Articles | Volume 25, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-15765-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-15765-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Nov 2025
Research article |
| 18 Nov 2025
| 18 Nov 2025
Role of aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions in modulating summertime quasi-biweekly rainfall intensity over South China
Hongli Chen
State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Anbao Zhu
State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System Sciences, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
Xiaoyan Ma
Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration, School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Related authors
No articles found.
Anbao Zhu, Haiming Xu, Jiechun Deng, Jing Ma, and Shaofeng Hua
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15425–15447, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15425-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15425-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates the instant and delayed effects of biomass burning (BB) aerosols on precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP). The convection suppression due to the BB aerosol-induced stabilized atmosphere dominates over the favorable water-vapor condition induced by large-scale circulation responses, leading to an overall reduced precipitation in March, while the delayed effect promotes precipitation from early April to mid April due to the anomalous atmospheric circulations.
Anbao Zhu, Haiming Xu, Jiechun Deng, Jing Ma, and Shuhui Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5919–5933, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5919-2021, 2021
Cited articles
Abida, R., Addad, Y., Francis, D., Temimi, M., Nelli, N., Fonseca, R., Nesterov, O., and Bosc, E.: Evaluation of the Performance of the WRF Model in a Hyper-Arid Environment: A Sensitivity Study, Atmosphere, 13, 985, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13060985, 2022.
Ackerman, A. S., Toon, O. B., Stevens, D. E., Heymsfield, A. J., Ramanathan, V., and Welton, E. J.: Reduction of Tropical Cloudiness by Soot, Science, 288, 1042–1047, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.288.5468.1042, 2000.
Albrecht, B. A.: Aerosols, Cloud Microphysics, and Fractional Cloudiness, Science, 245, 1227–1230, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.245.4923.1227, 1989.
Argüeso, D., Hidalgo-Muñoz, J. M., Gámiz-Fortis, S. R., Esteban-Parra, M. J., and Castro-Díez, Y.: High-resolution projections of mean and extreme precipitation over Spain using the WRF model (2070–2099 versus 1970–1999), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017399, 2012.
Arya, V. B., Surendran, S., and Rajendran, K.: On the build-up of dust aerosols and possible indirect effect during Indian summer monsoon break spells using recent satellite observations of aerosols and cloud properties, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 130, 42, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-020-01526-6, 2021.
Austin, R. T., Heymsfield, A. J., and Stephens, G. L.: Retrieval of ice cloud microphysical parameters using the CloudSat millimeter-wave radar and temperature, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010049, 2009.
Baklanov, A., Schlünzen, K., Suppan, P., Baldasano, J., Brunner, D., Aksoyoglu, S., Carmichael, G., Douros, J., Flemming, J., Forkel, R., Galmarini, S., Gauss, M., Grell, G., Hirtl, M., Joffre, S., Jorba, O., Kaas, E., Kaasik, M., Kallos, G., Kong, X., Korsholm, U., Kurganskiy, A., Kushta, J., Lohmann, U., Mahura, A., Manders-Groot, A., Maurizi, A., Moussiopoulos, N., Rao, S. T., Savage, N., Seigneur, C., Sokhi, R. S., Solazzo, E., Solomos, S., Sørensen, B., Tsegas, G., Vignati, E., Vogel, B., and Zhang, Y.: Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe: current status and prospects, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 317–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, 2014.
Bhattacharya, A., Chakraborty, A., and Venugopal, V.: Role of aerosols in modulating cloud properties during active–break cycle of Indian summer monsoon, Clim. Dynam., 49, 2131–2145, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3437-4, 2017.
Bollasina, M. A., Ming, Y., and Ramaswamy, V.: Anthropogenic Aerosols and the Weakening of the South Asian Summer Monsoon, Science, 334, 502–505, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204994, 2011.
Caldwell, P., Chin, H.-N. S., Bader, D. C., and Bala, G.: Evaluation of a WRF dynamical downscaling simulation over California, Climatic Change, 95, 499–521, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9583-5, 2009.
Chen, F., Yang, Y., Yu, L., Li, Y., Liu, W., Liu, Y., and Lolli, S.: Distinct effects of fine and coarse aerosols on microphysical processes of shallow-precipitation systems in summer over southern China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1587–1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1587-2025, 2025.
Chen, G., Yang, J., Bao, Q., and Wang, W.-C.: Intraseasonal responses of the East Asia summer rainfall to anthropogenic aerosol climate forcing, Clim. Dynam., 51, 3985–3998, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3691-0, 2018.
Chen, H., Hsu, P.-C., and Hu, S.: Role of Quasi-Biweekly Cloud-Radiative Feedback in Modulating and Simulating Extreme Rainfall Intensity Over Asian Monsoon Regions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL111671, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111671, 2024.
Chen, M., Shi, W., Xie, P., Silva, V. B. S., Kousky, V. E., Wayne Higgins, R., and Janowiak, J. E.: Assessing objective techniques for gauge-based analyses of global daily precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009132, 2008.
Chen, Y., Yang, K., Zhou, D., Qin, J., and Guo, X.: Improving the Noah Land Surface Model in Arid Regions with an Appropriate Parameterization of the Thermal Roughness Length, J. Hydrol., 11, 995–1006, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1185.1, 2010.
Chyi, D., Wang, X., Yu, X., and Zhang, J.: Synoptic-Scale Analysis on Development and Maintenance of the 19–21 July 2021 Extreme Heavy Rainfall in Henan, Central China, J. Meteorol. Res., 37, 174–191, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-023-2914-z, 2023.
Dave, P., Bhushan, M., and Venkataraman, C.: Aerosols cause intraseasonal short-term suppression of Indian monsoon rainfall, Sci. Rep., 7, 17347, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17599-1, 2017.
Debnath, S., Govardhan, G., Saha, S. K., Hazra, A., Pohkrel, S., Jena, C., Kumar, R., and Ghude, S. D.: Impact of dust aerosols on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall on intra-seasonal time-scale, Atmos. Environ., 305, 119802, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.119802, 2023.
Duchon, C. E.: Lanczos Filtering in One and Two Dimensions, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 18, 1016–1022, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1979)018<1016:LFIOAT>2.0.CO;2, 1979.
Fan, J., Zhang, R., Tao, W.-K., and Mohr, K. I.: Effects of aerosol optical properties on deep convective clouds and radiative forcing, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009257, 2008.
Fan, J., Rosenfeld, D., Yang, Y., Zhao, C., Leung, L. R., and Li, Z.: Substantial contribution of anthropogenic air pollution to catastrophic floods in Southwest China, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6066–6075, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064479, 2015.
Fan, J., Rosenfeld, D., Zhang, Y., Giangrande, S. E., Li, Z., Machado, L. A. T., Martin, S. T., Yang, Y., Wang, J., Artaxo, P., Barbosa, H. M. J., Braga, R. C., Comstock, J. M., Feng, Z., Gao, W., Gomes, H. B., Mei, F., Pöhlker, C., Pöhlker, M. L., Pöschl, U., and de Souza, R. A. F.: Substantial convection and precipitation enhancements by ultrafine aerosol particles, Science, 359, 411–418, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan8461, 2018.
Fan, J., Zhang, Y., Li, Z., Yan, H., Prabhakaran, T., Rosenfeld, D., and Khain, A.: Unveiling Aerosol Impacts on Deep Convective Clouds: Scientific Concept, Modeling, Observational Analysis, and Future Direction, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 130, e2024JD041931, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041931, 2025.
Fast, J. D., Gustafson Jr., W. I., Easter, R. C., Zaveri, R. A., Barnard, J. C., Chapman, E. G., Grell, G. A., and Peckham, S. E.: Evolution of ozone, particulates, and aerosol direct radiative forcing in the vicinity of Houston using a fully coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006721, 2006.
Fu, Z., Hsu, P.-C., and Liu, F.: Factors Regulating the Multidecadal Changes in MJO Amplitude over the Twentieth Century, J. Climate, 33, 9513–9529, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0111.1, 2020.
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L., Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Reichle, R., Wargan, K., Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A., da Silva, A. M., Gu, W., Kim, G.-K., Koster, R., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D., Nielsen, J. E., Partyka, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Rienecker, M., Schubert, S. D., Sienkiewicz, M., and Zhao, B.: The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), J. Climate, 30, 5419–5454, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1, 2017.
Ginoux, P., Chin, M., Tegen, I., Prospero, J. M., Holben, B., Dubovik, O., and Lin, S.-J.: Sources and distributions of dust aerosols simulated with the GOCART model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 20255–20273, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD000053, 2001.
GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office): MERRA-2 tavg1_2d_aer_Nx: 2d,1-Hourly, Time-averaged, Single-Level, Assimilation, Aerosol Diagnostics V5.12.4, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/KLICLTZ8EM9D, 2015a.
GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office): MERRA-2 tavg1_2d_rad_Nx: 2d,1-Hourly, Time-Averaged, Single-Level, Assimilation, Radiation Diagnostics V5.12.4, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/Q9QMY5PBNV1T, 2015b.
GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office): MERRA-2 inst3_3d_asm_Np: 3d,3-Hourly, Instantaneous, Pressure-Level, Assimilation, Assimilated Meteorological Fields V5.12.4, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/QBZ6MG944HW0, 2015c.
Grell, G. A. and Freitas, S. R.: A scale and aerosol aware stochastic convective parameterization for weather and air quality modeling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5233–5250, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5233-2014, 2014.
Grell, G. A., Peckham, S. E., Schmitz, R., McKeen, S. A., Frost, G., Skamarock, W. C., and Eder, B.: Fully coupled “online” chemistry within the WRF model, Atmos. Environ., 39, 6957–6975, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2005.04.027, 2005.
Guenther, A. B., Jiang, X., Heald, C. L., Sakulyanontvittaya, T., Duhl, T., Emmons, L. K., and Wang, X.: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 2.1 (MEGAN2.1): an extended and updated framework for modeling biogenic emissions, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1471–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1471-2012, 2012.
Guo, J., Deng, M., Lee, S. S., Wang, F., Li, Z., Zhai, P., Liu, H., Lv, W., Yao, W., and Li, X.: Delaying precipitation and lightning by air pollution over the Pearl River Delta. Part I: Observational analyses, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 6472–6488, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023257, 2016.
Guo, J., Luo, Y., Yang, J., Furtado, K., and Lei, H.: Effects of anthropogenic and sea salt aerosols on a heavy rainfall event during the early-summer rainy season over coastal Southern China, Atmos. Res., 265, 105923, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105923, 2022.
Guo, X., Fu, D., Guo, X., and Zhang, C.: A case study of aerosol impacts on summer convective clouds and precipitation over northern China, Atmos. Res., 142, 142–157, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.10.006, 2014.
Hazra, A., Goswami, B. N., and Chen, J.-P.: Role of Interactions between Aerosol Radiative Effect, Dynamics, and Cloud Microphysics on Transitions of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 2073–2087, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0179.1, 2013.
He, J., Glotfelty, T., Yahya, K., Alapaty, K., and Yu, S.: Does temperature nudging overwhelm aerosol radiative effects in regional integrated climate models?, Atmos. Environ., 154, 42–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.01.040, 2017.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J. N.: ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6, 2023a.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2023b.
Hong, S.-Y., Noh, Y., and Dudhia, J.: A New Vertical Diffusion Package with an Explicit Treatment of Entrainment Processes, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 2318–2341, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3199.1, 2006.
Hsu, P.-C., Lee, J.-Y., and Ha, K.-J.: Influence of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on rainfall extremes in southern China, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 1403–1412, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4433, 2016.
Huang, R.-J., Zhang, Y., Bozzetti, C., Ho, K.-F., Cao, J.-J., Han, Y., Daellenbach, K. R., Slowik, J. G., Platt, S. M., Canonaco, F., Zotter, P., Wolf, R., Pieber, S. M., Bruns, E. A., Crippa, M., Ciarelli, G., Piazzalunga, A., Schwikowski, M., Abbaszade, G., Schnelle-Kreis, J., Zimmermann, R., An, Z., Szidat, S., Baltensperger, U., Haddad, I. E., and Prévôt, A. S. H.: High secondary aerosol contribution to particulate pollution during haze events in China, Nature, 514, 218–222, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13774, 2014.
Huang, X. and Ding, A.: Aerosol as a critical factor causing forecast biases of air temperature in global numerical weather prediction models, Sci. Bull., 66, 1917–1924, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.05.009, 2021.
Iacono, M. J., Delamere, J. S., Mlawer, E. J., Shephard, M. W., Clough, S. A., and Collins, W. D.: Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944, 2008.
Jia, H., Hasekamp, O., and Quaas, J.: Revisiting Aerosol–Cloud Interactions From Weekly Cycles, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL108266, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108266, 2024.
Koren, I., Kaufman, Y. J., Remer, L. A., and Martins, J. V.: Measurement of the Effect of Amazon Smoke on Inhibition of Cloud Formation, Science, 303, 1342–1345, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1089424, 2004.
Lee, K. H., Li, Z., Wong, M. S., Xin, J., Wang, Y., Hao, W.-M., and Zhao, F.: Aerosol single scattering albedo estimated across China from a combination of ground and satellite measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009077, 2007.
Lee, S. S., Guo, J., and Li, Z.: Delaying precipitation by air pollution over the Pearl River Delta: 2. Model simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 11739–11760, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024362, 2016.
Levy, R. C., Mattoo, S., Munchak, L. A., Remer, L. A., Sayer, A. M., Patadia, F., and Hsu, N. C.: The Collection 6 MODIS aerosol products over land and ocean, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 2989–3034, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2989-2013, 2013.
Li, M., Liu, H., Geng, G., Hong, C., Liu, F., Song, Y., Tong, D., Zheng, B., Cui, H., Man, H., Zhang, Q., and He, K.: Anthropogenic emission inventories in China: a review, Natl. Sci. Rev., 4, 834–866, https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwx150, 2017a.
Li, M., Zhang, Q., Kurokawa, J.-I., Woo, J.-H., He, K., Lu, Z., Ohara, T., Song, Y., Streets, D. G., Carmichael, G. R., Cheng, Y., Hong, C., Huo, H., Jiang, X., Kang, S., Liu, F., Su, H., and Zheng, B.: MIX: a mosaic Asian anthropogenic emission inventory under the international collaboration framework of the MICS-Asia and HTAP, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 935–963, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-935-2017, 2017b.
Li, Z., Niu, F., Fan, J., Liu, Y., Rosenfeld, D., and Ding, Y.: Long-term impacts of aerosols on the vertical development of clouds and precipitation, Nat. Geosci., 4, 888–894, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1313, 2011.
Li, Z., Lau, W. K.-M., Ramanathan, V., Wu, G., Ding, Y., Manoj, M. G., Liu, J., Qian, Y., Li, J., Zhou, T., Fan, J., Rosenfeld, D., Ming, Y., Wang, Y., Huang, J., Wang, B., Xu, X., Lee, S.-S., Cribb, M., Zhang, F., Yang, X., Zhao, C., Takemura, T., Wang, K., Xia, X., Yin, Y., Zhang, H., Guo, J., Zhai, P. M., Sugimoto, N., Babu, S. S., and Brasseur, G. P.: Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia, Rev. Geophy., 54, 866–929, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000500, 2016.
Li, Z., Wang, Y., Guo, J., Zhao, C., Cribb, M. C., Dong, X., Fan, J., Gong, D., Huang, J., Jiang, M., Jiang, Y., Lee, S.-S., Li, H., Li, J., Liu, J., Qian, Y., Rosenfeld, D., Shan, S., Sun, Y., Wang, H., Xin, J., Yan, X., Yang, X., Yang, X.-Q., Zhang, F., and Zheng, Y.: East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Clouds, Precipitation, and Climate (EAST-AIRCPC), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 13026–13054, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030758, 2019.
Liebmann, B. and Smith, C. A.: Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 1275–1277, 1996.
Lin, Z. and Chen, G.: The Role of Anthropogenic Forcings on the Regional Climate of Summertime Diurnal Variations over North China, J. Climate, 36, 4491–4509, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0498.1, 2023.
Liu, Z., Ming, Y., Zhao, C., Lau, N. C., Guo, J., Bollasina, M., and Yim, S. H. L.: Contribution of local and remote anthropogenic aerosols to a record-breaking torrential rainfall event in Guangdong Province, China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 223–241, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-223-2020, 2020.
Manoj, M. G., Devara, P. C. S., Safai, P. D., and Goswami, B. N.: Absorbing aerosols facilitate transition of Indian monsoon breaks to active spells, Clim. Dynam., 37, 2181–2198, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0971-3, 2011.
Morrison, H., Thompson, G., and Tatarskii, V.: Impact of Cloud Microphysics on the Development of Trailing Stratiform Precipitation in a Simulated Squall Line: Comparison of One- and Two-Moment Schemes, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2556.1, 2009.
Mudelsee, M.: Bootstrap confidence intervals, in: Climate Time Series Analysis, Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences Library, Vol. 51, Springer, Cham, Germany, 61–104, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-04450-7, 2014.
NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration): CERES and GEO-Enhanced TOA, Within-Atmosphere and Surface Fluxes, Clouds and Aerosols Daily Terra-Aqua-NOAA20 Edition4B, NASA Langley Atmospheric Science Data Center DAAC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/Terra-Aqua-NOAA20/CERES/SYN1degDay_L3.004B, 2017.
NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction), NWS (National Weather Service), NOAA, and DOC (U.S. Department of Commerce): NCEP FNL Operational Model Global Tropospheric Analyses, continuing from July 1999, National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research [data set], https://doi.org/10.5065/D6M043C6, 2000.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration): Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Daily Precipitation data, NOAA [data set], https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cpc.globalprecip.html, last access: 20 September 2025a.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration): NOAA Interpolated Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data, NOAA [data set], https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.olrcdr.interp.html, last access: 20 September 2025b.
Pahlow, M., Parlange, M. B., and Porté-Agel, F.: On Monin–Obukhov Similarity In The Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layer, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 99, 225–248, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1018909000098, 2001.
Platnick, S., Hubanks, P., Meyer, K., and King, M. D.: MODIS Atmosphere L3 Daily Product, NASA MODIS Adaptive Processing System, Goddard Space Flight Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD08_D3.061, 2015.
Platnick, S., Meyer, K. G., King, M. D., Wind, G., Amarasinghe, N., Marchant, B., Arnold, G. T., Zhang, Z., Hubanks, P. A., Holz, R. E., Yang, P., Ridgway, W. L., and Riedi, J.: The MODIS Cloud Optical and Microphysical Products: Collection 6 Updates and Examples from Terra and Aqua, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 55, 502–525, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2016.2610522, 2017.
Reid, J. S., Lagrosas, N. D., Jonsson, H. H., Reid, E. A., Sessions, W. R., Simpas, J. B., Uy, S. N., Boyd, T. J., Atwood, S. A., Blake, D. R., Campbell, J. R., Cliff, S. S., Holben, B. N., Holz, R. E., Hyer, E. J., Lynch, P., Meinardi, S., Posselt, D. J., Richardson, K. A., Salinas, S. V., Smirnov, A., Wang, Q., Yu, L., and Zhang, J.: Observations of the temporal variability in aerosol properties and their relationships to meteorology in the summer monsoonal South China Sea/East Sea: the scale-dependent role of monsoonal flows, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones, squall lines and cold pools, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1745–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1745-2015, 2015.
Rosenfeld, D., Lohmann, U., Raga, G. B., O'Dowd, C. D., Kulmala, M., Fuzzi, S., Reissell, A., and Andreae, M. O.: Flood or Drought: How Do Aerosols Affect Precipitation?, Science, 321, 1309–1313, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1160606, 2008.
Rutan, D. A., Kato, S., Doelling, D. R., Rose, F. G., Nguyen, L. T., Caldwell, T. E., and Loeb, N. G.: CERES Synoptic Product: Methodology and Validation of Surface Radiant Flux, J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 32, 1121–1143, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-14-00165.1, 2015.
Shao, T., Liu, Y., Wang, R., Zhu, Q., Tan, Z., and Luo, R.: Role of anthropogenic aerosols in affecting different-grade precipitation over eastern China: A case study, Sci. Total Environ., 807, 150886, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150886, 2022.
Singh, C., Ganguly, D., and Sharma, P.: Impact of West Asia, Tibetan Plateau and local dust emissions on intra-seasonal oscillations of the South Asian monsoon rainfall, Clim. Dynam., 53, 6569–6593, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04944-5, 2019.
Stier, P., van den Heever, S. C., Christensen, M. W., Gryspeerdt, E., Dagan, G., Saleeby, S. M., Bollasina, M., Donner, L., Emanuel, K., Ekman, A. M. L., Feingold, G., Field, P., Forster, P., Haywood, J., Kahn, R., Koren, I., Kummerow, C., L'Ecuyer, T., Lohmann, U., Ming, Y., Myhre, G., Quaas, J., Rosenfeld, D., Samset, B., Seifert, A., Stephens, G., and Tao, W.-K.: Multifaceted aerosol effects on precipitation, Nat. Geosci., 17, 719–732, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01482-6, 2024.
Su, Y., Zhao, C., Wang, Y., and Ma, Z.: Spatiotemporal Variations of Precipitation in China Using Surface Gauge Observations from 1961 to 2016, Atmosphere, 11, 303, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11030303, 2020.
Sun, Y. and Zhao, C.: Distinct impacts on precipitation by aerosol radiative effect over three different megacity regions of eastern China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16555–16574, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16555-2021, 2021.
Surendran, S., Ajay Anand, K. V., Ravindran, S., and Rajendran, K.: Exacerbation of Indian Summer Monsoon Breaks by the Indirect Effect of Regional Dust Aerosols, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL101106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101106, 2022.
Tao, W.-K., Chen, J.-P., Li, Z., Wang, C., and Zhang, C.: Impact of aerosols on convective clouds and precipitation, Rev. Geophy., 50, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011RG000369, 2012.
Tian, B., Waliser, D. E., Kahn, R. A., and Wong, S.: Modulation of Atlantic aerosols by the Madden-Julian Oscillation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015201, 2011.
Tsinghua University, CEADs (China Carbon Emission Accounts and Datasets) team, and CAEP (Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment): Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China and MIX-Asia dataset, MEIC Data Platform [data set], http://meicmodel.org.cn/, last access: 20 September 2025.
Twomey, S.: The Influence of Pollution on the Shortwave Albedo of Clouds, J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 1149–1152, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1977)034<1149:TIOPOT>2.0.CO;2, 1977.
UCAR (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research): WRF Source Codes and Graphics Software Downloads, UCAR [code], https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/download/get_source.html, last access: 20 September 2025a.
UCAR (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research): Fire Emission Factors and Emission Inventories, UCAR [data set], https://www.acom.ucar.edu/Data/fire/, last access: 20 September 2025b.
Vinoj, V., Rasch, P. J., Wang, H., Yoon, J.-H., Ma, P.-L., Landu, K., and Singh, B.: Short-term modulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by West Asian dust, Nat. Geosci., 7, 308–313, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2107, 2014.
Wang, L., Zhang, Y., Wang, K., Zheng, B., Zhang, Q., and Wei, W.: Application of Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) over northern China: Sensitivity study, comparative evaluation, and policy implications, Atmos. Environ., 124, 337–350, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.12.052, 2016.
Wang, Y., Wan, Q., Meng, W., Liao, F., Tan, H., and Zhang, R.: Long-term impacts of aerosols on precipitation and lightning over the Pearl River Delta megacity area in China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 12421–12436, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-12421-2011, 2011.
Wang, Z., Xue, L., Liu, J., Ding, K., Lou, S., Ding, A., Wang, J., and Huang, X.: Roles of Atmospheric Aerosols in Extreme Meteorological Events: a Systematic Review, Curr. Pollut. Rep., 8, 177–188, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40726-022-00216-9, 2022.
Wei, J., Mao, Q., Shan, Y., Jin, Q., Yang, Y., and Chen, H.: Spring biomass burning in Indochina enhances summer Yangtze River Valley rainfall through land–atmosphere interactions, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 6, 183, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00514-z, 2023.
Wei, S., Hsu, P.-C., and Xie, J.: Effects of Intraseasonal Oscillation on Timing and Subseasonal Predictability of Mei-yu Onset over the Yangtze River Basin, J. Climate, 37, 2277–2295, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0504.1, 2024.
Wiedinmyer, C., Akagi, S. K., Yokelson, R. J., Emmons, L. K., Al-Saadi, J. A., Orlando, J. J., and Soja, A. J.: The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN): a high resolution global model to estimate the emissions from open burning, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 625–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-625-2011, 2011.
Xiao, H., Liu, X., Li, H., Yue, Q., Feng, L., and Qu, J.: Extent of aerosol effect on the precipitation of squall lines: A case study in South China, Atmos. Res., 292, 106886, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106886, 2023a.
Xiao, Z., Yu, Y., Miao, Y., Zhu, S., He, H., Wang, Y., and Che, H.: Impact of Aerosols on Convective System Over the North China Plain: A Numerical Case Study in Autumn, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 128, e2022JD037465, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037465, 2023b.
Xie, J., Hsu, P.-C., Lee, J.-Y., Wang, L., and Turner, A. G.: Tropical intraseasonal oscillations as key driver and source of predictability for the 2022 Pakistan record-breaking rainfall event, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 7, 256, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00809-9, 2024.
Yanai, M., Esbensen, S., and Chu, J.-H.: Determination of Bulk Properties of Tropical Cloud Clusters from Large-Scale Heat and Moisture Budgets, J. Atmos. Sci., 30, 611–627, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1973)030<0611:DOBPOT>2.0.CO;2, 1973.
Yang, X. and Li, Z.: Increases in thunderstorm activity and relationships with air pollution in southeast China, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 1835–1844, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021224, 2014.
Yang, X., Li, Z., Liu, L., Zhou, L., Cribb, M., and Zhang, F.: Distinct weekly cycles of thunderstorms and a potential connection with aerosol type in China, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 8760–8768, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070375, 2016.
Yang, X., Zhou, L., Zhao, C., and Yang, J.: Impact of aerosols on tropical cyclone-induced precipitation over the mainland of China, Climatic Change, 148, 173–185, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2175-5, 2018.
Yu, Y. and Ginoux, P.: Assessing the contribution of the ENSO and MJO to Australian dust activity based on satellite- and ground-based observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8511–8530, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8511-2021, 2021.
Yun, Y., Zhang, D.-L., Gao, W., Yin, J., Zhao, C., Li, J., Guo, J., and Liu, H.: Spatiotemporal Variations of the Effects of Aerosols on Clouds and Precipitation in an Extreme-Rain-Producing MCS in South China, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 129, e2023JD040014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD040014, 2024.
Zaveri, R. A. and Peters, L. K.: A new lumped structure photochemical mechanism for large-scale applications, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 30387–30415, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900876, 1999.
Zaveri, R. A., Easter, R. C., Fast, J. D., and Peters, L. K.: Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008782, 2008.
Zhang, L., Fu, T.-M., Tian, H., Ma, Y., Chen, J.-P., Tsai, T.-C., Tsai, I.-C., Meng, Z., and Yang, X.: Anthropogenic Aerosols Significantly Reduce Mesoscale Convective System Occurrences and Precipitation Over Southern China in April, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086204, 2020.
Zhang, Y., Wen, X. Y., and Jang, C. J.: Simulating chemistry–aerosol–cloud–radiation–climate feedbacks over the continental U.S. using the online-coupled Weather Research Forecasting Model with chemistry (WRF/Chem), Atmos. Environ., 44, 3568–3582, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.05.056, 2010.
Zhang, Y., Gao, Y., Guo, L., and Zhang, M.: Numerical analysis of aerosol direct and indirect effects on an extreme rainfall event over Beijing in July 2016, Atmos. Res., 264, 105871, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105871, 2021.
Zhao, C., Yang, Y., Chi, Y., Sun, Y., Zhao, X., Letu, H., and Xia, Y.: Recent progress in cloud physics and associated radiative effects in China from 2016 to 2022, Atmos. Res., 293, 106899, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106899, 2023.
Zhao, C., Sun, Y., Yang, J., Li, J., Zhou, Y., Yang, Y., Fan, H., and Zhao, X.: Observational evidence and mechanisms of aerosol effects on precipitation, Sci. Bull., 69, 1569–1580, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2024.03.014, 2024.
Zhao, J., Ma, X., Wu, S., and Sha, T.: Dust emission and transport in Northwest China: WRF-Chem simulation and comparisons with multi-sensor observations, Atmos. Res., 241, 104978, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104978, 2020.
Zhou, S., Yang, J., Wang, W.-C., Zhao, C., Gong, D., and Shi, P.: An observational study of the effects of aerosols on diurnal variation of heavy rainfall and associated clouds over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5211–5229, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5211-2020, 2020.
Zhu, A., Xu, H., Deng, J., Ma, J., and Hua, S.: Instant and delayed effects of March biomass burning aerosols over the Indochina Peninsula , Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15425–15447, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15425-2022, 2022.
Zhu, H., Li, R., Yang, S., Zhao, C., Jiang, Z., and Huang, C.: The impacts of dust aerosol and convective available potential energy on precipitation vertical structure in southeastern China as seen from multisource observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2421–2437, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2421-2023, 2023.
Zhu, H., Yang, S., Zhao, H., Wang, Y., and Li, R.: Complex interplay of sulfate aerosols and meteorology conditions on precipitation and latent heat vertical structure, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 7, 191, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00743-w, 2024.
Short summary
Previous studies mainly examined aerosol effects on short-term rainfall variations. Here we show, using observations and model experiments, that aerosols also intensify rainfall variability on two- to four-week timescales over South China primarily through cloud-microphysical processes, while radiative effects play a secondary role, thereby amplifying prolonged heavy rainfall events.
Previous studies mainly examined aerosol effects on short-term rainfall variations. Here we...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint