Articles | Volume 20, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15851-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15851-2020
Research article
 | 
21 Dec 2020
Research article |  | 21 Dec 2020

Dependence of predictability of precipitation in the northwestern Mediterranean coastal region on the strength of synoptic control

Christian Keil, Lucie Chabert, Olivier Nuissier, and Laure Raynaud

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Short summary
During strong synoptic control, which dominates the weather on 80 % of the days in the 2-month HyMeX-SOP1 period, the domain-integrated precipitation predictability assessed with the normalized ensemble standard deviation is above average, the wet bias is smaller and the forecast quality is generally better. In contrast, the spatial forecast quality of the most intense precipitation in the afternoon, as quantified with its 95th percentile, is superior during weakly forced synoptic regimes.
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