Articles | Volume 18, issue 7
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5147–5155, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5147–5155, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
17 Apr 2018
Research article
| 17 Apr 2018
The influence of internal variability on Earth's energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate sensitivity
Andrew E. Dessler et al.
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Total article views: 4,672 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Total article views: 2,337 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Cited
25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impacts of the Unforced Pattern Effect on the Cloud Feedback in CERES Observations and Climate Models L. Chao et al. 10.1029/2021GL096299
- The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability N. Maher et al. 10.1029/2019MS001639
- How accurately can the climate sensitivity to $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ be estimated from historical climate change? J. Gregory et al. 10.1007/s00382-019-04991-y
- Magnitudes and Spatial Patterns of Interdecadal Temperature Variability in CMIP6 L. Parsons et al. 10.1029/2019GL086588
- Slow Modes of Global Temperature Variability and Their Impact on Climate Sensitivity Estimates R. Wills et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-1013.1
- An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability A. Dessler & P. Forster 10.1029/2018JD028481
- Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate L. McBride et al. 10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
- Estimating Transient Climate Response in a Large‐Ensemble Global Climate Model Simulation B. Adams & A. Dessler 10.1029/2018GL080714
- Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections P. Frank 10.3389/feart.2019.00223
- Water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks in the climate system R. Colman & B. Soden 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.045002
- A refined model for the Earth’s global energy balance P. Ceppi & J. Gregory 10.1007/s00382-019-04825-x
- Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence R. Cooke & B. Wielicki 10.1007/s10584-018-2315-y
- Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse J. Annan & J. Hargreaves 10.5194/esd-11-347-2020
- A New Graphical Method to Diagnose the Impacts of Model Changes on Climate Sensitivity S. JAIN et al. 10.2151/jmsj.2021-021
- The Benefits of Continuous Local Regression for Quantifying Global Warming D. Clarke & M. Richardson 10.1029/2020EA001082
- An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Observations and Climate Models Using Different Energy Balance Frameworks L. Chao & A. Dessler 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0226.1
- Spatial Radiative Feedbacks from Internal Variability Using Multiple Regression J. Bloch-Johnson et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0396.1
- Potential Problems Measuring Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Record A. Dessler 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0476.1
- An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence S. Sherwood et al. 10.1029/2019RG000678
- Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect C. Zhou et al. 10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x
- Negligible Unforced Historical Pattern Effect on Climate Feedback Strength Found in HadISST-Based AMIP Simulations N. Lewis & T. Mauritsen 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0941.1
- Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations Y. Dong et al. 10.1029/2021GL095778
- Energy budget constraints on historical radiative forcing T. Andrews & P. Forster 10.1038/s41558-020-0696-1
- Improved methods for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from transient warming simulations A. Dai et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05242-1
- Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3‐GC3.1 and UKESM1 T. Andrews et al. 10.1029/2019MS001866
25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impacts of the Unforced Pattern Effect on the Cloud Feedback in CERES Observations and Climate Models L. Chao et al. 10.1029/2021GL096299
- The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability N. Maher et al. 10.1029/2019MS001639
- How accurately can the climate sensitivity to $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ be estimated from historical climate change? J. Gregory et al. 10.1007/s00382-019-04991-y
- Magnitudes and Spatial Patterns of Interdecadal Temperature Variability in CMIP6 L. Parsons et al. 10.1029/2019GL086588
- Slow Modes of Global Temperature Variability and Their Impact on Climate Sensitivity Estimates R. Wills et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-1013.1
- An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability A. Dessler & P. Forster 10.1029/2018JD028481
- Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate L. McBride et al. 10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
- Estimating Transient Climate Response in a Large‐Ensemble Global Climate Model Simulation B. Adams & A. Dessler 10.1029/2018GL080714
- Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections P. Frank 10.3389/feart.2019.00223
- Water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks in the climate system R. Colman & B. Soden 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.045002
- A refined model for the Earth’s global energy balance P. Ceppi & J. Gregory 10.1007/s00382-019-04825-x
- Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence R. Cooke & B. Wielicki 10.1007/s10584-018-2315-y
- Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse J. Annan & J. Hargreaves 10.5194/esd-11-347-2020
- A New Graphical Method to Diagnose the Impacts of Model Changes on Climate Sensitivity S. JAIN et al. 10.2151/jmsj.2021-021
- The Benefits of Continuous Local Regression for Quantifying Global Warming D. Clarke & M. Richardson 10.1029/2020EA001082
- An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Observations and Climate Models Using Different Energy Balance Frameworks L. Chao & A. Dessler 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0226.1
- Spatial Radiative Feedbacks from Internal Variability Using Multiple Regression J. Bloch-Johnson et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0396.1
- Potential Problems Measuring Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Record A. Dessler 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0476.1
- An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence S. Sherwood et al. 10.1029/2019RG000678
- Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect C. Zhou et al. 10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x
- Negligible Unforced Historical Pattern Effect on Climate Feedback Strength Found in HadISST-Based AMIP Simulations N. Lewis & T. Mauritsen 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0941.1
- Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations Y. Dong et al. 10.1029/2021GL095778
- Energy budget constraints on historical radiative forcing T. Andrews & P. Forster 10.1038/s41558-020-0696-1
- Improved methods for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from transient warming simulations A. Dai et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05242-1
- Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3‐GC3.1 and UKESM1 T. Andrews et al. 10.1029/2019MS001866
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 28 Jan 2023
Short summary
One of the most important parameters in climate science is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Estimates of this quantity based on 20th-century observations suggest low values of ECS (below 2 °C). We show that these calculations may be significantly in error. Together with other recent work on this problem, it seems probable that the ECS is larger than suggested by the 20th-century observations.
One of the most important parameters in climate science is the equilibrium climate sensitivity...
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