Articles | Volume 25, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6445-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6445-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Jun 2025
Research article |
| 27 Jun 2025
| 27 Jun 2025
Inverse modelling of New Zealand's carbon dioxide balance estimates a larger than expected carbon sink
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
Gordon Brailsford
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
Dan Smale
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand
Elizabeth D. Keller
GNS Science, National Isotope Centre, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
W. Troy Baisden
Te Pūnaha Matatini Centre of Research Excellence and Motu Research, Wellington, New Zealand
Miko U. F. Kirschbaum
Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research, Palmerston North, New Zealand
Donna L. Giltrap
Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research, Palmerston North, New Zealand
Lìyǐn Liáng
Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research, Palmerston North, New Zealand
Stuart Moore
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
Rowena Moss
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
Sylvia Nichol
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
Jocelyn Turnbull
GNS Science, National Isotope Centre, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Alex Geddes
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand
Daemon Kennett
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
Dóra Hidy
Excellence Center, Faculty of Science, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Martonvásár, Hungary
Zoltán Barcza
Department of Meteorology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary
Louis A. Schipper
School of Science and Environmental Research Institute, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand
Aaron M. Wall
School of Science and Environmental Research Institute, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand
Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Hitoshi Mukai
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Andrea Brandon
New Zealand Ministry for the Environment, Wellington, New Zealand
Data sets
CarbonTracker CT2022 A. R. Jacobson et al. https://doi.org/10.25925/Z1GJ-3254
CO2 emissions of all world countries, EUR 31182 EN (https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_ghg70) M. Crippa et al. https://doi.org/10.2760/07904
Model code and software
CarbonWatch-NZ: New Zealand National Scale CO2 Inverse Modelling B. Bukosa et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14306816
Short summary
We used atmospheric measurements and inverse modelling to estimate New Zealand's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and removals from 2011 to 2020. Our study reveals that New Zealand's land absorbs more CO2 than previously estimated, particularly in areas dominated by indigenous forests. Our results highlight gaps in current national CO2 estimates and methods, suggesting a need for further research to improve emissions reports and refine approaches to track progress toward climate mitigation goals.
We used atmospheric measurements and inverse modelling to estimate New Zealand's carbon dioxide...
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