Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5169-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5169-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Apr 2026
Research article |
| 17 Apr 2026
| 17 Apr 2026
Distinct drivers of recent seasonal precipitation increase over Central Asia: roles of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases
Jianing Guo
State Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
State Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China
Gunnar Myhre
CICERO – Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Drew Shindell
Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
Alf Kirkevåg
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Trond Iversen
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Apostolos Voulgarakis
Department of Physics, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, UK
School of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Crete, Greece
Toshihiko Takemura
Climate Change Science Section, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
Ke Shang
School of Civil Aviation, Xihang University, Xi'an, China
Xinzhou Li
State Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China
Zhengguo Shi
State Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China
Yangang Liu
Environmental and Climate Sciences Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, USA
Xiaodong Liu
State Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Hong Yan
State Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China
Data sets
Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project data sets 2013–2021 T. Andrews et al. https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/PDRMIP_2012-2021
Short summary
Central Asia has grown wetter in recent decades, but the drivers differ by season. We analyzed observations and climate model experiments to understand these changes and their future. Our analysis reveals that greenhouse gases from human activities drive winter wetting, whereas aerosol from Asia urbanization and industrialization enhances summer precipitation. As future reductions in air pollution, the region may experience drier summers and create new risks for regional water resources.
Central Asia has grown wetter in recent decades, but the drivers differ by season. We analyzed...
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