Potential influences of neglecting aerosol effects on the NCEP GFS precipitation forecast

Jiang, Mengjiao; Feng, Jinqin; Li, Zhanqing; Sun, Ruiyu; Hou, Yu-Tai; Zhu, Yuejian; Wan, Bingcheng; Guo, Jianping; Cribb, Maureen

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13967-2017

Articles | Volume 17, issue 22

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13967-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Regional transport and transformation of air pollution in...

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13967-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 22

Research article

|

23 Nov 2017

Research article |

| 23 Nov 2017

Potential influences of neglecting aerosol effects on the NCEP GFS precipitation forecast

Mengjiao Jiang, Jinqin Feng, Zhanqing Li, Ruiyu Sun, Yu-Tai Hou, Yuejian Zhu, Bingcheng Wan, Jianping Guo, and Maureen Cribb

Data sets

Ground meteorological data acquired in Fujian province China Meteorological Administration (CMA) http://data.cma.cn/

2B-GEOPROF-LIDAR P2_R04 CloudSat Data Processing Center http://www.cloudsat.cira.colostate.edu/data-products/level-2b/2b-geoprof-lidar?term=48

ECMWF-AUX P_R04 CloudSat Data Processing Center http://www.cloudsat.cira.colostate.edu/data-products/level-aux/ecmwf-aux?term=64

MYD08_D3 NASA MODIS Atmosphere Science Team https://modis-atmosphere.gsfc.nasa.gov/MOD08_D3/index.html

MERRA-2 inst3_2d_gas_Nx: 2d, 3-Hourly, Instantaneous, Single-Level, Assimilation, Aerosol Optical Depth Analysis Version 5.12.4 data NASA/GSFC/GMAO https://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets?page=1&keywords=MERRA-2

CPC unified gauge-based precipitation data NOAA/CPC http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/precip/CPC_UNI_PRCP/GAUGE_GLB/RT/

GFS data NOAA/NCEP https://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data/gfs4/

GEFS data NOAA/NCEP https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-ensemble-forecast-system-gefs

Short summary

Aerosol–cloud interactions have been recognized as playing an important role in precipitation. As a benchmark evaluation of model results that exclude aerosol effects, the operational precipitation forecast (before any aerosol effects included) is evaluated using multiple datasets with the goal of determining if there is any link between the model bias and aerosol loading. The forecast model overestimates light and underestimates heavy rain. Aerosols suppress light rain and enhance heavy rain.