Articles | Volume 18, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The influence of internal variability on Earth's energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate sensitivity
Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
Thorsten Mauritsen
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Bjorn Stevens
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
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Cited
30 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impacts of the Unforced Pattern Effect on the Cloud Feedback in CERES Observations and Climate Models L. Chao et al. 10.1029/2021GL096299
- The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability N. Maher et al. 10.1029/2019MS001639
- How accurately can the climate sensitivity to $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ be estimated from historical climate change? J. Gregory et al. 10.1007/s00382-019-04991-y
- Magnitudes and Spatial Patterns of Interdecadal Temperature Variability in CMIP6 L. Parsons et al. 10.1029/2019GL086588
- Reconciling Conflicting Accounts of Local Radiative Feedbacks in Climate Models C. Hedemann et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0513.1
- Observational Constraint on the Climate Sensitivity to Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Changes Derived from the 1971–2017 Global Energy Budget J. Chenal et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0565.1
- How a Stable Greenhouse Effect on Earth Is Maintained Under Global Warming J. Feng et al. 10.1029/2022JD038124
- An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability A. Dessler & P. Forster 10.1029/2018JD028481
- Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate L. McBride et al. 10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
- Testing the assumptions in emergent constraints: why does the “emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability” work for CMIP5 and not CMIP6? M. Williamson et al. 10.5194/esd-15-829-2024
- Estimating Transient Climate Response in a Large‐Ensemble Global Climate Model Simulation B. Adams & A. Dessler 10.1029/2018GL080714
- Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections P. Frank 10.3389/feart.2019.00223
- Water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks in the climate system R. Colman & B. Soden 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.045002
- A refined model for the Earth’s global energy balance P. Ceppi & J. Gregory 10.1007/s00382-019-04825-x
- Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence R. Cooke & B. Wielicki 10.1007/s10584-018-2315-y
- Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse J. Annan & J. Hargreaves 10.5194/esd-11-347-2020
- An exponential-interval sampling method for evaluating equilibrium climate sensitivity via reducing internal variability noise S. Li & P. Huang 10.1186/s40562-022-00244-9
- A New Graphical Method to Diagnose the Impacts of Model Changes on Climate Sensitivity S. JAIN et al. 10.2151/jmsj.2021-021
- The Benefits of Continuous Local Regression for Quantifying Global Warming D. Clarke & M. Richardson 10.1029/2020EA001082
- An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Observations and Climate Models Using Different Energy Balance Frameworks L. Chao & A. Dessler 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0226.1
- Spatial Radiative Feedbacks from Internal Variability Using Multiple Regression J. Bloch-Johnson et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0396.1
- Potential Problems Measuring Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Record A. Dessler 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0476.1
- How atmospheric humidity drives the outgoing longwave radiation–surface temperature relationship and inter-model spread J. Feng et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acfb98
- An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence S. Sherwood et al. 10.1029/2019RG000678
- Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect C. Zhou et al. 10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x
- Negligible Unforced Historical Pattern Effect on Climate Feedback Strength Found in HadISST-Based AMIP Simulations N. Lewis & T. Mauritsen 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0941.1
- Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations Y. Dong et al. 10.1029/2021GL095778
- Energy budget constraints on historical radiative forcing T. Andrews & P. Forster 10.1038/s41558-020-0696-1
- Improved methods for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from transient warming simulations A. Dai et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05242-1
- Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3‐GC3.1 and UKESM1 T. Andrews et al. 10.1029/2019MS001866
30 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impacts of the Unforced Pattern Effect on the Cloud Feedback in CERES Observations and Climate Models L. Chao et al. 10.1029/2021GL096299
- The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability N. Maher et al. 10.1029/2019MS001639
- How accurately can the climate sensitivity to $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ be estimated from historical climate change? J. Gregory et al. 10.1007/s00382-019-04991-y
- Magnitudes and Spatial Patterns of Interdecadal Temperature Variability in CMIP6 L. Parsons et al. 10.1029/2019GL086588
- Reconciling Conflicting Accounts of Local Radiative Feedbacks in Climate Models C. Hedemann et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0513.1
- Observational Constraint on the Climate Sensitivity to Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Changes Derived from the 1971–2017 Global Energy Budget J. Chenal et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0565.1
- How a Stable Greenhouse Effect on Earth Is Maintained Under Global Warming J. Feng et al. 10.1029/2022JD038124
- An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability A. Dessler & P. Forster 10.1029/2018JD028481
- Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate L. McBride et al. 10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
- Testing the assumptions in emergent constraints: why does the “emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability” work for CMIP5 and not CMIP6? M. Williamson et al. 10.5194/esd-15-829-2024
- Estimating Transient Climate Response in a Large‐Ensemble Global Climate Model Simulation B. Adams & A. Dessler 10.1029/2018GL080714
- Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections P. Frank 10.3389/feart.2019.00223
- Water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks in the climate system R. Colman & B. Soden 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.045002
- A refined model for the Earth’s global energy balance P. Ceppi & J. Gregory 10.1007/s00382-019-04825-x
- Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence R. Cooke & B. Wielicki 10.1007/s10584-018-2315-y
- Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse J. Annan & J. Hargreaves 10.5194/esd-11-347-2020
- An exponential-interval sampling method for evaluating equilibrium climate sensitivity via reducing internal variability noise S. Li & P. Huang 10.1186/s40562-022-00244-9
- A New Graphical Method to Diagnose the Impacts of Model Changes on Climate Sensitivity S. JAIN et al. 10.2151/jmsj.2021-021
- The Benefits of Continuous Local Regression for Quantifying Global Warming D. Clarke & M. Richardson 10.1029/2020EA001082
- An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Observations and Climate Models Using Different Energy Balance Frameworks L. Chao & A. Dessler 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0226.1
- Spatial Radiative Feedbacks from Internal Variability Using Multiple Regression J. Bloch-Johnson et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0396.1
- Potential Problems Measuring Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Record A. Dessler 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0476.1
- How atmospheric humidity drives the outgoing longwave radiation–surface temperature relationship and inter-model spread J. Feng et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acfb98
- An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence S. Sherwood et al. 10.1029/2019RG000678
- Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect C. Zhou et al. 10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x
- Negligible Unforced Historical Pattern Effect on Climate Feedback Strength Found in HadISST-Based AMIP Simulations N. Lewis & T. Mauritsen 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0941.1
- Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations Y. Dong et al. 10.1029/2021GL095778
- Energy budget constraints on historical radiative forcing T. Andrews & P. Forster 10.1038/s41558-020-0696-1
- Improved methods for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from transient warming simulations A. Dai et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05242-1
- Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3‐GC3.1 and UKESM1 T. Andrews et al. 10.1029/2019MS001866
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 16 Aug 2024
Short summary
One of the most important parameters in climate science is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Estimates of this quantity based on 20th-century observations suggest low values of ECS (below 2 °C). We show that these calculations may be significantly in error. Together with other recent work on this problem, it seems probable that the ECS is larger than suggested by the 20th-century observations.
One of the most important parameters in climate science is the equilibrium climate sensitivity...
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