Articles | Volume 20, issue 16
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9961–9977, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020

Special issue: Chemistry–Climate Modelling Initiative (CCMI) (ACP/AMT/ESSD/GMD...

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9961–9977, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020

Research article 26 Aug 2020

Research article | 26 Aug 2020

Projecting ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models weighted by model performance and independence

Matt Amos et al.

Data sets

The IGAC/SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Phase-1 (CCMI-1) model data output M. I. Hegglin and J.-F. Lamarque http://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/wcrp-ccmi/data/CCMI-1/output

CCMI Phase 1 National Centre for Atmospheric Research https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/project/CCMI1.html

Model code and software

Mattramos/Weighting-CCMI-ensemble: Weighting-CCMI-ensemble Matt Amos https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3624523

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Short summary
We present an updated projection of Antarctic ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models. To do so, we employ a method, more advanced and skilful than the current multi-model mean standard, which is applicable to other ensemble analyses. It calculates the performance and similarity of the models, which we then use to weight the model. Calculating model similarity allows us to account for models which are constructed from similar components.
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