Articles | Volume 25, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
12 Mar 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 12 Mar 2025
| 12 Mar 2025
Modelled surface climate response to effusive Icelandic volcanic eruptions: sensitivity to season and size
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Trude Storelvmo
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Nord University Business School, Nord University, Bodø, Norway
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Related authors
No articles found.
Filip Severin von der Lippe, Tim Carlsen, Trude Storelvmo, and Robert Oscar David
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3711, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates how clouds associated with Arctic marine cold air outbreaks (CAOs) respond to climate change. By utilizing machine learning methods and remote sensing data from the past 25 years, the study identifies trends indicating a shortening of the CAO season. This has implications for the Arctic energy balance, underscoring the importance of further investigating these clouds to understand the trajectory of future Arctic climate.
Ove W. Haugvaldstad, Dirk Olivié, Trude Storelvmo, and Michael Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1030, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examine what would happen if desert dust in the atmosphere doubled, motivated by dust sedimentation records showing a large increase in dust levels since industrialization began. Using climate model simulations, we assess how more dust affects Earth's energy balance and rainfall. We found that models disagree on whether more dust overall cools or warms the planet. Additionally, more dust tends to reduce rainfall because it absorbs radiation and encourages the formation of ice clouds.
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth system model, we explore the effect of improving the representation of clouds, ocean eddies, the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, and ozone on the projected Arctic winter warming in a coordinated experiment set. These improvements all lead to enhanced projected Arctic warming, with the largest changes found in the sea-ice retreat regions and the largest uncertainty on the Atlantic side.
Astrid B. Gjelsvik, Robert O. David, Tim Carlsen, Franziska Hellmuth, Stefan Hofer, Zachary McGraw, Harald Sodemann, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1617–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ice formation in clouds has a substantial impact on radiation and precipitation and must be realistically simulated in order to understand present and future Arctic climate. Rare aerosols known as ice-nucleating particles can play an important role in cloud ice formation, but their representation in global climate models is not well suited for the Arctic. In this study, the simulation of cloud phase is improved when the representation of these particles is constrained by Arctic observations.
Franziska Hellmuth, Tim Carlsen, Anne Sophie Daloz, Robert Oscar David, Haochi Che, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1353–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article compares the occurrence of supercooled liquid-containing clouds (sLCCs) and their link to surface snowfall in CloudSat–CALIPSO, ERA5, and the CMIP6 models. Significant discrepancies were found, with ERA5 and CMIP6 consistently overestimating sLCC and snowfall frequency. This bias is likely due to cloud microphysics parameterization. This conclusion has implications for accurately representing cloud phase and snowfall in future climate projections.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Magne Aldrin, Terje K. Berntsen, Marit Holden, Ragnar Bang Huseby, Gunnar Myhre, and Trude Storelvmo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1435–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are central quantities in climate science that are uncertain and contribute to the spread in climate projections. To constrain them, we use observations of temperature and ocean heat content as well as prior knowledge of radiative forcings over the industrialized period. The estimates are sensitive to how aerosol cooling evolved over the latter part of the 20th century, and a strong aerosol forcing trend in the 1960s–1970s is not supported by our analysis.
Britta Schäfer, Robert Oscar David, Paraskevi Georgakaki, Julie Thérèse Pasquier, Georgia Sotiropoulou, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7179–7202, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mixed-phase clouds, i.e., clouds consisting of ice and supercooled water, are very common in the Arctic. However, how these clouds form is often not correctly represented in standard weather models. We show that both ice crystal concentrations in the cloud and precipitation from the cloud can be improved in the model when aerosol concentrations are prescribed from observations and when more processes for ice multiplication, i.e., the production of new ice particles from existing ice, are added.
Dennis Booge, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Birgit Quack, and Kirstin Krüger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 801–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-801-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Oceanic bromoform, produced by algae, is an important precursor of atmospheric bromine, highlighting the importance of implementing these emissions in climate models. The simulated mean oceanic concentrations align well with observations, while the mean atmospheric values are lower than the observed ones. Modelled annual mean emissions mostly occur from the sea to the air and are driven by oceanic concentrations, sea surface temperature, and wind speed, which depend on season and location.
Zhihong Zhuo, Herman F. Fuglestvedt, Matthew Toohey, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6233–6249, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6233-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6233-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work simulated volcanic eruptions with varied eruption source parameters under different initial conditions with a fully coupled Earth system model. We show that initial atmospheric conditions control the meridional distribution of volcanic volatiles and modulate volcanic forcing and subsequent climate and environmental impacts of tropical and Northern Hemisphere extratropical eruptions. This highlights the potential for predicting these impacts as early as the first post-eruption month.
Idunn Aamnes Mostue, Stefan Hofer, Trude Storelvmo, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 – CMIP6) warm more over Greenland and the Arctic and thus also project a larger mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) compared to the previous generation of climate models (CMIP5). Our work suggests for the first time that part of the greater mass loss in CMIP6 over the GrIS is driven by a difference in the surface mass balance sensitivity from a change in cloud representation in the CMIP6 models.
Casey J. Wall, Trude Storelvmo, and Anna Possner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13125–13141, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Interactions between aerosol pollution and liquid clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the effective radiative forcing of climate over the industrial era. We use global satellite observations to decompose the forcing into components from changes in cloud-droplet number concentration, cloud water content, and cloud amount. Our results reduce uncertainty in these forcing components and clarify their relative importance.
Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Trude Eidhammer, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Jian Sun, Richard Forbes, Zachary McGraw, Jiang Zhu, Trude Storelvmo, and John Dennis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1735-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds are a critical part of weather and climate prediction. In this work, we document updates and corrections to the description of clouds used in several Earth system models. These updates include the ability to run the scheme on graphics processing units (GPUs), changes to the numerical description of precipitation, and a correction to the ice number. There are big improvements in the computational performance that can be achieved with GPU acceleration.
Evelien van Dijk, Ingar Mørkestøl Gundersen, Anna de Bode, Helge Høeg, Kjetil Loftsgarden, Frode Iversen, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, and Kirstin Krüger
Clim. Past, 19, 357–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-6th century was one of the coldest periods of the last 2000 years as characterized by great societal changes. Here, we study the effect of the volcanic double event in 536 CE and 540 CE on climate and society in southern Norway. The combined climate and growing degree day models and high-resolution pollen and archaeological records reveal that the northern and western sites are vulnerable to crop failure with possible abandonment of farms, whereas the southeastern site is more resilient.
Shih-Wei Fang, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, Kirstin Krüger, and Hauke Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1535–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. This study quantifies potential surface cooling from the solar and volcanic forcing in the early 19th century with large ensemble simulations, and identifies the regions that their impacts cannot be simply additive. The cooling perspective of Arctic amplification exists in both solar and post-volcano period with the albedo feedback as the main contribution.
Britta Schäfer, Tim Carlsen, Ingrid Hanssen, Michael Gausa, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9537–9551, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9537-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Cloud properties are important for the surface radiation budget. This study presents cold-cloud observations based on lidar measurements from the Norwegian Arctic between 2011 and 2017. Using statistical assessments and case studies, we give an overview of the macro- and microphysical properties of these clouds and demonstrate the capabilities of long-term cloud observations in the Norwegian Arctic from the ground-based lidar at Andenes.
Evelien van Dijk, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Claudia Timmreck, and Kirstin Krüger
Clim. Past, 18, 1601–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A double volcanic eruption in 536 and 540 CE caused one of the coldest decades during the last 2000 years. We analyzed new climate model simulations from that period and found a cooling of up to 2°C and a sea-ice extent up to 200 km further south. Complex interactions between sea ice and ocean circulation lead to a reduction in the northward ocean heat transport, which makes the sea ice extend further south; this in turn leads to a surface cooling up to 20 years after the eruptions.
Guangyu Liu, Toshihiko Hirooka, Nawo Eguchi, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3493–3505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3493-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3493-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that occurred in September 2019 in the Southern Hemisphere was analyzed. A large warming and decelerated westerly winds were observed in the southern polar region. Since a reversal from westerly to easterly winds did not take place SSW2019 was classified as a minor SSW. The total wave forcing and the contribution from PW1 were larger in 2019. The strong and long-lasting planetary-scale waves with zonal wavenumber 1 played a role in SSW2019.
Paul D. Hamer, Virginie Marécal, Ryan Hossaini, Michel Pirre, Gisèle Krysztofiak, Franziska Ziska, Andreas Engel, Stephan Sala, Timo Keber, Harald Bönisch, Elliot Atlas, Kirstin Krüger, Martyn Chipperfield, Valery Catoire, Azizan A. Samah, Marcel Dorf, Phang Siew Moi, Hans Schlager, and Klaus Pfeilsticker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16955–16984, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16955-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16955-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Bromoform is a stratospheric ozone-depleting gas released by seaweed and plankton transported to the stratosphere via convection in the tropics. We study the chemical interactions of bromoform and its derivatives within convective clouds using a cloud-scale model and observations. Our findings are that soluble bromine gases are efficiently washed out and removed within the convective clouds and that most bromine is transported vertically to the upper troposphere in the form of bromoform.
Sorin Nicolae Vâjâiac, Andreea Calcan, Robert Oscar David, Denisa-Elena Moacă, Gabriela Iorga, Trude Storelvmo, Viorel Vulturescu, and Valeriu Filip
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 6777–6794, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Warm clouds (with liquid droplets) play an important role in modulating the amount of incoming solar radiation to Earth’s surface and thus the climate. The most efficient way to study them is by in situ optical measurements. This paper proposes a new methodology for providing more detailed and reliable structural analyses of warm clouds through post-flight processing of collected data. The impact fine aerosol incorporation in water droplets might have on such measurements is also discussed.
Kine Onsum Moseid, Michael Schulz, Trude Storelvmo, Ingeborg Rian Julsrud, Dirk Olivié, Pierre Nabat, Martin Wild, Jason N. S. Cole, Toshihiko Takemura, Naga Oshima, Susanne E. Bauer, and Guillaume Gastineau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 16023–16040, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-16023-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-16023-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we compare solar radiation at the surface from observations and Earth system models from 1961 to 2014. We find that the models do not reproduce the so-called
global dimmingas found in observations. Only model experiments with anthropogenic aerosol emissions display any dimming at all. The discrepancies between observations and models are largest in China, which we suggest is in part due to erroneous aerosol precursor emission inventories in the emission dataset used for CMIP6.
Cited articles
Albrecht, B. A.: Aerosols, cloud microphysics, and fractional cloudiness, Science, 245, 1227–1230, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.245.4923.1227, 1989. a, b
Andersson, S. M., Martinsson, B. G., Vernier, J.-P., Friberg, J., Brenninkmeijer, C. A., Hermann, M., Van Velthoven, P. F., and Zahn, A.: Significant radiative impact of volcanic aerosol in the lowermost stratosphere, Nat. Commun., 6, 7692, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8692, 2015. a
Barlow, R. J.: Statistics: a guide to the use of statistical methods in the physical sciences, Manchester Physics Series, John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 0471922951, 1993. a
Barth, M., Rasch, P., Kiehl, J., Benkovitz, C., and Schwartz, S.: Sulfur chemistry in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model: Description, evaluation, features, and sensitivity to aqueous chemistry, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 105, 1387–1415, https://doi.org/10.1029/96JD01222, 2000. a
Bekki, S.: Oxidation of volcanic SO2: a sink for stratospheric OH and H2O, Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 913–916, https://doi.org/10.1029/95GL00534, 1995. a
Bellouin, N., Quaas, J., Gryspeerdt, E., Kinne, S., Stier, P., Watson-Parris, D., Boucher, O., Carslaw, K. S., Christensen, M., Daniau, A.-L., Dufresne, J.-L., Feingold, G., Fiedler, S., Forster, P., Gettelman, A., Haywood, J. M., Lohmann, U., Malavelle, F., Mauritsen, T., McCoy, D. T., Myhre, G., Mülmenstädt, J., Neubauer, D., Possner, A., Rugenstein, M., Sato, Y., Schulz, M., Schwartz, S. E., Sourdeval, O., Storelvmo, T., Toll, V., Winker, D., and Stevens, B.: Bounding global aerosol radiative forcing of climate change, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000660, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000660, 2020. a
Bigg, E. K. and Leck, C.: Cloud-active particles over the central Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 32155–32166, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD901152, 2001. a
Bonny, E., Thordarson, T., Wright, R., Höskuldsson, A., and Jónsdóttir, I.: The volume of lava erupted during the 2014 to 2015 eruption at Holuhraun, Iceland: A comparison between satellite-and ground-based measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 123, 5412–5426, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JB015008, 2018. a
Breen, K. H., Barahona, D., Yuan, T., Bian, H., and James, S. C.: Effect of volcanic emissions on clouds during the 2008 and 2018 Kilauea degassing events, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7749–7771, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7749-2021, 2021. a
Carn, S., Clarisse, L., and Prata, A. J.: Multi-decadal satellite measurements of global volcanic degassing, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 311, 99–134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2016.01.002, 2016. a
Case, P., Colarco, P. R., Toon, B., Aquila, V., and Keller, C. A.: Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Microphysics-Chemistry Simulations of the 1991 Pinatubo Volcanic Aerosols With Newly Coupled Sectional Aerosol and Stratosphere-Troposphere Chemistry Modules in the NASA GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 15, e2022MS003147, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003147, 2023. a
Chen, Y., Haywood, J., Wang, Y., Malavelle, F., Jordan, G., Partridge, D., Fieldsend, J., De Leeuw, J., Schmidt, A., Cho, N., Oreopoulos, L., Platnick, S., Grosvenor, D., Field, P., and Lohmann, U.: Machine learning reveals climate forcing from aerosols is dominated by increased cloud cover, Nat. Geosci., 15, 609–614, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00991-6, 2022. a, b
Chen, Y., Haywood, J., Wang, Y., Malavelle, F., Jordan, G., Peace, A., Partridge, D. G., Cho, N., Oreopoulos, L., Grosvenor, D., Field, P., Allan, R. P., and Lohmann, U.: Substantial cooling effect from aerosol-induced increase in tropical marine cloud cover, Nat. Geosci., 17, 404–410, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01427-z, 2024. a
Chin, M. and Jacob, D. J.: Anthropogenic and natural contributions to tropospheric sulfate: A global model analysis, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 101, 18691–18699, https://doi.org/10.1029/96JD01222, 1996. a
Choudhury, G. and Tesche, M.: A first global height-resolved cloud condensation nuclei data set derived from spaceborne lidar measurements, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3747–3760, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3747-2023, 2023. a
Clapp, M., Niedziela, R., Richwine, L., Dransfield, T., Miller, R., and Worsnop, D.: Infrared spectroscopy of sulfuric acid/water aerosols: Freezing characteristics, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 8899–8907, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD00012, 1997. a
Curry, J. A., Schramm, J. L., Rossow, W. B., and Randall, D.: Overview of Arctic cloud and radiation characteristics, J. Climate, 9, 1731–1764, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1731:OOACAR>2.0.CO;2, 1996. a
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier, A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Holland, M. M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R., Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A. S., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S., van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C., Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E., Kinnison, D., Kushner, P. J., Larson, V. E., Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E., Polvani, L., Rasch, P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001916, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020. a, b
Eguchi, K., Uno, I., Yumimoto, K., Takemura, T., Nakajima, T. Y., Uematsu, M., and Liu, Z.: Modulation of cloud droplets and radiation over the North Pacific by sulfate aerosol erupted from Mount Kilauea, Sola, 7, 77–80, https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2011-020, 2011. a, b
Esse, B., Burton, M., Hayer, C., Pfeffer, M. A., Barsotti, S., Theys, N., Barnie, T., and Titos, M.: Satellite derived SO2 emissions from the relatively low-intensity, effusive 2021 eruption of Fagradalsfjall, Iceland, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 619, 118325, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2023.118325, 2023. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Forster, P., Storelvmo, T., Armour, K., Collins, W., Dufresne, J.-L., Frame, D., Lunt, D., Mauritsen, T., Palmer, M., Watanabe, M., Wild, M., and Zhang, H.: The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J., Maycock, T., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 923–1054, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.009, 2021. a
Fouquart, Y., Buriez, J., Herman, M., and Kandel, R.: The influence of clouds on radiation: A climate-modeling perspective, Rev. Geophys., 28, 145–166, https://doi.org/10.1029/RG028i002p00145, 1990. a
Fuglestvedt, H. F., Zhuo, Z., Toohey, M., and Krüger, K.: Volcanic forcing of high-latitude Northern Hemisphere eruptions, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 7, 10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00539-4, 2024. a
Gassó, S.: Satellite observations of the impact of weak volcanic activity on marine clouds, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D14S19, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009106, 2008. a
Gettelman, A. and Morrison, H.: Advanced two-moment bulk microphysics for global models. Part I: Off-line tests and comparison with other schemes, J. Climate, 28, 1268–1287, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00102.1, 2015. a, b
Gettelman, A., Schmidt, A., and Egill Kristjánsson, J.: Icelandic volcanic emissions and climate, Nat. Geosci., 8, 243–243, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2376, 2015. a, b
Gettelman, A., Mills, M. J., Kinnison, D. E., Garcia, R. R., Smith, A. K., Marsh, D. R., Tilmes, S., Vitt, F., Bardeen, C. G., McInerny, J., Liu, H.-L., Solomon, S. C., Polvani, L. M., Emmons, L. K., Lamarque, J.-F., Richter, J. H., Glanville, A. S., Bacmeister, J. T., Phillips, A. S., Neale, R. B., Simpson, I. R., DuVivier, A. K., Hodzic, A., and Randel, W. J.: The whole atmosphere community climate model version 6 (WACCM6), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 12380–12403, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030943, 2019. a
Gíslason, S. R., Stefánsdóttir, G., Pfeffer, M. A., Barsotti, S., Jóhannsson, T., Galeczka, I., Bali, E., Sigmarsson, O., Stefánsson, A., Keller, N. S., Sigurdsson, Á., Bergsson, B., Galle, B., Jacobo, V. C., Arellano, S., Aiuppa, A., Jónasdóttir, E. B., Eiríksdóttir, E. S., Jakobsson, S., Guðfinnsson, G. H., Halldórsson, S. A., Gunnarsson, H., Haddadi, B., Jónsdóttir, I., Thordarson, T., Riishuus, M., Högnadóttir, T., Dürig, T., Pedersen, G. B. M., Höskuldsson, Á., and Gudmundsson, M. T.: Environmental pressure from the 2014–15 eruption of Bárðarbunga volcano, Iceland, Geochemical Perspectives Letters, 1, 84–93, https://doi.org/10.7185/geochemlet.1509, 2015. a
Glenn, I. B., Feingold, G., Gristey, J. J., and Yamaguchi, T.: Quantification of the radiative effect of aerosol–cloud interactions in shallow continental cumulus clouds, J. Atmos. Sci., 77, 2905–2920, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-19-0269.1, 2020. a
Golaz, J.-C., Larson, V. E., and Cotton, W. R.: A PDF-based model for boundary layer clouds. Part I: Method and model description, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 3540–3551, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<3540:APBMFB>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Graf, H.-F., Langmann, B., and Feichter, J.: The contribution of Earth degassing to the atmospheric sulfur budget, Chem. Geol., 147, 131–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0009-2541(97)00177-0, 1998. a
Guo, Z., Wang, M., Qian, Y., Larson, V. E., Ghan, S., Ovchinnikov, M., A. Bogenschutz, P., Gettelman, A., and Zhou, T.: Parametric behaviors of CLUBB in simulations of low clouds in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 7, 1005–1025, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000405, 2015. a
Haghighatnasab, M., Kretzschmar, J., Block, K., and Quaas, J.: Impact of Holuhraun volcano aerosols on clouds in cloud-system-resolving simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8457–8472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8457-2022, 2022. a
Han, Q., Rossow, W. B., Chou, J., and Welch, R. M.: Global survey of the relationships of cloud albedo and liquid water path with droplet size using ISCCP, J. Climate, 11, 1516–1528, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1516:GSOTRO>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a
Haywood, J. M., Jones, A., Clarisse, L., Bourassa, A., Barnes, J., Telford, P., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., Agnew, P., Clerbaux, C., Coheur, P., Degenstein, D., and Braesicke, P.: Observations of the eruption of the Sarychev volcano and simulations using the HadGEM2 climate model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D21212, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014447, 2010. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7, 2024. a, b
Hjartarson, Á.: Þjórsárhraunið mikla – stærsta nútímahraun jarðar, Náttúrufræðingurinn, 58, 1–16, 1988 (in Icelandic with an English abstract). a
Hobbs, P. V.: Introduction to atmospheric chemistry, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808913, 2000. a
Hoesly, R. M., Smith, S. J., Feng, L., Klimont, Z., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Pitkanen, T., Seibert, J. J., Vu, L., Andres, R. J., Bolt, R. M., Bond, T. C., Dawidowski, L., Kholod, N., Kurokawa, J.-I., Li, M., Liu, L., Lu, Z., Moura, M. C. P., O'Rourke, P. R., and Zhang, Q.: Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 369–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018, 2018. a
Hutchison, W., Gabriel, I., Plunkett, G., Burke, A., Sugden, P., Innes, H., Davies, S., Moreland, W. M., Krüger, K., Wilson, R., Vinther, B. M., Dahl-Jensen, D., Freitag, J., Oppenheimer, C., Chellman, N. J., Sigl, M., and McConnell, J. R.: High‐Resolution Ice‐Core Analyses Identify the Eldgjá Eruption and a Cluster of Icelandic and Trans‐Continental Tephras Between 936 and 943 CE, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 129, e2023JD040142, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD040142, 2024. a
Karset, I. H. H., Berntsen, T. K., Storelvmo, T., Alterskjær, K., Grini, A., Olivié, D., Kirkevåg, A., Seland, Ø., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: Strong impacts on aerosol indirect effects from historical oxidant changes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7669–7690, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7669-2018, 2018. a
Karset, I. H. H., Gettelman, A., Storelvmo, T., Alterskjær, K., and Berntsen, T. K.: Exploring impacts of size-dependent evaporation and entrainment in a global model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD031817, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031817, 2020. a
Kasbohm, J. and Schoene, B.: Rapid eruption of the Columbia River flood basalt and correlation with the mid-Miocene climate optimum, Science Advances, 4, eaat8223, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat8223, 2018. a
Kiehl, J. and Briegleb, B.: The relative roles of sulfate aerosols and greenhouse gases in climate forcing, Science, 260, 311–314, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.260.5106.311, 1993. a
Kravitz, B. and Robock, A.: Climate effects of high-latitude volcanic eruptions: Role of the time of year, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D01105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014448, 2011. a
Kravitz, B., Robock, A., and Bourassa, A.: Negligible climatic effects from the 2008 Okmok and Kasatochi volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D00L05, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013525, 2010. a
Liu, X., Easter, R. C., Ghan, S. J., Zaveri, R., Rasch, P., Shi, X., Lamarque, J.-F., Gettelman, A., Morrison, H., Vitt, F., Conley, A., Park, S., Neale, R., Hannay, C., Ekman, A. M. L., Hess, P., Mahowald, N., Collins, W., Iacono, M. J., Bretherton, C. S., Flanner, M. G., and Mitchell, D.: Toward a minimal representation of aerosols in climate models: description and evaluation in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 709–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-709-2012, 2012. a
Liu, X., Ma, P.-L., Wang, H., Tilmes, S., Singh, B., Easter, R. C., Ghan, S. J., and Rasch, P. J.: Description and evaluation of a new four-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) within version 5.3 of the Community Atmosphere Model, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 505–522, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-505-2016, 2016. a, b
Malavelle, F. F., Haywood, J. M., Jones, A., Gettelman, A., Clarisse, L., Bauduin, S., Allan, R. P., Karset, I. H. H., Kristjánsson, J. E., Oreopoulos, L., Cho, N., Lee, D., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., Grosvenor, D. P., Carslaw, K. S., Dhomse, S., Mann, G. W., Schmidt, A., Coe, H., Hartley, M. E., Dalvi, M., Hill, A. A., Johnson, B. T., Johnson, C. E., Knight, J. R., O'Connor, F. M., Partridge, D. G., Stier, P., Myhre, G., Platnick, S., Stephens, G. L., Takahashi, H., and Thordarson, T.: Strong constraints on aerosol–cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions, Nature, 546, 485–491, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22974, 2017. a, b, c, d, e
Marshall, L. R., Smith, C. J., Forster, P. M., Aubry, T. J., Andrews, T., and Schmidt, A.: Large variations in volcanic aerosol forcing efficiency due to eruption source parameters and rapid adjustments, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL090241, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090241, 2020. a
McCoy, D. T. and Hartmann, D. L.: Observations of a substantial cloud-aerosol indirect effect during the 2014–2015 Bárðarbunga-Veiðivötn fissure eruption in Iceland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10–409, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067070, 2015. a
Murray-Watson, R. J. and Gryspeerdt, E.: Stability-dependent increases in liquid water with droplet number in the Arctic, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5743–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5743-2022, 2022. a
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016. a
Oppenheimer, C., Orchard, A., Stoffel, M., Newfield, T. P., Guillet, S., Corona, C., Sigl, M., Di Cosmo, N., and Büntgen, U.: The Eldgjá eruption: timing, long-range impacts and influence on the Christianisation of Iceland, Climatic Change, 147, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2171-9, 2018. a
Pfeffer, M. A., Bergsson, B., Barsotti, S., Stefánsdóttir, G., Galle, B., Arellano, S., Conde, V., Donovan, A., Ilyinskaya, E., Burton, M., Aiuppa, A., Whitty, R. C. W., Simmons, I. C., Arason, Þ., Jónasdóttir, E. B., Keller, N. S., Yeo, R. F., Arngrímsson, H., Jóhannsson, Þ., Butwin, M. K., Askew, R. A., Dumont, S., Von Löwis, S., Ingvarsson, Þ., La Spina, A., Thomas, H., Prata, F., Grassa, F., Giudice, G., Stefánsson, A., Marzano, F., Montopoli, M., and Mereu, L.: Ground-based measurements of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun volcanic cloud (Iceland), Geosciences, 8, 29, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8010029, 2018. a, b
Pfeffer, M. A., Arellano, S., Barsotti, S., Petersen, G. N., Barnie, T., Ilyinskaya, E., Hjörvar, T., Bali, E., Pedersen, G. B. M., Guðmundsson, G. B., Vogfjorð, K., Ranta, E. J., Óladóttir, B. A., Edwards, B. A., Moussallam, Y., Stefánsson, A., Scott, S. W., Smekens, J.-F., Varnam, M., and Titos, M.: SO2 emission rates and incorporation into the air pollution dispersion forecast during the 2021 eruption of Fagradalsfjall, Iceland, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 449, 108064, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2024.108064, 2024. a, b
Pinto, J. P., Turco, R. P., and Toon, O. B.: Self-limiting physical and chemical effects in volcanic eruption clouds, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 94, 11165–11174, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD094iD08p11165, 1989. a
Robock, A.: Volcanic eruptions and climate, Rev. Geophys., 38, 191–219, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998RG000054, 2000. a, b
Savarino, J., Bekki, S., Cole-Dai, J., and Thiemens, M. H.: Evidence from sulfate mass independent oxygen isotopic compositions of dramatic changes in atmospheric oxidation following massive volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4671, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003737, 2003. a
Schmidt, A. and Carn, S.: Volcanic emissions, aerosol processes, and climatic effects, in: Aerosols and Climate, Elsevier, 707–746, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-819766-0.00017-1, 2022. a
Schmidt, A., Carslaw, K. S., Mann, G. W., Rap, A., Pringle, K. J., Spracklen, D. V., Wilson, M., and Forster, P. M.: Importance of tropospheric volcanic aerosol for indirect radiative forcing of climate, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 7321–7339, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-7321-2012, 2012. a, b
Schneider, D. P., Ammann, C. M., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., and Kaufman, D. S.: Climate response to large, high-latitude and low-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Community Climate System Model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D15101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011222, 2009. a
Shupe, M. D. and Intrieri, J. M.: Cloud radiative forcing of the Arctic surface: The influence of cloud properties, surface albedo, and solar zenith angle, J. Climate, 17, 616–628, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0616:CRFOTA>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Siebert, L., Simkin, T., and Kimberly, P.: Volcanoes of the World, 3rd edn., University of California Press, ISBN 978-0-520-26877-7, 2010. a
Sigmundsson, F., Parks, M., Geirsson, H., Hooper, A., Drouin, V., Vogfjörd, K. S., Ófeigsson, B. G., Greiner, S. H. M., Yang, Y., Lanzi, C., De Pascale, G. P., Jónsdóttir, K., Hreinsdóttir, S., Tolpekin, V., Friðriksdóttir, H. M., Einarsson, P., and Barsotti, S.: Fracturing and tectonic stress drive ultrarapid magma flow into dikes, Science, 383, 1228–1235, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn2838, 2024. a
Sigurðardóttir, S. S., Gudmundsson, M. T., and Hreinsdóttir, S.: Mapping of the Eldgjá lava flow on Mýrdalssandur with magnetic surveying, Jökull, 65, 61–71, 2015. a
Slingo, A., Brown, R., and Wrench, C.: A field study of nocturnal stratocumulus; III. High resolution radiative and microphysical observations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 108, 145–165, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710845509, 1982. a
Storelvmo, T., Hoose, C., and Eriksson, P.: Global modeling of mixed-phase clouds: The albedo and lifetime effects of aerosols, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D05207, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014724, 2011. a
Tan, I. and Storelvmo, T.: Evidence of strong contributions from mixed-phase clouds to Arctic climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2894–2902, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081871, 2019. a
Textor, C., Graf, H.-F., Timmreck, C., and Robock, A.: Emissions from volcanoes, in: Emissions of atmospheric trace compounds, Springer, 269–303, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-2167-1_7, 2004. a
Thordarson, T. and Hartley, M.: Atmospheric sulfur loading by the ongoing Nornahraun eruption, North Iceland, in: EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Vienna, Austria, 12–17 April 2015, EGU2015-10708, https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2015/EGU2015-10708.pdf (last access: 6 March 2025), 2015. a
Thordarson, T. and Larsen, G.: Volcanism in Iceland in historical time: Volcano types, eruption styles and eruptive history, J. Geodynam., 43, 118–152, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2006.09.005, 2007. a, b
Thordarson, T. and Self, S.: The Laki (Skaftár fires) and Grímsvötn eruptions in 1783–1785, B. Volcanol., 55, 233–263, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00624353, 1993. a
Thordarson, T. and Self, S.: Atmospheric and environmental effects of the 1783–1784 Laki eruption: A review and reassessment, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, AAC–7, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD002042, 2003. a
Thordarson, T., Miller, D., Larsen, G., Self, S., and Sigurdsson, H.: New estimates of sulfur degassing and atmospheric mass-loading by the 934 AD Eldgjá eruption, Iceland, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 108, 33–54, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(00)00277-8, 2001. a, b
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., Sigl, M., Stoffel, M., and Wilson, R.: Disproportionately strong climate forcing from extratropical explosive volcanic eruptions, Nat. Geosci., 12, 100–107, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0286-2, 2019. a
Tsushima, Y., Emori, S., Ogura, T., Kimoto, M., Webb, M., Williams, K., Ringer, M., Soden, B., Li, B., and Andronova, N.: Importance of the mixed-phase cloud distribution in the control climate for assessing the response of clouds to carbon dioxide increase: a multi-model study, Clim. Dynam., 27, 113–126, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0127-7, 2006. a
Twomey, S.: The influence of pollution on the shortwave albedo of clouds, J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 1149–1152, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1977)034<1149:TIOPOT>2.0.CO;2, 1977. a, b
van Marle, M. J. E., Kloster, S., Magi, B. I., Marlon, J. R., Daniau, A.-L., Field, R. D., Arneth, A., Forrest, M., Hantson, S., Kehrwald, N. M., Knorr, W., Lasslop, G., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Yue, C., Kaiser, J. W., and van der Werf, G. R.: Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3329–3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, 2017. a
Wang, X., Mao, F., Zhu, Y., Rosenfeld, D., Pan, Z., Zang, L., Lu, X., Liu, F., and Gong, W.: Hidden large aerosol-driven cloud cover effect over high-latitude ocean, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 129, e2023JD039312, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039312, 2024. a, b
Wendler, G., Eaton, F. D., and Ohtake, T.: Multiple reflection effects on irradiance in the presence of Arctic stratus clouds, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 86, 2049–2057, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC086iC03p02049, 1981. a
Zambri, B., Robock, A., Mills, M. J., and Schmidt, A.: Modeling the 1783–1784 Laki eruption in Iceland: 2. Climate impacts, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 6770–6790, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029553, 2019. a
Zhao, C. and Garrett, T. J.: Effects of Arctic haze on surface cloud radiative forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 557–564, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062015, 2015. a
Zhuo, Z., Fuglestvedt, H. F., Toohey, M., and Krüger, K.: Initial atmospheric conditions control transport of volcanic volatiles, forcing and impacts, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6233–6249, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6233-2024, 2024. a
Zoëga, T.: Modelled surface climate response to Icelandic effusive volcanic eruptions: Sensitivity to season and size, Norstore [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.00002, 2025. a
Executive editor
Effusive, long-lasting volcanic eruptions impact climate through emission of gases and subsequent production of aerosols. Although previous studies have shown that the sulphate aerosol produced by these eruptions cools Earth's climate, this Earth system modelling study shows that high-latitude effusive eruptions can cause Arctic warming during the fall and wintertime. This warming effect is caused by the enhancement of downward longwave radiation from very optically thin clouds. The results have implications for our understanding of future Arctic climate change as well as any efforts to deliberately modify the climate through solar radiation management.
Effusive, long-lasting volcanic eruptions impact climate through emission of gases and...
Short summary
We use an Earth system model to systematically investigate the climate response to high-latitude effusive volcanic eruptions as a function of eruption season and size, with a focus on the Arctic. We find that different seasons strongly modulate the climate response, with Arctic surface warming observed in winter and cooling in summer. Additionally, as eruptions increase in terms of sulfur dioxide emissions, the climate response becomes increasingly insensitive to variations in emission strength.
We use an Earth system model to systematically investigate the climate response to high-latitude...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint