Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4563-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4563-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 May 2014
Research article |
| 12 May 2014
Growth of climate change commitments from HFC banks and emissions
G. J. M. Velders
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, the Netherlands
S. Solomon
Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
J. S. Daniel
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
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Megan J. Lickley, John S. Daniel, Laura A. McBride, Ross J. Salawitch, and Guus J. M. Velders
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13081–13099, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13081-2024, 2024
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The expected ozone recovery date was delayed by 17 years between the 2006 and 2022 international scientific assessments of ozone depletion. We quantify the primary drivers of this delay. Changes in the metric used to estimate ozone recovery explain ca. 5 years of this delay. Of the remaining 12 years, changes in estimated banks, atmospheric lifetimes, and emission projections explain 4, 3.5, and 3 years of this delay, respectively.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Guus J. M. Velders, John S. Daniel, Stephen A. Montzka, Isaac Vimont, Matthew Rigby, Paul B. Krummel, Jens Muhle, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, and Dickon Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6087–6101, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022, 2022
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The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past as a result of the phasing out of ozone-depleting substances. Observations indicate that HFCs are used much less in certain refrigeration applications than previously projected. Current policies are projected to reduce emissions and the surface temperature contribution of HFCs from 0.28–0.44 °C to 0.14–0.31 °C in 2100. The Kigali Amendment is projected to reduce the contributions further to 0.04 °C in 2100.
Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Nicolas Moussiopoulos, Alexander Baklanov, John Bartzis, Isabelle Coll, Sandro Finardi, Rainer Friedrich, Camilla Geels, Tiia Grönholm, Tomas Halenka, Matthias Ketzel, Androniki Maragkidou, Volker Matthias, Jana Moldanova, Leonidas Ntziachristos, Klaus Schäfer, Peter Suppan, George Tsegas, Greg Carmichael, Vicente Franco, Steve Hanna, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Guus J. M. Velders, and Jaakko Kukkonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4615–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4615-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4615-2022, 2022
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This review of air quality research focuses on developments over the past decade. The article considers current and future challenges that are important from air quality research and policy perspectives and highlights emerging prominent gaps of knowledge. The review also examines how air pollution management needs to adapt to new challenges and makes recommendations to guide the direction for future air quality research within the wider community and to provide support for policy.
Liji M. David, Mary Barth, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pallav Purohit, Guus J. M. Velders, Sam Glaser, and A. R. Ravishankara
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We calculated the expected concentrations of trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) from the atmospheric breakdown of HFO-1234yf (CF3CF=CH2), a substitute for global warming hydrofluorocarbons, emitted now and in the future by India, China, and the Middle East. We used two chemical transport models. We conclude that the projected emissions through 2040 would not be detrimental, given the current knowledge of the effects of TFA on humans and ecosystems.
Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Jared Lewis, Matthew J. Gidden, Elisabeth Vogel, Mandy Freund, Urs Beyerle, Claudia Gessner, Alexander Nauels, Nico Bauer, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Andrew John, Paul B. Krummel, Gunnar Luderer, Nicolai Meinshausen, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Stefan Reimann, Steven J. Smith, Marten van den Berg, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, and Ray H. J. Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020
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This study provides the future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations under the new set of so-called SSP scenarios (the successors of the IPCC SRES and previous representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios). The projected CO2 concentrations range from 350 ppm for low-emission scenarios by 2150 to more than 2000 ppm under the high-emission scenarios. We also provide concentrations, latitudinal gradients, and seasonality for most of the other 42 considered GHGs.
Malte Meinshausen, Elisabeth Vogel, Alexander Nauels, Katja Lorbacher, Nicolai Meinshausen, David M. Etheridge, Paul J. Fraser, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Cathy M. Trudinger, Paul B. Krummel, Urs Beyerle, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Ian G. Enting, Rachel M. Law, Chris R. Lunder, Simon O'Doherty, Ron G. Prinn, Stefan Reimann, Mauro Rubino, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ray Weiss
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017
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Climate change is primarily driven by human-induced increases of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Based on ongoing community efforts (e.g. AGAGE and NOAA networks, ice cores), this study presents historical concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O and 40 other GHGs from year 0 to year 2014. The data is recommended as input for climate models for pre-industrial, historical runs under CMIP6. Global means, but also latitudinal by monthly surface concentration fields are provided.
S. Tegtmeier, F. Ziska, I. Pisso, B. Quack, G. J. M. Velders, X. Yang, and K. Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13647–13663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13647-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13647-2015, 2015
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At present, man-made halogens and natural oceanic substances both contribute to the observed ozone depletion. Emissions of the anthropogenic halogens have been reduced, whereas emissions of the natural substances are expected to increase in future climate due to anthropogenic activities affecting oceanic processes. We assess the impact of these oceanic substances on ozone by weighting their emissions with their potential to destroy ozone for current conditions and future projections.
G. J. M. Velders and J. S. Daniel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2757–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2757-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2757-2014, 2014
Y. Xu, D. Zaelke, G. J. M. Velders, and V. Ramanathan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6083–6089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6083-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6083-2013, 2013
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The expected ozone recovery date was delayed by 17 years between the 2006 and 2022 international scientific assessments of ozone depletion. We quantify the primary drivers of this delay. Changes in the metric used to estimate ozone recovery explain ca. 5 years of this delay. Of the remaining 12 years, changes in estimated banks, atmospheric lifetimes, and emission projections explain 4, 3.5, and 3 years of this delay, respectively.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Megan Jeramaz Lickley, John S. Daniel, Eric L. Fleming, Stefan Reimann, and Susan Solomon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11125–11136, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11125-2022, 2022
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Halocarbons contained in equipment continue to be emitted after production has ceased. These
banksmust be carefully accounted for in evaluating compliance with the Montreal Protocol. We extend a Bayesian model to the suite of regulated chemicals subject to banking. We find that banks are substantially larger than previous estimates, and we identify banks by chemical and equipment type whose future emissions will contribute to global warming and delay ozone-hole recovery if left unrecovered.
Guus J. M. Velders, John S. Daniel, Stephen A. Montzka, Isaac Vimont, Matthew Rigby, Paul B. Krummel, Jens Muhle, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, and Dickon Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6087–6101, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022, 2022
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The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past as a result of the phasing out of ozone-depleting substances. Observations indicate that HFCs are used much less in certain refrigeration applications than previously projected. Current policies are projected to reduce emissions and the surface temperature contribution of HFCs from 0.28–0.44 °C to 0.14–0.31 °C in 2100. The Kigali Amendment is projected to reduce the contributions further to 0.04 °C in 2100.
Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Nicolas Moussiopoulos, Alexander Baklanov, John Bartzis, Isabelle Coll, Sandro Finardi, Rainer Friedrich, Camilla Geels, Tiia Grönholm, Tomas Halenka, Matthias Ketzel, Androniki Maragkidou, Volker Matthias, Jana Moldanova, Leonidas Ntziachristos, Klaus Schäfer, Peter Suppan, George Tsegas, Greg Carmichael, Vicente Franco, Steve Hanna, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Guus J. M. Velders, and Jaakko Kukkonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4615–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4615-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4615-2022, 2022
Short summary
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This review of air quality research focuses on developments over the past decade. The article considers current and future challenges that are important from air quality research and policy perspectives and highlights emerging prominent gaps of knowledge. The review also examines how air pollution management needs to adapt to new challenges and makes recommendations to guide the direction for future air quality research within the wider community and to provide support for policy.
Liji M. David, Mary Barth, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pallav Purohit, Guus J. M. Velders, Sam Glaser, and A. R. Ravishankara
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14833–14849, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14833-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14833-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We calculated the expected concentrations of trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) from the atmospheric breakdown of HFO-1234yf (CF3CF=CH2), a substitute for global warming hydrofluorocarbons, emitted now and in the future by India, China, and the Middle East. We used two chemical transport models. We conclude that the projected emissions through 2040 would not be detrimental, given the current knowledge of the effects of TFA on humans and ecosystems.
Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Jared Lewis, Matthew J. Gidden, Elisabeth Vogel, Mandy Freund, Urs Beyerle, Claudia Gessner, Alexander Nauels, Nico Bauer, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Andrew John, Paul B. Krummel, Gunnar Luderer, Nicolai Meinshausen, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Stefan Reimann, Steven J. Smith, Marten van den Berg, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, and Ray H. J. Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides the future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations under the new set of so-called SSP scenarios (the successors of the IPCC SRES and previous representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios). The projected CO2 concentrations range from 350 ppm for low-emission scenarios by 2150 to more than 2000 ppm under the high-emission scenarios. We also provide concentrations, latitudinal gradients, and seasonality for most of the other 42 considered GHGs.
Malte Meinshausen, Elisabeth Vogel, Alexander Nauels, Katja Lorbacher, Nicolai Meinshausen, David M. Etheridge, Paul J. Fraser, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Cathy M. Trudinger, Paul B. Krummel, Urs Beyerle, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Ian G. Enting, Rachel M. Law, Chris R. Lunder, Simon O'Doherty, Ron G. Prinn, Stefan Reimann, Mauro Rubino, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ray Weiss
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is primarily driven by human-induced increases of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Based on ongoing community efforts (e.g. AGAGE and NOAA networks, ice cores), this study presents historical concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O and 40 other GHGs from year 0 to year 2014. The data is recommended as input for climate models for pre-industrial, historical runs under CMIP6. Global means, but also latitudinal by monthly surface concentration fields are provided.
S. Tegtmeier, F. Ziska, I. Pisso, B. Quack, G. J. M. Velders, X. Yang, and K. Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13647–13663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13647-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13647-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
At present, man-made halogens and natural oceanic substances both contribute to the observed ozone depletion. Emissions of the anthropogenic halogens have been reduced, whereas emissions of the natural substances are expected to increase in future climate due to anthropogenic activities affecting oceanic processes. We assess the impact of these oceanic substances on ozone by weighting their emissions with their potential to destroy ozone for current conditions and future projections.
G. J. M. Velders and J. S. Daniel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2757–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2757-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2757-2014, 2014
Y. Xu, D. Zaelke, G. J. M. Velders, and V. Ramanathan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6083–6089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6083-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6083-2013, 2013
B. Hassler, P. J. Young, R. W. Portmann, G. E. Bodeker, J. S. Daniel, K. H. Rosenlof, and S. Solomon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5533–5550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5533-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5533-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
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Climate-driven biogenic emissions alleviate the impact of human-made emission reductions on O3 control in the Pearl River Delta region, southern China
Impacts of wildfire smoke aerosols on near-surface ozone photochemistry
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Modelling Arctic lower-tropospheric ozone: processes controlling seasonal variations
Influence of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds emission changes on tropospheric ozone variability, trends and radiative effect
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Characterization of reactive oxidized nitrogen in the global upper troposphere using recent and historic commercial and research aircraft campaigns and GEOS-Chem
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Comparative ozone production sensitivity to NOx and VOCs in Quito, Ecuador, and Santiago, Chile
South Asia anthropogenic ammonia emission inversion through assimilating IASI observations
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Regional and sectoral contributions of NOx and reactive carbon emission sources to global trends in tropospheric ozone during the 2000–2018 period
Underappreciated contributions of biogenic volatile organic compounds from urban green spaces to ozone pollution
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Shifts in global atmospheric oxidant chemistry from land cover change
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Enhanced understanding of atmospheric blocking modulation on ozone dynamics within a high-resolution Earth system model
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Natural emissions of VOC and NOx over Africa constrained by TROPOMI HCHO and NO2 data using the MAGRITTEv1.1 model
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Effects of different emission inventories on tropospheric ozone and methane lifetime
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Xiaobo Wang, Yuzhong Zhang, Tamás Bozóki, Ruosi Liang, Xinchun Xie, Shutao Zhao, Rui Wang, Yujia Zhao, and Shuai Sun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8929–8942, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8929-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8929-2025, 2025
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Schumann resonance observations are used to parameterise lightning NOx emissions to better capture global lightning trends and variability. Updated simulations reveal insignificant trends but greater variability in lightning NOx emissions, impacting tropospheric NOx, O3, and OH. Lightning generally counteracts non-lightning factors, reducing the inter-annual variability of tropospheric O3 and OH. Variations in global lightning play an important role in understanding the atmospheric methane budget.
Nan Wang, Song Liu, Jiawei Xu, Yanyu Wang, Chun Li, Yuning Xie, Hua Lu, and Fumo Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8859–8870, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8859-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8859-2025, 2025
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We found that climate warming and changes in vegetation have increased biogenic volatile organic compound emissions in the Pearl River Delta region. These increasing natural emissions, mainly due to climate warming, are weakening the benefits of reducing human-made emissions through control, leading to higher ozone levels. This work helps us understand how climate change influences air quality and provides important insights for improving pollution control strategies in the future.
Jiaqi Shen, Ronald C. Cohen, Glenn M. Wolfe, and Xiaomeng Jin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8701–8718, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8701-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8701-2025, 2025
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This study shows large chemical and radiative effects of smoke aerosols from fires on near-surface ozone production. Aerosol loading and NOx levels are identified as the primary factors influencing these effects. Furthermore, we show that the ratio of surface PM2.5 to NO2 tropospheric column can be used as an indicator for identifying aerosol-dominated regimes, facilitating the assessment of aerosol impacts on ozone formation through satellite observations.
Irene Cheng, Amanda Cole, Leiming Zhang, and Alexandra Steffen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8591–8611, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8591-2025, 2025
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Using the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model and observations, we showed that natural surface emission (wildfires and re-emitted Hg) dominated anthropogenic contributions to total gaseous mercury (TGM). Decreasing TGM was due to reduced shipping, local combustion, and regional emissions. Relative contributions from natural surface emissions increased by 0.3–1.8 % yr-1. Results showed Hg control measures have been effective, but greater attention is needed for monitoring surface re-emissions.
Wanmin Gong, Stephen R. Beagley, Kenjiro Toyota, Henrik Skov, Jesper Heile Christensen, Alex Lupu, Diane Pendlebury, Junhua Zhang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Roberto Sommariva, Peter Effertz, John W. Halfacre, Nis Jepsen, Rigel Kivi, Theodore K. Koenig, Katrin Müller, Claus Nordstrøm, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Paul B. Shepson, William R. Simpson, Sverre Solberg, Ralf M. Staebler, David W. Tarasick, Roeland Van Malderen, and Mika Vestenius
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8355–8405, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8355-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8355-2025, 2025
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This study showed that the springtime O3 depletion plays a critical role in driving the surface O3 seasonal cycle in the central Arctic. The O3 depletion events, while occurring most notably within the lowest few hundred metres above the Arctic Ocean, can induce a 5–7 % loss in the pan-Arctic tropospheric O3 burden during springtime. The study also found enhancements in O3 and NOy (mostly peroxyacetyl nitrate) concentrations in the Arctic due to northern boreal wildfires, particularly at higher altitudes.
Suvarna Fadnavis, Yasin Elshorbany, Jerald Ziemke, Brice Barret, Alexandru Rap, P. R. Satheesh Chandran, Richard J. Pope, Vijay Sagar, Domenico Taraborrelli, Eric Le Flochmoen, Juan Cuesta, Catherine Wespes, Folkert Boersma, Isolde Glissenaar, Isabelle De Smedt, Michel Van Roozendael, Hervé Petetin, and Isidora Anglou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8229–8254, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8229-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8229-2025, 2025
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Satellites and model simulations show enhancement in tropospheric ozone, which is highly impacted by human-produced nitrous oxides compared to volatile organic compounds. The increased amount of ozone enhances ozone radiative forcing. The ozone enhancement and associated radiative forcing are the highest over South and East Asia. The emissions of nitrous oxides show a higher influence on shifting ozone photochemical regimes than volatile organic compounds.
Xiao Lu, Yiming Liu, Jiayin Su, Xiang Weng, Tabish Ansari, Yuqiang Zhang, Guowen He, Yuqi Zhu, Haolin Wang, Ganquan Zeng, Jingyu Li, Cheng He, Shuai Li, Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen, Tim Butler, Qi Fan, Shaojia Fan, Grant L. Forster, Meng Gao, Jianlin Hu, Yugo Kanaya, Mohd Talib Latif, Keding Lu, Philippe Nédélec, Peer Nowack, Bastien Sauvage, Xiaobin Xu, Lin Zhang, Ke Li, Ja-Ho Koo, and Tatsuya Nagashima
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7991–8028, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7991-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7991-2025, 2025
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This study analyzes summertime ozone trends in East and Southeast Asia derived from a comprehensive observational database spanning from 1995 to 2019, incorporating aircraft observations, ozonesonde data, and measurements from 2500 surface sites. Multiple models are applied to attribute to changes in anthropogenic emissions and climate. The results highlight that increases in anthropogenic emissions are the primary driver of ozone increases both in the free troposphere and at the surface.
Nana Wei, Eloise A. Marais, Gongda Lu, Robert G. Ryan, and Bastien Sauvage
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7925–7940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7925-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7925-2025, 2025
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This study uses reactive nitrogen observations from NASA DC-8 research aircraft and the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) campaigns to characterize reactive nitrogen seasonality and composition in the global upper troposphere and to diagnose the greatest knowledge gaps from comparison to a state-of-the-science model, GEOS-Chem, that need to be resolved for climate, nitrogen cycle, and air pollution assessments.
Alexander K. Tardito Chaudhri and David S. Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7369–7385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7369-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7369-2025, 2025
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There remains a large uncertainty in the global warming potential of atmospheric hydrogen due to poor constraints on its soil deposition and, therefore, its lifetime. A new analysis of the latitudinal variation in the observed seasonality of hydrogen is used to constrain its surface fluxes. This is complemented with a simple latitude–height model where surface fluxes are adjusted from a prototype deposition scheme.
María Cazorla, Melissa Trujillo, Rodrigo Seguel, and Laura Gallardo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7087–7109, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7087-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7087-2025, 2025
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The current climate and environmental crises impose the need to take actions in cities to curb ozone as a pollutant and a climate forcer. This endeavor is challenging in understudied regions. In this work we analyze how reducing levels of precursor chemicals would affect ozone formation in Quito, Ecuador, and Santiago, Chile.
Ji Xia, Yi Zhou, Li Fang, Yingfei Qi, Dehao Li, Hong Liao, and Jianbing Jin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7071–7086, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7071-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7071-2025, 2025
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This study established an ammonia emission inventory for South Asia via an assimilation-based inversion system. The posterior emissions, calculated by integrating the anthropogenic inventory and satellite observations, showed significant improvement over the prior. Validation against various measurements supports our results. The study offers a deep understanding of ammonia emissions for policymakers and researchers aiming to develop air quality management and mitigation strategies for South Asia.
Yuwen Peng, Bin Yuan, Sihang Wang, Xin Song, Zhe Peng, Wenjie Wang, Suxia Yang, Jipeng Qi, Xianjun He, Yibo Huangfu, Xiao-Bing Li, and Min Shao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7037–7052, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7037-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7037-2025, 2025
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A structural-based parameterization for the photolysis rates of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) was integrated into an updated chemical mechanism. This method links photolysis rates to species' structure, bypassing limitations of insufficient quantum yield data. Box model results show that non-HCHO OVOCs, particularly multifunctional carbonyl compounds, significantly contribute to radical production, with alkene and aromatic oxidation products playing key roles.
Catalina Poraicu, Jean-François Müller, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Crist Amelynck, Bert W. D. Verreyken, Niels Schoon, Corinne Vigouroux, Nicolas Kumps, Jérôme Brioude, Pierre Tulet, and Camille Mouchel-Vallon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6903–6941, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6903-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6903-2025, 2025
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We investigated the sources and impacts of nitrogen oxides and organic compounds over a remote tropical island. Simulations of the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) were evaluated using in situ Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and satellite measurements. This work highlights gaps in current models, like missing sources of key organic compounds and inaccuracies in emission inventories, emphasizing the importance of improving chemical and dynamical processes in atmospheric modelling for budget estimates in tropical regions.
Yosuke Niwa, Yasunori Tohjima, Yukio Terao, Tazu Saeki, Akihiko Ito, Taku Umezawa, Kyohei Yamada, Motoki Sasakawa, Toshinobu Machida, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Hideki Nara, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Hitoshi Mukai, Yukio Yoshida, Shinji Morimoto, Shinya Takatsuji, Kazuhiro Tsuboi, Yousuke Sawa, Hidekazu Matsueda, Kentaro Ishijima, Ryo Fujita, Daisuke Goto, Xin Lan, Kenneth Schuldt, Michal Heliasz, Tobias Biermann, Lukasz Chmura, Jarsolaw Necki, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Damiano Sferlazzo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6757–6785, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6757-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6757-2025, 2025
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This study estimated regional and sectoral emission contributions to the unprecedented surge of atmospheric methane for 2020–2022. The methane is the second most important greenhouse gas, and its emissions reduction is urgently required to mitigate global warming. Numerical modeling-based estimates with three different sets of atmospheric observations consistently suggested large contributions of biogenic emissions from South Asia and Southeast Asia to the surge of atmospheric methane.
Sanhita Ghosh, Arineh Cholakian, Sylvain Mailler, and Laurent Menut
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6273–6297, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6273-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6273-2025, 2025
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In this study, we evaluate the present state of modelling lightning flashes over the Northern Hemisphere, using the classical CTH (cloud-top height) scheme and the ICEFLUX scheme with the CHIMERE model. Our study provides a comprehensive 3D comparison of model outputs to assess the robustness and applicability of these schemes. An improvement in O3 distribution in the tropical free troposphere is observed due to inclusion of LNOx (nitrogen oxide emissions from lightning) in the model. Inclusion of LNOx also reduces the lifetime of trace gas CH4.
Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Grégoire Broquet, Elise Potier, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Adrien Martinez, Robin Plauchu, Rimal Abeed, Aurélien Sicsik-Paré, Gaelle Dufour, Adriana Coman, Dilek Savas, Guillaume Siour, Henk Eskes, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, and Stijn N. C. Dellaert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6047–6068, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6047-2025, 2025
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This study assesses the potential of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite observations to inform about the decrease in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in 2019 compared with 2005 at regional to national scales in Europe. Both the OMI and TROPOMI inversions show decreases in European NOx anthropogenic emission budgets in 2019 compared to 2005 but with different magnitudes.
Yawen Kong, Bo Zheng, and Yuxi Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5959–5976, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5959-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5959-2025, 2025
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Current high-resolution satellite remote sensing technologies provide a unique opportunity to derive timely high-resolution emission data. We developed an emission inversion system to assimilate satellite NO2 data to obtain daily kilometer-scale NOx emission inventories. Our results enhance inventory accuracy, allowing us to capture the effects of pollution control policies on daily emissions (e.g., during COVID-19 lockdowns) and improve fine-scale air quality modeling.
Yann Cohen, Didier Hauglustaine, Nicolas Bellouin, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Sigrun Matthes, Agnieszka Skowron, Robin Thor, Ulrich Bundke, Andreas Petzold, Susanne Rohs, Valérie Thouret, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5793–5836, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025, 2025
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The chemical composition of the atmosphere near the tropopause is a key parameter for evaluating the climate impact of subsonic aviation pollutants. This study uses in situ data collected aboard passenger aircraft to assess the ability of four chemistry–climate models to reproduce (bi-)decadal climatologies of ozone, carbon monoxide, water vapour, and reactive nitrogen in this region. The models reproduce the very distinct ozone seasonality in the upper troposphere and in the lower stratosphere well.
Yafang Guo, Mohammad Amin Mirrezaei, Armin Sorooshian, and Avelino F. Arellano
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5591–5616, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5591-2025, 2025
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We assess the contributions of fire and anthropogenic emissions to O3 levels in Phoenix, Arizona, during a period of intense heat and drought conditions. We find that fire exacerbates O3 pollution and that interactions between weather, climate, and air chemistry are important to consider. This has implications for activities related to formulating emission reduction strategies in areas that are currently understudied yet becoming relevant due to reports of increasing global aridity.
Yujia Wang, Hongbin Wang, Bo Zhang, Peng Liu, Xinfeng Wang, Shuchun Si, Likun Xue, Qingzhu Zhang, and Qiao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5537–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5537-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5537-2025, 2025
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This study established a bottom-up approach that employs real-time traffic flows and interpolation to obtain a spatially continuous on-road vehicle emission mapping for the main urban area of Jinan. The diurnal variation, spatial distribution, and emission hotspots were analyzed with clustering and hotspot analysis, showing unique fine-scale variation characteristics of on-road vehicle emissions. Future scenario analysis demonstrates remarkable benefits of electrification on emission reduction.
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Heidi Huntrieser, Patrick Jöckel, and Eric J. Bucsela
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5557–5575, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5557-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5557-2025, 2025
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Lightning plays a significant role in tropospheric chemistry by producing substantial amounts of nitrogen oxides. According to recent estimates, thunderstorms that produce a higher lightning frequency rate also produce less nitrogen oxide per flash. We implemented the dependency of nitrogen oxide production per flash on lightning flash frequency in a chemical atmospheric model.
Aditya Nalam, Aura Lupaşcu, Tabish Ansari, and Tim Butler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5287–5311, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5287-2025, 2025
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Tropospheric O3 molecules are labeled with the identity of their precursor source to simulate contributions from various emission sources to the global tropospheric O3 burden (TOB) and its trends. With an equatorward shift, anthropogenic NOx emissions become significantly more efficient at producing O3 and play a major role in driving TOB trends, mainly due to larger convection at the tropics effectively lifting O3 and its precursors to the free troposphere, where O3 lifetime is longer.
Haofan Wang, Yuejin Li, Yiming Liu, Xiao Lu, Yang Zhang, Qi Fan, Chong Shen, Senchao Lai, Yan Zhou, Tao Zhang, and Dingli Yue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5233–5250, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5233-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5233-2025, 2025
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This study explores how urban green spaces (UGSs) in Guangzhou influence ozone levels. By using advanced models, we found that natural emissions from these areas can significantly affect air quality. Our results suggest that the design and planning of UGSs should not only consider aesthetics and social factors but also their environmental impacts on air quality.
Laura Stecher, Franziska Winterstein, Patrick Jöckel, Michael Ponater, Mariano Mertens, and Martin Dameris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5133–5158, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5133-2025, 2025
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Methane, the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, is chemically decomposed in the atmosphere. The chemical sink of atmospheric methane is not constant but depends on the temperature and on the abundance of its reaction partners. In this study, we use a global chemistry–climate model to assess the feedback of atmospheric methane induced by changes in the chemical sink in a warming climate and its implications for the chemical composition and the surface air temperature change.
Kai-Lan Chang, Brian C. McDonald, Colin Harkins, and Owen R. Cooper
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5101–5132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5101-2025, 2025
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Exposure to high levels of ozone can be harmful to human health. This study shows consistent and robust evidence of decreasing ozone extremes across much of the United States over the period from 1990 to 2023, previously attributed to ozone precursor emission controls. Nevertheless, we also show that the increasing heat wave frequencies are likely to contribute to additional ozone exceedances, slowing the progress of decreasing the frequency of ozone exceedances.
Xiaochun Zhu, Le Cao, Xin Yang, Simeng Li, Jiandong Wang, and Tianliang Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3873, 2025
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We applied various criteria to identify springtime ODEs at Utqiagvik, Arctic, and investigated the influences of using different criteria on conclusions regarding the characteristics of ODEs. We found criteria using a constant threshold and using thresholds based on the monthly averaged ozone more suitable for identifying ODEs than the others. Applying a threshold varying with the monthly average or stricter thresholds also signifies a more significant reduction in the ODE occurrences.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Marit Sandstad, Srinath Krishnan, Gunnar Myhre, and Maria Sand
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4929–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4929-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4929-2025, 2025
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Hydrogen leakages can alter the amount of climate gases in the atmosphere and hence have a climate impact. In this study we investigate, using an atmospheric chemistry model, how this indirect climate effect differs with different amounts of leakages and with where the hydrogen leaks and if this effect changes in the future. The effect is largest for emissions far from areas where hydrogen is removed from the atmosphere by the soil, but these are not relevant locations for a future hydrogen economy.
Alok K. Pandey, David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Richard J. Pope, Ryan Hossaini, Krishan Kumar, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4785–4802, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4785-2025, 2025
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Nitrogen dioxide is an air pollutant largely controlled by human activity that affects ozone, methane, and aerosols. Satellite instruments can quantify column NO2 and, by carefully matching the time and location of measurements, enable evaluation of model simulations. NO2 over south and east Asia is assessed, showing that the model captures not only many features of the measurements, but also important differences that suggest model deficiencies in representing several aspects of the atmospheric chemistry of NO2.
Ruochong Xu, Hanchen Ma, Jingxian Li, Dan Tong, Liu Yan, Lanyuan Wang, Xinying Qin, Qingyang Xiao, Xizhe Yan, Hanwen Hu, Yujia Fu, Nana Wu, Huaxuan Wang, Yuexuanzi Wang, Xiaodong Liu, Guannan Geng, Kebin He, and Qiang Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1085, 2025
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In this study, we developed a new global emission inventory for non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) for the period of 1970–2020, with a focus on improving the representation of NMVOC-emission-related technologies. Our analysis revealed that activity growth, technology advancements, and policy-driven emission controls were key driving forces of NMVOC emission changes, but their roles were different across sectors and regions.
Liang Feng, Paul Palmer, Luke Smallman, Jingfeng Xiao, Paulo Cristofanelli, Ove Hermansen, John Lee, Casper Labuschagne, Simonetta Montaguti, Steffen Noe, Stephen Platt, Xinrong Ren, Martin Steinbacher, and Irene Xueref-Remy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1793, 2025
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2023 saw an unexpectedly high global atmospheric CO2 growth. Satellite data reveal a role for increased emissions over the tropics. Larger emissions over eastern Brazil can be explained by warmer temperatures, while changes in rainfall and soil moisture play more of a role in emission increases elsewhere in the tropics.
Ryan Vella, Sergey Gromov, Clara M. Nussbaumer, Laura Stecher, Matthias Kohl, Samuel Ruhl, Holger Tost, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1800, 2025
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We evaluated how replacing forests with farmland and grazing areas affects atmospheric composition. Using a global climate-chemistry model, we found that deforestation reduces BVOCs, increases farming pollutants, and shifts ozone chemistry. These changes lead to a small cooling effect on the climate. Restoring natural vegetation could reverse some of these effects.
Mingzhao Liu, Lars Hoffmann, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Zhongyin Cai, Sabine Grießbach, and Yi Heng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4403–4418, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4403-2025, 2025
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We studied the transport and chemical decomposition of volcanic SO2, focusing on the 2019 Raikoke event. By comparing two different chemistry modeling schemes, we found that including complex chemical reactions leads to a more accurate prediction of how long SO2 stays in the atmosphere. This research helps improve our understanding of volcanic pollution and its impact on air quality and climate, providing better tools for scientists to track and predict the movement of these pollutants.
Yufen Wang, Ke Li, Xi Chen, Zhenjiang Yang, Minglong Tang, Pascoal M. D. Campos, Yang Yang, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4455–4475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4455-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4455-2025, 2025
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The impacts of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions on high tropospheric ozone levels are not well studied in southern Africa. We combined model simulations with recent observations at the surface and from space to quantify tropospheric ozone and its drivers in southern Africa. Our work focuses on the impact of emissions from different sources at different spatial scales, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of air pollution drivers and their uncertainties in southern Africa.
Dominika Pasik, Thomas Golin Almeida, Emelda Ahongshangbam, Siddharth Iyer, and Nanna Myllys
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4313–4331, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4313-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4313-2025, 2025
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We used quantum chemistry methods to investigate the oxidation mechanisms of acyl peroxy radicals (APRs) with various monoterpenes. Our findings reveal unique oxidation pathways for different monoterpenes, leading to either chain-terminating products or highly reactive intermediates that can contribute to particle formation in the atmosphere. This research highlights APRs as potentially significant but underexplored atmospheric oxidants that may influence future approaches to modelling climate.
Jincheol Park, Yunsoo Choi, and Sagun Kayastha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4291–4311, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4291-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4291-2025, 2025
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We investigated NOx emission contributions to NOy loadings across five regions of East Asia during the 2022 winter–spring transition through chemical transport modeling informed by satellite data. As seasons progress, local contributions within each region to its NOy budget decreased from 32 %–43 % to 23 %–30 %, while transboundary contributions increased from 16 %–33 % to 27 %–37 %, driven by a shift in synoptic settings that allowed pollutants to spread more broadly across the regions.
Qianqian Zhang, K. Folkert Boersma, Chiel van der Laan, Alba Mols, Bin Zhao, Shengyue Li, and Yuepeng Pan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3313–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3313-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3313-2025, 2025
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Accurate NOx emission estimates are required to better understand air pollution. This study investigates and demonstrates the ability of the superposition column model in combination with TROPOMI tropospheric NO2 column data to estimate city-scale NOx emissions and lifetimes and their variabilities. The results of this work nevertheless confirm the strength of the superposition column model in estimating urban NOx emissions with reasonable accuracy.
Biao Luo, Lei Liu, David H. Y. Yung, Tiangang Yuan, Jingwei Zhang, Leo T. H. Ng, and Amos P. K. Tai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-72, 2025
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Through a combination of emission models and air quality model, we aimed to address the pressing issue of poor nitrogen management while promoting sustainable food systems and public health in China. We discovered that improving nitrogen management of crop and livestock can substantially reduce air pollutant emissions, particularly in North China Plain. Our findings further provide the benefits of such interventions on PM2.5 reductions, offering valuable insights for policymakers.
Wenbin Kou, Yang Gao, Dan Tong, Xiaojie Guo, Xiadong An, Wenyu Liu, Mengshi Cui, Xiuwen Guo, Shaoqing Zhang, Huiwang Gao, and Lixin Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3029–3048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3029-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3029-2025, 2025
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Unlike traditional numerical studies, we apply a high-resolution Earth system model, improving simulations of surface ozone and large-scale circulations such as atmospheric blocking. Besides local heat waves, we quantify the impact of atmospheric blocking on downstream ozone concentrations, which is closely associated with the blocking position. We identify three major pathways of Rossby wave propagation, stressing the critical role of large-scale circulation in regional air quality.
Jingyu Li, Haolin Wang, Qi Fan, and Xiao Lu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-782, 2025
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We use multiple global chemical models to quantify processes contributing the ozone response to ENSO. We find that changes in transport patterns are the dominant factor in the overall ozone-ENSO responses, with the opposing effects of chemical depletion and increased biomass burning on ozone largely offsetting each other. Models consistently project an increase in tropical ozone-ENSO response associated with strengthening anomalous circulation and more abundant water vapor with global warming.
Beata Opacka, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Jean-François Müller, Isabelle De Smedt, Jos van Geffen, Eloise A. Marais, Rebekah P. Horner, Dylan B. Millet, Kelly C. Wells, and Alex B. Guenther
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2863–2894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2863-2025, 2025
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Vegetation releases biogenic volatile organic compounds, while soils and lightning contribute to the natural emissions of nitrogen oxides into the atmosphere. These gases interact in complex ways. Using satellite data and models, we developed a new method to simultaneously optimize these natural emissions over Africa in 2019. Our approach resulted in an increase in natural emissions, supported by independent data indicating that current estimates are underestimated.
Xi Chen, Ke Li, Ting Yang, Xipeng Jin, Lei Chen, Yang Yang, Shuman Zhao, Bo Hu, Bin Zhu, Zifa Wang, and Hong Liao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-430, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-430, 2025
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Aerosol vertical distribution that plays a crucial role in aerosol-photolysis interaction (API) remains underrepresented in chemical models. We integrated lidar and radiosonde observations to constrain the simulated aerosol profiles over North China and quantified the photochemical responses. The increased photolysis rates in the lower layers led to increased ozone and accounted for a 36 %–56 % reduction in API effects, resulting in enhanced atmospheric oxidizing capacity and aerosol formation.
Shuai Li, Haolin Wang, and Xiao Lu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2725–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2725-2025, 2025
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Summertime ozone–temperature sensitivity has decreased by 50 % from 3.0 ppbv per K in 1990 to 1.5 ppb per K in 2021 in the US. GEOS-Chem simulations show that anthropogenic nitrogen oxide emission reduction is the dominant driver of ozone–temperature sensitivity decline by influencing both temperature direct and temperature indirect processes. Reduced ozone–temperature sensitivity has decreased ozone enhancement from low to high temperatures by an average of 6.8 ppbv across the US.
Mingjie Kang, Hongliang Zhang, and Qi Ying
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-255, 2025
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This study examines the impacts of reducing nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds on ozone (O3), secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA), and OH and NO3 radicals. The results show similar predictions for 8-h O3 but significant variability for SIA and radicals, with differences up to 30 % for SIA and 200 % for radicals across chemical mechanisms and inventories. The findings highlight that evaluating control strategies for SIA and atmospheric oxidation capacity requires an ensemble approach.
Jinya Yang, Yutong Wang, Lei Zhang, and Yu Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2649–2666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2649-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2649-2025, 2025
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We develop a modeling framework to predict future ozone concentrations (till the 2060s) in China following an IPCC scenario. We evaluate the contributions of climatic, anthropogenic, and biogenic factors by season and region. We find persistent emission controls will alter the nonlinear response of ozone to its precursors and dominate the declining ozone level. The outcomes highlight the importance of human actions, even with a climate penalty on air quality.
Xiaodong Zhang, Yu Yan, Ning Zhang, Wenpeng Wang, Huabing Suo, Xiaohu Jian, Chao Wang, Haibo Ma, Hong Gao, Zhaoli Yang, Tao Huang, and Jianmin Ma
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-258, 2025
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This study performed comprehensive sensitivity model simulations to explore the surface O3 responses to historical and projected climate change in Northwestern China (NW). Our results reveal that substantial wetting trends since the 21st century have mitigated O3 growth in this region, with the influence of wetting on O3 evolution outweighing the warming effect. These findings should be taken into account in future policymaking aimed at scientifically reducing O3 pollution in NW.
Catherine Acquah, Laura Stecher, Mariano Mertens, and Patrick Jöckel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-294, 2025
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Short-lived ozone precursor species influence the formation of ozone and also the atmospheric lifetime of methane. Our study assesses the effect of two widely used emission inventories of these species on ozone and the methane lifetime. Our results indicate tropospheric ozone and methane lifetime differences of around 4 % even though both emission inventories aim at representing present-day conditions. We further attribute the differences to emissions of individual sectors, e.g. land traffic.
Takashi Sekiya, Emanuele Emili, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Antje Inness, Zhen Qu, R. Bradley Pierce, Dylan Jones, Helen Worden, William Y. Y. Cheng, Vincent Huijnen, and Gerbrand Koren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2243–2268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2243-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2243-2025, 2025
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Five global chemical reanalysis datasets were used to assess the relative impacts of assimilating satellite ozone and its precursor measurements on tropospheric ozone analyses for 2010. The multiple reanalysis system comparison allows an evaluation of the dependency of the impacts on different reanalysis systems. The results suggested the importance of satellite ozone and its precursor measurements for improving ozone analysis in the whole troposphere, with varying magnitudes among the systems.
Maureen Beaudor, Didier Hauglustaine, Juliette Lathière, Martin Van Damme, Lieven Clarisse, and Nicolas Vuichard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2017–2046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2017-2025, 2025
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Agriculture is the biggest ammonia (NH3) source, impacting air quality, climate, and ecosystems. Because of food demand, NH3 emissions are projected to rise by 2100. Using a global model, we analyzed the impact of present and future NH3 emissions generated from a land model. Our results show improved ammonia patterns compared to a reference inventory. Future scenarios predict up to 70 % increase in global NH3 burden, with significant changes in radiative forcing that can greatly elevate N2O.
Pramod Kumar, Grégoire Broquet, Didier Hauglustaine, Maureen Beaudor, Lieven Clarisse, Martin Van Damme, Pierre Coheur, Anne Cozic, Bo Zheng, Beatriz Revilla Romero, Antony Delavois, and Philippe Ciais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-162, 2025
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Global maps of the NH3 emissions over 2019–2022 are derived using IASI NH3 spaceborne observations, the LMDZ-INCA chemistry-transport model at 1.27°×2.5° resolution and mass balance approach. The average global NH3 emissions over the period are ~98 Tg NH3 yr-1, which is significantly higher than three reference inventories. The analysis provides confidence in the seasonal variability and regional budgets, and provides new insights into NH3 emissions at global and regional scales.
Hui Li, Jiaxin Qiu, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1949–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1949-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1949-2025, 2025
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We conduct a sensitivity analysis with 31 tests on various factors including prior emissions, model resolution, satellite constraint, and other system configurations to assess the vulnerability of emission estimates across temporal, sectoral, and regional dimensions. This reveals the robustness of emissions estimated by this air-pollution-satellite-based CO2 emission inversion system, with relative change between tests and base inversion below 4.0 % for national annual NOx and CO2 emissions.
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