Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3881-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3881-2026
Research article
 | 
19 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 19 Mar 2026

Assessment and prediction of dust emissions, deposition and radiation forcing in Central Asia

Ying Gan, Zhe Zhang, Wen Chu, Jianli Ding, and Yuxin Ren

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Short summary
Central Asia’s worsening dust storms, driven by three major expanding desert source regions, could nearly double by 2100 under high-emission scenarios. Our analysis shows that these storms cool the upper atmosphere while enhancing low-level atmospheric heating, locally reducing surface sunlight by up to 20%—enough to threaten crop productivity. In spring, dust storms near Kashgar heat the lower atmosphere up to 30 times faster than at less dust-affected sites such as Lake Issyk-Kul.
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