Articles | Volume 20, issue 24
Research article
21 Dec 2020
Research article |  | 21 Dec 2020

Dependence of predictability of precipitation in the northwestern Mediterranean coastal region on the strength of synoptic control

Christian Keil, Lucie Chabert, Olivier Nuissier, and Laure Raynaud

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Subject: Clouds and Precipitation | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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Cited articles

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Baur, F., Keil, C., and Craig, G. C.: Soil Moisture – Precipitation Coupling over Central Europe: Interactions between surface anomalies at different scales and its dynamical implication, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 2863–2875,, 2018. a
Short summary
During strong synoptic control, which dominates the weather on 80 % of the days in the 2-month HyMeX-SOP1 period, the domain-integrated precipitation predictability assessed with the normalized ensemble standard deviation is above average, the wet bias is smaller and the forecast quality is generally better. In contrast, the spatial forecast quality of the most intense precipitation in the afternoon, as quantified with its 95th percentile, is superior during weakly forced synoptic regimes.
Final-revised paper