Articles | Volume 25, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13053-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13053-2025
Research article
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21 Oct 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 21 Oct 2025

The role of the tropical carbon balance in determining the large atmospheric CO2 growth rate in 2023

Liang Feng, Paul I. Palmer, Luke Smallman, Jingfeng Xiao, Paolo Cristofanelli, Ove Hermansen, John Lee, Casper Labuschagne, Simonetta Montaguti, Steffen M. Noe, Stephen M. Platt, Xinrong Ren, Martin Steinbacher, and Irène Xueref-Remy

Data sets

OCO-2 Level 2 bias-corrected XCO2 and other select fields from the full-physics retrieval aggregated as daily files, Retrospective processing V10r OCO-2 Science Team/M. Gunson and A. Eldering https://doi.org/10.5067/E4E140XDMPO2

MODIS/Aqua Vegetation Indices Monthly L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V061 K. Didan https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MYD13A3.061

OCO-2 Level 2 bias-corrected XCO2 and other select fields from the full-physics retrieval aggregated as daily files, Retrospective processing V11.2r OCO-2/OCO-3 Science Team. Vivienne Payne and Abhishek Chatterjee https://doi.org/10.5067/70K2B2W8MNGY

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Executive editor
Feng et al. use a Bayesian inverse method to interpret global-scale atmospheric CO2 data from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory. They find that the global annual mean atmospheric CO2 growth rate in 2023 was one of the highest since records began in 1958. Their analysis suggest that ongoing environmental degradation of the Amazon is now playing a substantial role in increasing the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate. This findings emphasize how important continues measurements and regularly reporting of regional CO2 fluxes are to better understand changes in the CO2 cycle and be able deliver frequent actionable information for policy makers.
Short summary
The year 2023 saw unexpectedly large global atmospheric CO2 growth. Satellite data reveal a role for increased tropical emissions. Larger emissions over eastern Brazil can be explained by warmer temperatures, which has led to exceptional drought, while hydrological changes play more of a role in emission increases elsewhere in the tropics. Broadly, we find that this situation continues into 2024.
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