Articles | Volume 20, issue 24
Research article
21 Dec 2020
Research article |  | 21 Dec 2020

Dependence of predictability of precipitation in the northwestern Mediterranean coastal region on the strength of synoptic control

Christian Keil, Lucie Chabert, Olivier Nuissier, and Laure Raynaud

Related authors

The impact of microphysical uncertainty conditional on initial and boundary condition uncertainty under varying synoptic control
Takumi Matsunobu, Christian Keil, and Christian Barthlott
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1273–1289,,, 2022
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Clouds and Precipitation | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Water isotopic characterisation of the cloud–circulation coupling in the North Atlantic trades – Part 1: A process-oriented evaluation of COSMOiso simulations with EUREC4A observations
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672,,, 2023
Short summary
Assimilation of 3D polarimetric microphysical retrievals in a convective-scale NWP system
Lucas Reimann, Clemens Simmer, and Silke Trömel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14219–14237,,, 2023
Short summary
Sensitivity of cloud-phase distribution to cloud microphysics and thermodynamics in simulated deep convective clouds and SEVIRI retrievals
Cunbo Han, Corinna Hoose, Martin Stengel, Quentin Coopman, and Andrew Barrett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14077–14095,,, 2023
Short summary
Assessing the destructiveness of tropical cyclones induced by anthropogenic aerosols in an atmosphere–ocean coupled framework
Yun Lin, Yuan Wang, Jen-Shan Hsieh, Jonathan H. Jiang, Qiong Su, Lijun Zhao, Michael Lavallee, and Renyi Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13835–13852,,, 2023
Short summary
Opinion: A critical evaluation of the evidence for aerosol invigoration of deep convection
Adam C. Varble, Adele L. Igel, Hugh Morrison, Wojciech W. Grabowski, and Zachary J. Lebo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13791–13808,,, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Anthes, R. A.: The General Question of Predictability, in: Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting, edited by: Ray, P. S., vol. II, pp. 636–656, Am. Meteorol. Soc., Boston, MA,, 1986. a
Bachmann, K., Keil, C., and Weissmann, M.: Impact of radar data assimilation and orography on predictability of deep convection, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 117–130,, 2019. a
Bachmann, K., Keil, C., Craig, G. C., Weissmann, M., and Welzbacher, C. A.: Predictability of Deep Convection in Idealized and Operational Forecasts: Effects of Radar Data Assimilation, Orography, and Synoptic Weather Regime, Mon. Weather Rev., 148, 63–81,, 2020. a, b, c
Bauer, P., Thorpe, A., and Brunet, G.: The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction, Nature, 525, 47–55,, 2015. a
Baur, F., Keil, C., and Craig, G. C.: Soil Moisture – Precipitation Coupling over Central Europe: Interactions between surface anomalies at different scales and its dynamical implication, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 2863–2875,, 2018. a
Short summary
During strong synoptic control, which dominates the weather on 80 % of the days in the 2-month HyMeX-SOP1 period, the domain-integrated precipitation predictability assessed with the normalized ensemble standard deviation is above average, the wet bias is smaller and the forecast quality is generally better. In contrast, the spatial forecast quality of the most intense precipitation in the afternoon, as quantified with its 95th percentile, is superior during weakly forced synoptic regimes.
Final-revised paper