Articles | Volume 16, issue 11
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7317–7333, 2016
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7317–7333, 2016
Research article
13 Jun 2016
Research article | 13 Jun 2016

Simulated 2050 aviation radiative forcing from contrails and aerosols

Chih-Chieh Chen and Andrew Gettelman

Related authors

The E3SM Diagnostics Package (E3SM Diags v2.6): A Python-based Diagnostics Package for Earth System Models Evaluation
Chengzhu Zhang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Ryan Forsyth, Tom Vo, Shaocheng Xie, Zeshawn Shaheen, Gerald L. Potter, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Charles S. Zender, Wuyin Lin, Chih-Chieh Chen, Chris R. Terai, Salil Mahajan, Tian Zhou, Karthik Balaguru, Qi Tang, Cheng Tao, Yuying Zhang, Todd Emmenegger, and Paul Ullrich
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.,,, 2022
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
The climate impact of COVID-19-induced contrail changes
Andrew Gettelman, Chieh-Chieh Chen, and Charles G. Bardeen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9405–9416,,, 2021
Short summary
Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi)
Neal Butchart, James A. Anstey, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey, Charles McLandress, Andrew C. Bushell, Yoshio Kawatani, Young-Ha Kim, Francois Lott, John Scinocca, Timothy N. Stockdale, Martin Andrews, Omar Bellprat, Peter Braesicke, Chiara Cagnazzo, Chih-Chieh Chen, Hye-Yeong Chun, Mikhail Dobrynin, Rolando R. Garcia, Javier Garcia-Serrano, Lesley J. Gray, Laura Holt, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Hiroaki Naoe, Holger Pohlmann, Jadwiga H. Richter, Adam A. Scaife, Verena Schenzinger, Federico Serva, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, Kohei Yoshida, and Seiji Yukimoto
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1009–1032,,, 2018
Short summary
The path to CAM6: coupled simulations with CAM5.4 and CAM5.5
Peter A. Bogenschutz, Andrew Gettelman, Cecile Hannay, Vincent E. Larson, Richard B. Neale, Cheryl Craig, and Chih-Chieh Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 235–255,,, 2018
Short summary
Coupled Chemistry-Climate Effects from 2050 Projected Aviation Emissions
Andrew Gettelman, Chih-Chieh Chen, Mark Z. Jacobson, Mary A. Cameron, Donald J. Wuebbles, and Arezoo Khodayari
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,,, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Clouds and Precipitation | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Convective updrafts near sea-breeze fronts
Shizuo Fu, Richard Rotunno, and Huiwen Xue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7727–7738,,, 2022
Short summary
Evaluation of modelled summertime convective storms using polarimetric radar observations
Prabhakar Shrestha, Silke Trömel, Raquel Evaristo, and Clemens Simmer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7593–7618,,, 2022
Short summary
Evaluating seasonal and regional distribution of snowfall in regional climate model simulations in the Arctic
Annakaisa von Lerber, Mario Mech, Annette Rinke, Damao Zhang, Melanie Lauer, Ana Radovan, Irina Gorodetskaya, and Susanne Crewell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7287–7317,,, 2022
Short summary
Modeling impacts of ice-nucleating particles from marine aerosols on mixed-phase orographic clouds during 2015 ACAPEX field campaign
Yun Lin, Jiwen Fan, Pengfei Li, Lai-yung Ruby Leung, Paul J. DeMott, Lexie Goldberger, Jennifer Comstock, Ying Liu, Jong-Hoon Jeong, and Jason Tomlinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6749–6771,,, 2022
Short summary
Influences of an entrainment–mixing parameterization on numerical simulations of cumulus and stratocumulus clouds
Xiaoqi Xu, Chunsong Lu, Yangang Liu, Shi Luo, Xin Zhou, Satoshi Endo, Lei Zhu, and Yuan Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5459–5475,,, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Albrecht, B.: Aerosols, cloud microphysics, and fractional cloudiness, Science, 245, 1227–1230, 1989.
Appleman, H.: The formation of exhaust condensation trails by jet aircraft, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 34, 14–20, 1953.
Barrett, S., Britter, R. E., and Waitz, I. A.: Global mortality to aircraft cruise emissions, Environ. Sci. Technol., 44, 7736–7742,, 2010a.
Barret, S., Prather, M., Penner, J., Selkirk, H., Balasubramania, S., Dopelheuer, A., Fleming, G., Gupta, M., Halthore, R., Hileman, J., Jacobson, M., Kuhn, S., Lukachko, S., Miake-Lye, R., Petzold, A., Roof, C., Schaefer, M., Schumann, U., Waitz, I., and Wayson, R.: Guidance on the Use of AEDT Gridded aircraft Emissions in Atmospheric Models. MIT Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment Rep. LAE-2010-008-N, 13 pp., available at: (last access: 20 September 2012), 2010b.
Boucher, O., Randall, D., Artaxo, P., Bretherton, C., Feingold, G., Forster, P., Kerminen, V. M., Kondo, Y., Liao, H., Lohmann, U., Rasch, P., Satheesh, S. K., Sherwood, S., Stevens, B., and Zhang, X. Y.: Clouds and aerosols, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group 1 (WG)1 Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M. M. B., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013.
Short summary
The impact of aviation emissions through 2050 is simulated by a comprehensive global climate model. Four different future emission scenarios of the same flight tracks are considered. The results reveal that the global radiative forcing of contrail cirrus is positive and can increase by a factor of 7 in 2050 from the 2006 level. The aviation aerosols can produce negative forcing, mainly over the oceans, and increase by a factor of 4 in 2050 from the 2006 level.
Final-revised paper