Calibration of a multi-physics ensemble for estimating the uncertainty of a greenhouse gas atmospheric transport model

Díaz-Isaac, Liza I.; Lauvaux, Thomas; Bocquet, Marc; Davis, Kenneth J.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5695-2019

Articles | Volume 19, issue 8

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5695-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5695-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 8

Research article

|

30 Apr 2019

Research article |

| 30 Apr 2019

Calibration of a multi-physics ensemble for estimating the uncertainty of a greenhouse gas atmospheric transport model

Liza I. Díaz-Isaac, Thomas Lauvaux, Marc Bocquet, and Kenneth J. Davis

Data sets

NACP MCI: Tower Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, Upper Midwest Region, USA, 2007-2009 N. L. Miles, S. J. Richardson, K. J. Davis, A. E. Andrews, T. J. Griffis, V. Bandaru, and K. P. Hosman https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1202

Short summary

We demonstrate that transport model errors, one of the main contributors to the uncertainty in regional CO₂ inversions, can be represented by a small-size ensemble carefully calibrated with meteorological data. Our results also confirm transport model errors represent a significant fraction of the model–data mismatch in CO₂ mole fractions and hence in regional inverse CO₂ fluxes.