Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
ACP
Articles | Volume 25, issue 13
Articles | Volume 25, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7299-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7299-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 13
ACP Letters
 | Highlight paper
 | 
14 Jul 2025
ACP Letters | Highlight paper |  | 14 Jul 2025

Observational constraints suggest a smaller effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions

Chanyoung Park, Brian J. Soden, Ryan J. Kramer, Tristan S. L'Ecuyer, and Haozhe He

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Aerosols moderate climate change by modifying cloud properties to make them more reflective to sunlight, but the magnitude of the effect remains very uncertain, with important implications for future climate change. This study combines satellite observations and reanalysis data to calculate a much weaker radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions than previous studies. The implication is that aerosols may play a smaller role in climate change than has been widely supposed.
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This study addresses the long-standing challenge of quantifying the impact of aerosol–cloud interactions. Using satellite observations, reanalysis data, and a "perfect-model" cross-validation, we show that explicitly accounting for aerosol–cloud droplet activation rates is key to accurately estimating ERFaci (effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions). Our results indicate a smaller and less uncertain ERFaci than previously assessed, implying the reduced role of aerosol–cloud interactions in shaping climate sensitivity.
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