Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3881-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3881-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Assessment and prediction of dust emissions, deposition and radiation forcing in Central Asia
Ying Gan
College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China
Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China
Key Laboratory of Smart City and Environment Modelling of Higher Education Institute, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China
Zhe Zhang
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China
Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China
Key Laboratory of Smart City and Environment Modelling of Higher Education Institute, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China
MNR Technology Innovation Center for Central Asia Geo-Information Exploitation and Utilization, Urumqi, 830046, China
Wen Chu
College of Marine Technology, Faculty of Information Science and Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
Jianli Ding
Xinjiang Institute of Technology, Aksu, 843100, China
Yuxin Ren
College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China
Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China
Key Laboratory of Smart City and Environment Modelling of Higher Education Institute, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China
Related authors
No articles found.
Xiangyue Chen, Hongchao Zuo, Zipeng Zhang, Xiaoyi Cao, Jikai Duan, Chuanmei Zhu, Zhe Zhang, and Jingzhe Wang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5233–5252, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Arid and semi-arid areas are data-scarce aerosol areas. We provide path-breaking, high-resolution, full coverage, and long time series AOD datasets (FEC AOD) to support the atmosphere and related studies in northwestern China. The FEC AOD effectively compensates for the deficiency and constraints of in situ observations and satellite AOD products. Meanwhile, FEC AOD products demonstrate a reliable accuracy and ability to capture long-term change information.
Cited articles
Bauer, S. E. and Koch, D.: Impact of heterogeneous sulfate formation at mineral dust surfaces on aerosol loads and radiative forcing in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D17202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005870, 2005.
Bauer, S. E., Tsigaridis, K., Faluvegi, G., Kelley, M., Lo, K. K., Miller, R. L., Nazarenko, L., Schmidt, G. A., and Wu, J.: Historical (1850–2014) aerosol evolution and role on climate forcing using the GISS ModelE2.1 contribution to CMIP6, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001978, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001978, 2020.
Braconnot, P., Albani, S., Balkanski, Y., Cozic, A., Kageyama, M., Sima, A., Marti, O., and Peterschmitt, J.-Y.: Impact of dust in PMIP-CMIP6 mid-Holocene simulations with the IPSL model, Clim. Past, 17, 1091–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1091-2021, 2021.
Brown, H., Liu, X., Pokhrel, R., Murphy, S., Lu, Z., Saleh, R., Mielonen, T., Kokkola, H., Bergman, T., and Myhre, G.: Biomass burning aerosols in most climate models are too absorbing, Nat. Commun., 12, 277, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20482-9, 2021.
Buchard, V., Randles, C. A., da Silva, A. M., Darmenov, A., Colarco, P. R., Govindaraju, R., Ferrare, R., Hair, J., Beyersdorf, A. J., and Ziemba, L. D.: The MERRA-2 aerosol reanalysis, 1980 onward. Part II: Evaluation and case studies, J. Climate, 30, 6851–6872, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0613.1, 2017.
Cakmur, R. V., Miller, R. L., Perlwitz, J., Geogdzhayev, I. V., Ginoux, P., Koch, D., Kohfeld, K. E., Tegen, I., and Zender, C. S.: Constraining the magnitude of the global dust cycle by minimizing the difference between a model and observations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D06207, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005791, 2006.
Chen, A., Zhao, C., and Fan, T.: Spatio-temporal distribution of aerosol direct radiative forcing over mid-latitude regions in north hemisphere estimated from satellite observations, Atmos. Res., 266, 105938, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105938, 2022.
Dai, Y., Hitchcock, P., Mahowald, N. M., Domeisen, D. I. V., Hamilton, D. S., Li, L., Marticorena, B., Kanakidou, M., Mihalopoulos, N., and Aboagye-Okyere, A.: Stratospheric impacts on dust transport and air pollution in West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean, Nat. Commun., 13, 7744, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35403-1, 2022.
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier, A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Holland, M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P., Lawrence, D., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W., Mills, M., Neale, R., Oleson, K., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A., Sacks,W., Tilmes, S., van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C., Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J., Kinnison, D., Kushner, P., Larson, V., Long, M., Mickelson, S., Moore, J., Nienhouse, E., Polvani, L., Rasch, P., and Strand, G.: The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001916, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020.
Dubovik, O. and King, M. D.: A flexible inversion algorithm for retrieval of aerosol optical properties from Sun and sky radiance measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 105, 20673–20696, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900282, 2000.
Dunne, J. P., Horowitz, L. W., Adcroft, A. J., Ginoux, P., Held, I. M., John, J. G., Krasting, J. P., Malyshev, S., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Shevliakova, E., Stock, C. A., Zadeh, N., Balaji, V., Blanton, C., Dunne, K. A., Dupuis, C., Durachta, J., Dussin, R., Gauthier, P. P. G., Griffies, S. M., Guo, H., Hallberg, R. W., Harrison, M., He, J., Hurlin, W., McHugh, C., Menzel, R., Milly, P. C. D., Nikonov, S., Paynter, D. J., Ploshay, J., Radhakrishnan, A., Rand, K., Reichl, B. G., Robinson, T., Schwarzkopf, D. M., Sentman, L. T., Underwood, S., Vahlenkamp, H., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B., Zeng, Y., and Zhao, M.: The GFDL Earth System Model Version 4.1 (GFDL728 ESM4.1): Overall coupled model description and simulation characteristics, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002015, 2020.
Evans, S., Ginoux, P., Malyshev, S., and Shevliakova, E.: Climate–vegetation interaction and amplification of Australian dust variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 11823–11830, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071016, 2016.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Fu, A., Li, W., Chen, Y., Wang, Y., Hao, H., Li, Y., Sun, F., Zhou, H., Zhu, C., and Hao, X.: The effects of ecological rehabilitation projects on the resilience of an extremely drought-prone desert riparian forest ecosystem in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China, Sci. Rep., 11, 18485, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-96742-5, 2021.
García, O. E., Díaz, J. P., Expósito, F. J., Díaz, A. M., Dubovik, O., Derimian, Y., Dubuisson, P., and Roger, J.-C.: Shortwave radiative forcing and efficiency of key aerosol types using AERONET data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 5129–5145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-5129-2012, 2012.
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, 745 L., Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Reichle, R., Wargan, K., Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A., da Silva, A. M., Gu, W., Kim, G.-K., Koster, R., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D., Nielsen, J. E., Partyka, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Rienecker, M., Schubert, S. D., Sienkiewicz, M., and Zhao, B.: The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), J. Climate, 30, 5419–5454, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1, 2017.
Ginoux, P., Prospero, J. M., Gill, T. E., Hsu, N. C., and Zhao, M.: Global-scale attribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources and their emission rates based on MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products, Rev. Geophys., 50, RG3005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012RG000388, 2012.
Gutmann, E., Pruitt, T., Clark, M. P., Brekke, L., Arnold, J. R., Raff, D. A., and Rasmussen, R. M.: An intercomparison of statistical downscaling methods used for water resource assessments in the United States, Water Resour. Res., 50, 7167–7186, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015559, 2014.
Halthore, R. N., Crisp, D., Schwartz, S. E., Anderson, G. P., Berk, A., Bonnel, B., Boucher, O., 759 Chang, F.-L., Chou, M.-D., Clothiaux, E. E., Dubuisson, P., Fomin, B., Fouquart, Y., Freidenreich, S., Gautier, C., Kato, S., Laszlo, I., Li, Z., Mather, J. H., Plana-Fattori, A., Ramaswamy, V., Ricchiazzi, P., Shiren, Y., Trishchenko, A., and Wiscombe, W.: Intercomparison of shortwave radiative transfer codes and measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D11206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005293, 2005.
Hetzel, R., Niedermann, S., Tao, M., Kubik, P. W., Ivy-Ochs, S., Gao, B., and Strecker, M. R.: Low slip rates and long-term preservation of geomorphic features in Central Asia, Nature, 417, 428–432, https://doi.org/10.1038/417428a, 2002.
Holben, B. N., Eck, T. F., Slutsker, I., Tanré, D., Buis, J. P., Setzer, A., Vermote, E., Reagan, J. A., Kaufman, Y. J., Nakajima, T., Lavenu, F., Jankowiak, I., and Smirnov, A.: AERONET – A federated instrument network and data archive for aerosol characterization, Remote Sens. Environ., 66, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(98)00031-5, 1998.
Holben, B. N., Tanré, D., Smirnov, A., Eck, T. F., Slutsker, I., Abuhassan, N., Newcomb, W. W., Schafer, J. S., Chatenet, B., Lavenu, F., Kaufman, Y. J., Castle, J., Setzer, A., Markham, B., Clark, D., Frouin, R., Halthore, R., Karneli, A., O’Neill, N. T., Pietras, C., Pinker, R. T., Voss, K., and Zibordi, G.: An emerging ground-based aerosol climatology: Aerosol optical depth from AERONET, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 12067–12097, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD900014, 2001.
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2021.
Kok, J. F., Ridley, D. A., Zhou, Q., Miller, R. L., Zhao, C., Heald, C. L., Ward, D. S., Albani, S., and Haustein, K.: Smaller desert dust cooling effect estimated from analysis of dust size and abundance, Nat. Geosci., 10, 274–278, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2912, 2017.
Kok, J. F., Storelvmo, T., Karydis, V. A., Adebiyi, A. A., Mahowald, N. M., Evan, A. T., He, C., and Leung, D. M.: Mineral dust aerosol impacts on global climate and climate change, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 4, 71–86, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00379-5, 2023.
Kumar, M., Parmar, K. S., Kumar, D. B., Mhawish, A., Broday, D. M., Mall, R. K., and Banerjee, T.: Long-term aerosol climatology over Indo-Gangetic plain: trend, prediction and potential source fields, Atmos. Environ., 180, 37–50, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.02.027, 2018.
Kelley, M., Schmidt, G. A., Nazarenko, L., Miller, R. L., Bauer, S. E., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Ackerman, A. S., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Cesana, G., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Cook, B. I., Cruz, C. A., Del Genio, A. D., Elsaesser, G. S., Faluvegi, G., Kiang, N. Y., Kim, D., Lacis, A. A., Leboissetier, A., LeGrande, A. N., Lo, K. K., Marshall, J., Matthews, E. E., McDermid, S., Mezuman, K., Murray, L. T., Oinas, V., Orbe, C., García-Pando, C. P., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Tsigaridis, K., Tselioudis, G., Weng, E., Wu, J., and Yao, M.-S.: GISS-E2.1: Configurations and climatology, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002025, 2020.
Kuhlbrodt, T., Jones, C. G., Sellar,A., Storkey, D., Blockley, E., Stringer, M., Hill, R., Graham, T., Ridley, J., Blaker,A., Calvert, D., Copsey, D., Ellis, R., Hewitt, H., Hyder, P., Ineson, S., Mulcahy, J., Siahaan, A., and Walton, J.: The low-resolution version of HadGEM3 GC3.1: Development and evaluation for global climate, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 2865–2888, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001370, 2018.
Li, J., Carlson, B. E., Yung, Y. L., Lv, D., Hansen, J., Penner, J. E., Liao, H., Ramaswamy, V., Kahn, R. A., Zhang, P., Dubovik, O., Ding, A., Lacis, A. A., Zhang, L., and Dong, Y.: Scattering and absorbing aerosols in the climate system, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 3, 363–379, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00296-7, 2022a.
Li, X., Dong, X., Liu, Y., Wang, M., Jiang, Y., and Dong, Y.: Assessment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) model performance in simulating the spatial-temporal variation of aerosol optical depth over Eastern Central China, Atmos. Res., 261, 105747, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105747, 2021.
Li, Y., Song, Y., Kaskaoutis, D. G., Zhang, X., Chen, X., Shukurov, N., and Orozbaev, R.: Atmospheric dust dynamics over Central Asia: A perspective view from loess deposits, Gondwana Res., 109, 150–165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2022.04.019, 2022b.
Li, Z., Xu, H., Li, K. T., Li, D., Xie, Y., Li, L., Zhang, Y., Gu, X., Zhao,W., Tian, Q., Deng, R., Su, Y., Huang, B., Cui, W., Deng, X., Hu, B., Cui, Y., and Zhang, X.: Comprehensive study of optical, physical, chemical, and radiative properties of total columnar atmospheric aerosols over China: An overview of Sun–Sky Radiometer Observation Network (SONET) measurements, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 739–755, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0133.1, 2018.
Lioubimtseva, E. and Cole, R.: Uncertainties of climate change in arid environments of Central Asia, Rev. Fish. Sci., 14, 29–49, https://doi.org/10.1080/10641260500340603, 2006.
Liu, J., Wang, X., Wu, D., Wei, H., Li, Y., and Ji, M.: Historical footprints and future projections of global dust burden from bias-corrected CMIP6 models, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 7, 1, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00550-9, 2024.
Mahowald, N. M., Kloster, S., Engelstaedter, S., Moore, J. K., Mukhopadhyay, S., McConnell, J. R., Albani, S., Doney, S. C., Bhattacharya, A., Curran, M. A. J., Flanner, M. G., Hoffman, F. M., Lawrence, D. M., Lindsay, K., Mayewski, P. A., Neff, J., Rothenberg, D., Thomas, E., Thornton, P. E., and Zender, C. S.: Observed 20th century desert dust variability: impact on climate and biogeochemistry, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 10875–10893, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-10875-2010, 2010.
Maraun, D., Wetterhall, F., Ireson, A. M., Chandler, R. E., Kendon, E. J., Widmann, M., Brienen, S., Rust, H. W., Sauter, T., Themeßl, M., and Thiele-Eich, I.: Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG3003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000314, 2010.
Marticorena, B. and Bergametti, G.: Modeling the atmospheric dust cycle: 1. Design of a soil-derived dust emission scheme, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 100, 16415–16430, https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD00690, 1995.
Marticorena, B., Bergametti, G., Aumont, B., Callot, Y., N'Doumé, C., and Legrand, M.: Modeling the atmospheric dust cycle: 2. Simulation of Saharan dust sources, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 4387–4404, https://doi.org/10.1029/96JD02964, 1997.
Miller, R. L., Tegen, I., and Perlwitz, J.: Surface radiative forcing by soil dust aerosols and the hydrologic cycle, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D04203, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004085, 2004.
Nakamae, K. and Takemi, T.: Relationship between the development of a convective mixed layer and dust weather in arid and semi-arid regions of East Asia, Int. J. Climatol., 42, 3076–3093, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7373, 2022.
Penner, J. E., Quaas, J., Storelvmo, T., Takemura, T., Boucher, O., Guo, H., Kirkevåg, A., Kristjánsson, J. E., and Seland, Ø.: Model intercomparison of indirect aerosol effects, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3391–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-3391-2006, 2006.
Pozzer, A., de Meij, A., Pringle, K. J., Tost, H., Doering, U. M., van Aardenne, J., and Lelieveld, J.: Distributions and regional budgets of aerosols and their precursors simulated with the EMAC chemistry-climate model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 961–987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-961-2012, 2012.
Rind, D., Orbe, C., Jonas, J., Nazarenko, L., Zhou, T., Kelley, M., Lacis, A., Shindell, D., Faluvegi, G., Russell, G., Bauer, M., Schmidt, G., Romanou, A., and Tausnev, N.: GISS ModelE2.2: A climate model optimized for the middle atmosphere–Model structure, climatology, variability, and climate sensitivity, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD032204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032204, 2020.
Rupakheti, D., Rupakheti, M., Rai, M., Yin, X., Hofer, J., Hu, Y., Abdullaev, S. F., Kang, S., and Lawrence, M. G.: Characterization of columnar aerosol over a background site in Central Asia, Environ. Pollut., 316, 120501, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2022.120501, 2023.
Ramanathan, V., Crutzen, P. J., Kiehl, J. T., and Rosenfeld, D.: Aerosols, climate, and the hydrological cycle, Science, 294, 2119–2124, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1064034, 2001.
Ricchiazzi, P., Yang, S., Gautier, C., and Sowle, D.: SBDART: A research and teaching software tool for plane-parallel radiative transfer in the Earth's atmosphere, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 2101–2114, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2101:SARATS>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Salvador, P., Pey, J., Pérez, N., Querol, X., and Artíñano, B.: Increasing atmospheric dust transport towards the western Mediterranean over 1948–2020, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 5, 34, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00255-9, 2022.
Sami, M., Waseem, A., Jafri, Y. Z., Shah, S. H., Khan, M. A., Akbar, S., Siddiqui, M. A., and Murtaza, G.: Prediction of the rate of dust fall in Quetta city, Pakistan using seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) modeling, Int. J. Phys. Sci., 7, 1713–1725, https://doi.org/10.5897/IJPS11.1357, 2012.
Séférian, R., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Saint-Martin, D., Voldoire, A., Colin, J., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Berthet, S., Chevallier, M., Sénési, S., Franchisteguy, L., Vial, J., Mallet, M., Joetzjer, E., Geoffroy, O., Guérémy, J.-F., Moine, M.-P., Msadek, R., Ribes, A., Rocher, M., Roehrig, R., Salas y-Mélia, D., Sanchez, E., Terray, L., Valcke, S., Waldman, R., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Deshayes, J., Éthé, C., and Madec, G.: Evaluation of the CNRM Earth System Model (CNRM-ESM2-1): Role of Earth system processes in present-day and future climate, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4182–4227, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001791, 2019.
Senior, C. A., Jones, C. G., Wood, R. A., Sellar,A., Belcher, S., Klein-Tank, A., Sutton, R., Walton, J., Lawrence, B., Andrews, T., and Mulcahy, J. P.: U.K. community Earth system modeling for CMIP6, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002004, 2020.
Shao, Y., Wyrwoll, K.-H., Chappell, A., Huang, J., Lin, Z., McTainsh, G. H., Mikami, M., Tanaka, T. Y., Wang, X., and Yoon, S.: Dust cycle: An emerging core theme in Earth system science, Aeolian Res., 2, 181–204, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeolia.2011.02.001, 2011.
She, L., Li, Z., de Leeuw, G., Wang, Y., Wang, L., Yang, Z., Feng, C., Yang, C., and Shi, Y.: Time series retrieval of multi-wavelength aerosol optical depth by adapting Transformer (TMAT) using Himawari-8 AHI data, Remote Sens. Environ., 305, 114115, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2024.114115, 2024.
Shen, H., Abuduwaili, J., Samat, A., and Ma, L.: A review on the research of modern aeolian dust in Central Asia, Arab. J. Geosci., 9, 326, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-016-2646-9, 2016.
Sirisha, U. M., Belavagi, M. C., and Attigeri, G.: Profit prediction using ARIMA, SARIMA and LSTM models in time series forecasting: A comparison, IEEE Access, 10, 124715–124727, 2022.
Song, Q., Zhang, Z., Yu, H., Ginoux, P., and Shen, J.: Global dust optical depth climatology derived from CALIOP and MODIS aerosol retrievals on decadal timescales: regional and interannual variability, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13369–13395, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13369-2021, 2021.
Tanaka, T. Y. and Chiba, M.: A numerical study of the contributions of dust source regions to the global dust budget, Global Planet. Change, 52, 88–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.02.002, 2006.
Tao, M., Chen, L., Wang, J., Wang, L., Wang, W., Lin, C., Gui, L., Wang, C., Yu, C., and Wang, Y.: Characterization of dust activation and their prevailing transport over East Asia based on multi-satellite observations, Atmos. Res., 265, 105886, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105886, 2022.
Tegen, I., Werner, M., Harrison, S. P., and Kohfeld, K. E.: Relative importance of climate and land use in determining present and future global soil dust emission, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L05105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019216, 2004.
Wallace, J. M. and Hobbs, P. V.: Atmospheric science: an introductory survey, 2nd edn., Academic Press, Amsterdam, 483 pp., ISBN 978-0-12-732951-2, 2006.
Wang, X., Liu, J., Che, H., Ji, F., and Liu, J.: Spatial and temporal evolution of natural and anthropogenic dust events over northern China, Sci. Rep., 8, 2141, https://doi.org/10.1038/s4159838-018-20382-5, 2018.
Wang, X., Chen, Y., Li, Z., Fang, G., Wang, F., and Liu, H.: The impact of climate change and human activities on the Aral Sea Basin over the past 50 years, Atmos. Res., 245, 105125, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105125, 2020.
Wu, C., Lin, Z., He, J., Zhang, M., Liu, X., Zhang, R., and Brown, H.: A process-oriented evaluation of dust emission parameterizations in CESM: Simulation of a typical severe dust storm in East Asia, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 8, 1432–1452, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000723, 2016.
Wu, T. and Boor, B. E.: Urban aerosol size distributions: a global perspective, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8883–8914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8883-2021, 2021.
Xu, M., Wang, X., Sun, T., Wu, H., Li, X., and Kang, S.: Water balance change and its implications to vegetation in the Tarim River Basin, Central Asia, Quatern. Int., 523, 25–36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2019.05.008, 2019.
Yukimoto, S., Koshiro, T., Kawai, H., Oshima, N., Yoshida, K., Urakawa, S., Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Tanaka, T., Hosaka, M., Yoshimura, H., Shindo, E., Mizuta, R., Ishii, M., Obata, A., and Adachi, Y.: The Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model Version 2.0, MRI-ESM2.0: Description and basic evaluation of the physical component, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 97, 931–965, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2019-051, 2019.
Zender, C. S., Bian, H., and Newman, D.: Mineral Dust Entrainment and Deposition (DEAD) model: Description and 1990s dust climatology, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4416, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002775, 2003.
Zhang, X.-X., Claiborn, C., Lei, J.-Q., Vaughan, J., Wu, S.-X., Li, S.-Y., Liu, L.-Y., Wang, Z.-F., Wang, Y.-D., Huang, S.-Y., and Li, J.: Aeolian dust in Central Asia: spatial distribution and temporal variability, Atmos. Environ., 238, 117734, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117734, 2020.
Zhao, A., Ryder, C. L., and Wilcox, L. J.: How well do the CMIP6 models simulate dust aerosols?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2095–2119, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2095-2022, 2022.
Zhao, A., Wilcox, L. J., and Ryder, C. L.: The key role of atmospheric absorption in the Asian summer monsoon response to dust emissions in CMIP6 models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13385–13402, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13385-2024, 2024.
Zhao, Y., Yue, X., Cao, Y., Zhu, J., Tian, C., Zhou, H., Chen, Y., Hu, Y., Fu, W., and Zhao, X.: Multi-model ensemble projection of the global dust cycle by the end of 21st century using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7823–7838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023, 2023.
Short summary
Central Asia’s worsening dust storms, driven by three major expanding desert source regions, could nearly double by 2100 under high-emission scenarios. Our analysis shows that these storms cool the upper atmosphere while enhancing low-level atmospheric heating, locally reducing surface sunlight by up to 20%—enough to threaten crop productivity. In spring, dust storms near Kashgar heat the lower atmosphere up to 30 times faster than at less dust-affected sites such as Lake Issyk-Kul.
Central Asia’s worsening dust storms, driven by three major expanding desert source regions,...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint