Review of “Constraining a Radiative Transfer Model with Satellite Retrievals: Implications for Cirrus Cloud Thinning”
The authors have addressed many of the comments from the reviewer’s first round of comments. The reviewer applauds the efforts of the authors for adding impacts of new cirrus formed from clear-sky ice supersaturation, as well as adding clarifications on the regions of interests (instead of the entire global analysis). In addition, the revised section 5 also provides a better structure with implications for global climate models, compared with the original section before.
The reviewer still has a major concern regarding the first bullet point, which is that the currently existing heterogeneous cirrus clouds likely will not share the same microphysical properties as the type of heterogeneous cirrus to be formed from cirrus seeding. The reviewer realized that the authors probably didn’t get the meaning of my original comments and therefore explains this point in more detail below. Because cirrus thinning is an important focus of this paper and if not treated carefully can be misunderstood by the readers, the reviewer urges the authors to take more action upon the following comment.
Let’s say in the current world we have two sets of environmental conditions, Type A that supports the formation of homogeneous cirrus, and Type B that supports the formation of heterogeneous cirrus. Type A usually leads to higher RHice such as 150% - 180% of RHice and has fewer INPs; while Type B usually leads to about 110% - 130% of RHice and has more INPs.
Type A (a combination of synoptic scale to microscale conditions, a combination of T, RHice, dynamics, aerosols, etc.) -> homogeneous cirrus (cirrus Hom-A)
Type B (a combination of synoptic scale to microscale conditions, a combination of T, RHice, dynamics, aerosols, etc.) -> heterogeneous cirrus (cirrus Het-B)
Just as the authors also mentioned, homogeneous cirrus tends to form at different regions, synoptic conditions, or seasons, compared with heterogeneous cirrus. This means that it is not only the amount of INPs that are different between Type A and Type B, but many other physical factors are different too.
Now we are going to add more INPs to Type A -> seeded heterogeneous cirrus with more INPs (cirrus Het-A), which forms in conditions that previously supported homogeneous cirrus formation. It is very unlikely that these modified cirrus Het-A have the same microphysical properties as the cirrus Het-B, because they experience very different environmental conditions. In fact, Figures 3 and 6 in the revised manuscript also show that the mean IWC of Hom-A is always higher at every vertical level compared with the mean IWC of Het-B in both Arctic and Antarctic, over land and ocean. This again supports the reviewer’s argument that Type A and Type B are two sets of conditions. Higher IWC is very likely caused by the higher amount of ice supersaturation produced by the Type A condition (it can be many reasons, orographic, uplifting, etc.) that supports RHice to rise to higher values and therefore providing higher amount of excess water vapor over ice saturation to form ice crystals.
If this manuscript only focuses on the comparisons of cirrus radiative forcing between homogeneous and heterogeneous cirrus (as seen in the real world by the satellite data), then there will be no problem just comparing Hom-A and Het-B, because that is what the real cirrus clouds are like. But right now, the layout of the manuscript focuses quite a lot on cirrus thinning. The way that the introduction is written revolves around this key topic. So when the readers saw the comparison between Hom-A and Het-B cirrus, they would think that is what we will get if we seed the Hom-A cirrus with more INPs. But that is not the case, because the cirrus Het-A formed from the Type A condition will likely be something in between Hom-A and Het-B, because it is subject to similar environmental conditions as Hom-A but has added more INPs.
In another way of putting it, this is like we have two types of fruit trees, one has more fruit, and the one has less fruit, but they grow in different environments. There is no guarantee that if one plants the tree with more fruit into a different environment, that tree will still produce more fruit (probably not the best analogy since the plant’s DNA plays an important role in this case).
The reviewer also understands that the authors mentioned that the next step would be to run a model, either cloud model or climate model, to assess the impacts of seeding cirrus, and therefore one can control all the environmental conditions to be the same and only test the difference of adding more INPs. The reviewer understands that the modeling work is not the method used in this work. But the way that currently this work lays out as if the comparison of Hom-A and Het-B is the way to estimate cirrus thinning can be very misleading and may lead to more observational work to follow this line of logic. Since the geoengineering topic already involves a level of high uncertainty, the reviewer wants to be extra careful of how the method is being used to assess the impact of these techniques.
The reviewer tried to think about what a better way would be to present this result. The reviewer can see the value of showing the difference between Hom-A and Het-B, since the Het-A will likely be something in between Hom-A and Het-B. Right now, the danger is that this Het-B is presented as the one and only scenario as if it is going to be exactly what we will get for Het-A, which is not true. So, the reviewer thought of a remediation plan, which is to present another scenario, as another bound of this estimate. That new scenario would be to assume that Het-A has the same IWC as Hom-A (which would likely be the maximum IWC bound of this Het-A) but also assume Het-A has the same De as Het-B for each vertical level at specific regions (allowing them to be large ice crystals like heterogeneous cirrus). This new estimate combined with the Het-B will likely provide the two ends of estimates for Het-A, because this new scenario’s estimate uses the maximum IWC possible for Het-A (large ice crystals should fall faster and the IWC should be reduced from the original IWC of Hom-A), but also the Het-B as presented currently in the manuscript has the lower end of IWC estimate because Type B supports less ice supersaturation.
Basically, if the manuscript presents two possible scenarios, it will not be misunderstood as if the Het-B is the only likely scenario that Het-A will look like. And this way the manuscript provides a range of estimates, instead of just providing a single value estimate that is skewed towards underestimation of IWC because it is based on IWC from Type-B.
The reviewer also thought of a more accurate estimate, which would be to compare pairs of homogeneous and heterogeneous cirrus that share very similar physical conditions (such as thermodynamic, dynamic conditions, seasons, regions, etc.) but only have different INPs. As the authors pointed out, the example of the volcanic eruption is a very unique experiment, because it happens around similar time and location, and with significantly different INPs. Thus, one can almost control all other factors to be the same and only evaluate the impacts of adding INPs. In this study, satellite observations include a large suite of conditions that contribute to Type A and Type B. The reviewer would also be open to methods proposed by the authors if they can isolate the control group from the experiment group with everything kept the same except for INPs, to quantify impacts of INPs. But that may be a more different path to take. |
Please find my comments in form of the uploaded supplement.