Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2007–2011, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2007-2016
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2007–2011, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2007-2016

Research article 23 Feb 2016

Research article | 23 Feb 2016

On the progress of the 2015–2016 El Niño event

Costas A. Varotsos1, Chris G. Tzanis1, and Nicholas V. Sarlis2 Costas A. Varotsos et al.
  • 1Climate Research Group, Division of Environmental Physics and Meteorology, Faculty of Physics, University of Athens, University Campus Bldg. Phys. V, Athens, 157 84, Greece
  • 2Department of Solid State Physics, Faculty of Physics, School of Science, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis Zografos, 157 84 Athens, Greece

Abstract. It has been recently reported that the current 2015–2016 El Niño could become "one of the strongest on record". To further explore this claim, we performed the new analysis described in detail in Varotsos et al. (2015) that allows the detection of precursory signals of the strong El Niño events by using a recently developed non-linear dynamics tool. In this context, the analysis of the Southern Oscillation Index time series for the period 1876–2015 shows that the running 2015–2016 El Niño would be rather a "moderate to strong" or even a "strong" event and not “one of the strongest on record", as that of 1997–1998.

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It has been recently reported that the current 2015–2016 El Niño could become "one of the strongest on record". To further explore this claim, we performed a new analysis that allows the detection of precursory signals of the strong El Niño events by using a recently developed non-linear dynamics tool. The analysis of the SOI time series shows that the 2015–2016 El Niño would be rather a "moderate to strong" or even a "strong” event and not "one of the strongest on record", as that of 1997–1998.
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