Articles | Volume 20, issue 16
Research article
26 Aug 2020
Research article |  | 26 Aug 2020

Projecting ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models weighted by model performance and independence

Matt Amos, Paul J. Young, J. Scott Hosking, Jean-François Lamarque, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, David A. Plummer, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, and Yousuke Yamashita

Data sets

The IGAC/SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Phase-1 (CCMI-1) model data output M. I. Hegglin and J.-F. Lamarque

CCMI Phase 1 National Centre for Atmospheric Research

Model code and software

Mattramos/Weighting-CCMI-ensemble: Weighting-CCMI-ensemble Matt Amos

Short summary
We present an updated projection of Antarctic ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models. To do so, we employ a method, more advanced and skilful than the current multi-model mean standard, which is applicable to other ensemble analyses. It calculates the performance and similarity of the models, which we then use to weight the model. Calculating model similarity allows us to account for models which are constructed from similar components.
Final-revised paper