Articles | Volume 20, issue 16
Research article
26 Aug 2020
Research article |  | 26 Aug 2020

Projecting ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models weighted by model performance and independence

Matt Amos, Paul J. Young, J. Scott Hosking, Jean-François Lamarque, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, David A. Plummer, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, and Yousuke Yamashita


Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Matt Amos on behalf of the Authors (08 May 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (22 May 2020) by Gunnar Myhre
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (28 May 2020)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (27 Jun 2020)
ED: Publish as is (15 Jul 2020) by Gunnar Myhre
Short summary
We present an updated projection of Antarctic ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models. To do so, we employ a method, more advanced and skilful than the current multi-model mean standard, which is applicable to other ensemble analyses. It calculates the performance and similarity of the models, which we then use to weight the model. Calculating model similarity allows us to account for models which are constructed from similar components.
Final-revised paper