Articles | Volume 18, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Apr 2018
Research article |
| 17 Apr 2018
| 17 Apr 2018
The influence of internal variability on Earth's energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate sensitivity
Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
Thorsten Mauritsen
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Bjorn Stevens
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
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Total article views: 6,741 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Cited
31 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impacts of the Unforced Pattern Effect on the Cloud Feedback in CERES Observations and Climate Models L. Chao et al. 10.1029/2021GL096299
- The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability N. Maher et al. 10.1029/2019MS001639
- Constraining net long-term climate feedback from satellite-observed internal variability possible by the mid-2030s A. Uribe et al. 10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024
- How accurately can the climate sensitivity to $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ be estimated from historical climate change? J. Gregory et al. 10.1007/s00382-019-04991-y
- Magnitudes and Spatial Patterns of Interdecadal Temperature Variability in CMIP6 L. Parsons et al. 10.1029/2019GL086588
- Reconciling Conflicting Accounts of Local Radiative Feedbacks in Climate Models C. Hedemann et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0513.1
- Observational Constraint on the Climate Sensitivity to Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Changes Derived from the 1971–2017 Global Energy Budget J. Chenal et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0565.1
- How a Stable Greenhouse Effect on Earth Is Maintained Under Global Warming J. Feng et al. 10.1029/2022JD038124
- An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability A. Dessler & P. Forster 10.1029/2018JD028481
- Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate L. McBride et al. 10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
- Testing the assumptions in emergent constraints: why does the “emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability” work for CMIP5 and not CMIP6? M. Williamson et al. 10.5194/esd-15-829-2024
- Estimating Transient Climate Response in a Large‐Ensemble Global Climate Model Simulation B. Adams & A. Dessler 10.1029/2018GL080714
- Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections P. Frank 10.3389/feart.2019.00223
- Water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks in the climate system R. Colman & B. Soden 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.045002
- A refined model for the Earth’s global energy balance P. Ceppi & J. Gregory 10.1007/s00382-019-04825-x
- Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence R. Cooke & B. Wielicki 10.1007/s10584-018-2315-y
- Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse J. Annan & J. Hargreaves 10.5194/esd-11-347-2020
- An exponential-interval sampling method for evaluating equilibrium climate sensitivity via reducing internal variability noise S. Li & P. Huang 10.1186/s40562-022-00244-9
- A New Graphical Method to Diagnose the Impacts of Model Changes on Climate Sensitivity S. JAIN et al. 10.2151/jmsj.2021-021
- The Benefits of Continuous Local Regression for Quantifying Global Warming D. Clarke & M. Richardson 10.1029/2020EA001082
- An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Observations and Climate Models Using Different Energy Balance Frameworks L. Chao & A. Dessler 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0226.1
- Spatial Radiative Feedbacks from Internal Variability Using Multiple Regression J. Bloch-Johnson et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0396.1
- Potential Problems Measuring Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Record A. Dessler 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0476.1
- How atmospheric humidity drives the outgoing longwave radiation–surface temperature relationship and inter-model spread J. Feng et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acfb98
- An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence S. Sherwood et al. 10.1029/2019RG000678
- Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect C. Zhou et al. 10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x
- Negligible Unforced Historical Pattern Effect on Climate Feedback Strength Found in HadISST-Based AMIP Simulations N. Lewis & T. Mauritsen 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0941.1
- Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations Y. Dong et al. 10.1029/2021GL095778
- Energy budget constraints on historical radiative forcing T. Andrews & P. Forster 10.1038/s41558-020-0696-1
- Improved methods for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from transient warming simulations A. Dai et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05242-1
- Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3‐GC3.1 and UKESM1 T. Andrews et al. 10.1029/2019MS001866
31 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impacts of the Unforced Pattern Effect on the Cloud Feedback in CERES Observations and Climate Models L. Chao et al. 10.1029/2021GL096299
- The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability N. Maher et al. 10.1029/2019MS001639
- Constraining net long-term climate feedback from satellite-observed internal variability possible by the mid-2030s A. Uribe et al. 10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024
- How accurately can the climate sensitivity to $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ be estimated from historical climate change? J. Gregory et al. 10.1007/s00382-019-04991-y
- Magnitudes and Spatial Patterns of Interdecadal Temperature Variability in CMIP6 L. Parsons et al. 10.1029/2019GL086588
- Reconciling Conflicting Accounts of Local Radiative Feedbacks in Climate Models C. Hedemann et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0513.1
- Observational Constraint on the Climate Sensitivity to Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Changes Derived from the 1971–2017 Global Energy Budget J. Chenal et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0565.1
- How a Stable Greenhouse Effect on Earth Is Maintained Under Global Warming J. Feng et al. 10.1029/2022JD038124
- An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability A. Dessler & P. Forster 10.1029/2018JD028481
- Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate L. McBride et al. 10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
- Testing the assumptions in emergent constraints: why does the “emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability” work for CMIP5 and not CMIP6? M. Williamson et al. 10.5194/esd-15-829-2024
- Estimating Transient Climate Response in a Large‐Ensemble Global Climate Model Simulation B. Adams & A. Dessler 10.1029/2018GL080714
- Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections P. Frank 10.3389/feart.2019.00223
- Water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks in the climate system R. Colman & B. Soden 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.045002
- A refined model for the Earth’s global energy balance P. Ceppi & J. Gregory 10.1007/s00382-019-04825-x
- Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence R. Cooke & B. Wielicki 10.1007/s10584-018-2315-y
- Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse J. Annan & J. Hargreaves 10.5194/esd-11-347-2020
- An exponential-interval sampling method for evaluating equilibrium climate sensitivity via reducing internal variability noise S. Li & P. Huang 10.1186/s40562-022-00244-9
- A New Graphical Method to Diagnose the Impacts of Model Changes on Climate Sensitivity S. JAIN et al. 10.2151/jmsj.2021-021
- The Benefits of Continuous Local Regression for Quantifying Global Warming D. Clarke & M. Richardson 10.1029/2020EA001082
- An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Observations and Climate Models Using Different Energy Balance Frameworks L. Chao & A. Dessler 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0226.1
- Spatial Radiative Feedbacks from Internal Variability Using Multiple Regression J. Bloch-Johnson et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0396.1
- Potential Problems Measuring Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Record A. Dessler 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0476.1
- How atmospheric humidity drives the outgoing longwave radiation–surface temperature relationship and inter-model spread J. Feng et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acfb98
- An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence S. Sherwood et al. 10.1029/2019RG000678
- Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect C. Zhou et al. 10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x
- Negligible Unforced Historical Pattern Effect on Climate Feedback Strength Found in HadISST-Based AMIP Simulations N. Lewis & T. Mauritsen 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0941.1
- Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations Y. Dong et al. 10.1029/2021GL095778
- Energy budget constraints on historical radiative forcing T. Andrews & P. Forster 10.1038/s41558-020-0696-1
- Improved methods for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from transient warming simulations A. Dai et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05242-1
- Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3‐GC3.1 and UKESM1 T. Andrews et al. 10.1029/2019MS001866
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 29 Jul 2025
Short summary
One of the most important parameters in climate science is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Estimates of this quantity based on 20th-century observations suggest low values of ECS (below 2 °C). We show that these calculations may be significantly in error. Together with other recent work on this problem, it seems probable that the ECS is larger than suggested by the 20th-century observations.
One of the most important parameters in climate science is the equilibrium climate sensitivity...
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Final-revised paper
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