Articles | Volume 20, issue 24
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15851–15865, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15851-2020

Special issue: Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean (ACP/AMT/GMD/HESS/NHESS/OS...

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15851–15865, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15851-2020

Research article 21 Dec 2020

Research article | 21 Dec 2020

Dependence of predictability of precipitation in the northwestern Mediterranean coastal region on the strength of synoptic control

Christian Keil et al.

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Short summary
During strong synoptic control, which dominates the weather on 80 % of the days in the 2-month HyMeX-SOP1 period, the domain-integrated precipitation predictability assessed with the normalized ensemble standard deviation is above average, the wet bias is smaller and the forecast quality is generally better. In contrast, the spatial forecast quality of the most intense precipitation in the afternoon, as quantified with its 95th percentile, is superior during weakly forced synoptic regimes.
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