Articles | Volume 25, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11469-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11469-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Banked CFC-11 contributes to an unforeseen emission rise and sets back progress towards carbon neutrality
Heping Liu
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology, Maoming, Guangdong, China
Huabo Duan
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hubei Key Laboratory of Multi-media Pollution Cooperative Control in Yangtze Basin, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
Ning Zhang
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
Ruichang Mao
DTU Sustain, Department of Environmental & Resource Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
Travis Reed Miller
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maine, Orono, USA
Ming Xu
School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Institute for Carbon Neutrality, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Jiakuan Yang
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hubei Key Laboratory of Multi-media Pollution Cooperative Control in Yangtze Basin, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
Yin Ma
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology, Maoming, Guangdong, China
Cited articles
AFEAS (Alternative Fluorocarbons Environmental Acceptability Study): AFEAS CFC-11 Production and atmospheric release, https://unfccc.int/files/methods/other_methodological_issues/interactions_with_ozone_layer/application/pdf/cfc1100.pdf (last access: 8 April 2025).
Aktas, C. and Bilec, M.: Impact of lifetime on U.S. residential building LCA results, Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 17, 337–349, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-011-0363-x, 2012.
Ashford, P., Clodic, D., McCulloch, A., and Kuijpers, L.: Emission profiles from the foam and refrigeration sectors comparison with atmospheric concentrations, Int. J. Refrig., 27, 701–716, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrefrig.2004.08.003, 2004.
Ashford, P., Ambrose, A., Jeffs, M., Johnson, B., Kocchi, S., Lee, S., Nott, D., Vodianitskaia, P., Wu, J., Maine, T., Mutton, J., Veenendaal, B., Valenzuela, J., and Singh, L.: Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System: Issues Related to Hydrofluorocarbons and Perfluorocarbons, Chap. 7, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, ISBN 978-0-521-86336-0, 2005.
China MEE (Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People's Republic of China): Transcript of the routine press conference held by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in May 2019, https://www.mee.gov.cn/xxgk2018/xxgk/xxgk15/202006/t20200602_782341.html (last access: 25 March 2025), 2019 (in Chinese).
Chipperfield, M. P., Hossaini, R., Montzka, S. A., Reimann, S., Sherry, D., and Tegtmeier, S.: Renewed and emerging concerns over the production and emission of ozone-depleting substances, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 1, 251–263, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0048-8, 2020.
Derwent, R. G., Simmonds, P. G., O'Doherty, S., and Ryall, D. B.: The impact of the Montreal Protocol on halocarbon concentration in Northern Hemisphere baseline and European air masses at Mace Head, Ireland over a ten year period from 1987–1996, Atmos. Environ., 32, 3689–3702, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(98)00092-2, 1998.
Duan, H., Miller, T.R., Liu, G., Zeng, X., Yu, K., Huang, Q., Zuo, J., Qin, Y., and Li, J.: Chilling prospect: climate change effects of mismanaged refrigerants in China, Environ. Sci. Technol., 52, 6350–6356, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b05987, 2018.
Dunse, B. L., Derek, N., Fraser, P. J., Krummel, P. B., and Steele, L. P.: Australian and Global Emissions of Ozone Depleting Substances: Report prepared for the Australian Government Department of the Environment and Energy, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Climate Science Centre, Aspendale, Australia, iv, 37 pp., https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/protection/ozone/publications/australian-global-emissions-ods (last access: 5 April 2024), 2019.
European Union (EU): Directive 2012/19/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 4 July 2012 on waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE), https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:02012L0019-20180704 (last access: 25 April 2025), 2012.
Fang, X., Ravishankara, A. R., Velders, G. J., Molina, M. J., Su, S., Zhang, J., Hu, J., and Prinn, R. G.: Changes in emissions of ozone-depleting substances from China due to implementation of the Montreal Protocol, Environ. Sci. Technol., 52, 11359–11366, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b01280, 2018.
Flerlage, H., Velders, G. J., and de Boer, J.: A review of bottom-up and top-down emission estimates of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in different parts of the world, Chemosphere, 283, 131208, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2021.131208, 2021.
Fraser, P. J., Dunse, B. L., Krummel, P. B., Steele, L. P., Derek, N., Mitrevski, B., Allison, C. E., Loh, Z., Manning, A. J., Redington, A., and Rigby, M.: Australian chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions: 1960–2017, Environ. Chem., 17, 525–544, https://doi.org/10.1071/EN19322, 2020.
Gómez-Sanabria, A., Kiesewetter, G., Klimont, Z., Schoepp, W., and Haberl, H.: Potential for future reductions of global GHG and air pollutants from circular waste management systems, Nat. Commun., 13, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27624-7, 2022.
Hammitt, J. K., Wolf, K. A., Camm, F., Mooz, W. E., Quinn, T. H., and Bamezai, A.: Product uses and market trends for potential ozone-depleting substances, 1985–2000, in: Rand Corporation series reports, prepared for the U.S. EPA, https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R3386.html (last access: 5 April 2024), 1986.
Hu, L., Montzka, S. A., Lehman, S. J., Godwin, D. S., Miller, B. R., Andrews, A. E., Thoning, K., Miller, J. B., Sweeney, C., Siso, C., Elkins, J. W., Hall, B. D., Mondeel, D. J., Nance, D., Nehrkorn, T., Mountain, M., Fischer, M. L., Biraud, S. C., Chen, H., and Tans, P. P.: Considerable contribution of the Montreal Protocol to declining greenhouse gas emissions from the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074388, 2017.
IPCC: IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, vol. 3, Industrial Process and Product Use, https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/vol3.html (last access: 25 April 2025), 2006.
IPCC: 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, vol. 3, Industrial Process and Product Use, https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2019rf/vol3.html (last access: 25 April 2025), 2019.
Japan METI (Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry): Documents pertaining to methods for estimating discharge, https://www.meti.go.jp/policy/chemical_management/law/prtr/6.html (last access: 25 March 2025), 2024 (in Japanese).
Lickley, M., Solomon. S., Fletcher, S., Velders, G., Daniel, J., Rigby, M., Montzka, S.A., Kuijpers, L., Stone, K.: Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate, Nat. Commun., 11, 1380, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15162-7, 2020.
Lickley, M., Fletcher, S., Rigby, M., and Solomon, S.: Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions, Nat. Commun., 12, 2920, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23229-2, 2021.
Lickley, M. J., Daniel, J. S., Fleming, E. L., Reimann, S., and Solomon, S.: Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11125–11136, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11125-2022, 2022.
Liu, H., Yano, J., Kajiwara, N., and Sakai, S.: Dynamic stock, flow, and emissions of brominated flame retardants for vehicles in Japan, J. Clean. Prod., 232, 910–924, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.370, 2019.
Liu, H., Duan, H., Zhang, N., Ma, Y., Liu, G., Miller, T. R., Mao, R., Xu, M., Li, J., and Yang, J.: Rethinking time-lagged emissions and abatement potential of fluorocarbons in the post-Kigali Amendment era, Nat. Commun., 15, 6687, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51113-2, 2024.
Martínez, J. H., Romero, S., Ramasco, J. J., and Estrada, E.: The world-wide waste web, Nat Commun., 13, 1615, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28810-x, 2022.
McCulloch, A. and Midgley, M.: Estimated historic emissions of fluorocarbons from the European Union, Atmos. Environ., 32, 1571–1580, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(97)00393-2, 1998.
McCulloch, A., Ashford, P., and Midgley, P. M.: Historic emissions of fluorotrichloromethane (CFC-11) based on a market survey, Atmos. Environ., 35, 4387–4397, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(01)00249-7, 2001.
Montzka, S. A., Dutton, G. S., Yu, P., Ray, E., Portmann, R. W., Daniel, J. S., Kuijpers, L., Hall, B. D., Mondeel, D., Siso, C., Nance, J. D., Rigby, M., Manning, A. J., Hu, L., Moore, F., Miller, B. R., and Elkins, W.: An unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of ozone-depleting CFC-11, Nature, 557, 413–417, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0106-2, 2018.
Montzka, S. A., Dutton, G. S., Portmann, R. W., Chipperfield, M. P., Davis, S., Feng, W., Manning, A. J., Ray, E., Rigby, M., Hall, B. D., Siso, C., Nance, J. D., Krummel, P. B., Mühle, J., Young, D., O'Doherty, S., Salameh, P. K., Harth, C. M., Prinn, R. G., Weiss, R. F., Elkins, W., Terrinoni, H. W., and Theodoridi, C.: A decline in global CFC-11 emissions during 2018–2019, Nature, 590, 428–432, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03260-5, 2021.
Park, S., Western, L. M., Saito, T., Redington, A. L., Henne, S., Fang, X., Prinn, R. G., Manning, A. J., Montzka, S. A., Fraser, P. J., Ganesan, A. L., Harth, C. M., Kim, J., Krummel, P. B., Liang, Q., Mühle, J., O'Doherty, S., Park, H., Park, M., Reimann, S., Salameh, P. K., Weiss, R. F., and Rigby, M.: A decline in emissions of CFC-11 and related chemicals from eastern China, Nature, 590, 433–437, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03277-w, 2021.
Pyle, J. A., Keeble, J., Abraham, N. L., Chipperfield, M. P., and Griffiths, P. T.: Integrated ozone depletion as a metric for ozone recovery, Nature, 608, 719–723, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04968-8, 2022.
Redington, A. L., Manning, A. J., Henne, S., Graziosi, F., Western, L. M., Arduini, J., Ganesan, A. L., Harth, C. M., Maione, M., Mühle, J., O'Doherty, S., Pitt, J., Reimann, S., Rigby, M., Salameh, P. K., Simmonds, P. G., Spain, T. G., Stanley, K., Vollmer, M. K., Weiss, R. F., and Young, D.: Western European emission estimates of CFC-11, CFC-12 and CCl4 derived from atmospheric measurements from 2008 to 2021, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7383–7398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7383-2023, 2023.
Rigby, M., Park, S., Saito, T., Western, L. M., Redington, A. L., Fang, X., Henne, S., Manning, A. J., Prinn, R. G., Dutton, G. S., Fraser, P. J., Ganesan, A. L., Hall, B. D., Harth, C. M., Kim, J., Kim, K. R., Krummel, P. B., Lee, T., Li, S., Liang, Q., Lunt, M. F., Montzka, S. A., Mühle, J., O'Doherty, S., Park, M., Reimann, S., Salameh, P. K., Simmonds, P., Tunnicliffe, R. L., Weiss, R. F., Yokouchi, Y., and Young, D.: Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations, Nature, 569, 546–550, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1193-4, 2019.
SKM ENVIROS: Further Assessment of Policy Options for the Management and Destruction of Banks of ODS and F-Gases in the EU: Prepared for the European Commission, Final report, https://climate.ec.europa.eu/document/download/89673572-7c70-4ed3-a9aa-de31f3e58fb8_en?filename=ods_ f-gas_destruction_report_2012_en.pdf (last access: 10 March 2025), 2012.
TEAP (Technology and Economic Assessment Panel): Volume 1: decision XXX/3 TEAP Task Force Report on Unexpected Emission of Trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), Final Report, https://ozone.unep.org/system/files/documents/TEAP-TF-DecXXX-3-unexpected_CFC11_ emissions-september2019.pdf (last access: 14 March 2025), 2019.
TEAP (Technology and Economic Assessment Panel): Volume 3: decision XXXI/3 TEAP Task Force Report on Unexpected Emissions of Trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), https://ozone.unep.org/system/files/documents/Final_TEAP-DecisionXXXI-3-TF-Unexpected-Emissions-of-CFC-11-may2021.pdf (last access: 14 March 2025), 2021.
Tsutsumi, H and Komatsu, Y.: Transition of the lifetime of wooden houses since 1980, J. Archit. Plann., 580, 169–174, 2004 (in Japanese).
UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme): Report of the Rigid and Flexible Foams Technical Options Committee (FTOC) 2002 assessment, https://ozone.unep.org/sites/default/files/2019-05/FTOC-2002-Assessment-Report.pdf (last access: 15 March 2025), 2002.
UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme): Technology and Economic Assessment Panel (TEAP): Task Force on Emissions Discrepancies Report, Nairobi, Kenya, https://ozone.unep.org/sites/default/files/2019-05/TEAP-Discrepancy-report.pdf (last access: 15 March 2025), 2006.
U.S. EPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency): Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2022, https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks-1990-2022 (last access: 8 March 2025), 2024.
Wan, D., Xu, J., Zhang, J., Tong, X., and Hu, J.: Historical and projected emissions of major halocarbons in China, Atmos. Environ., 43, 5822–5829, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.07.052, 2009.
WMO (World Meteorological Organization): Report on the Unexpected Emissions of CFC-11, WMO-No. 1268, https://ozone.unep.org/system/files/documents/SAP-2021-report-on-the-unexpected-emissions-of-CFC-11-1268_en.pdf (last access: 2 March 2025), 2021.
WMO (World Meteorological Organization): Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2022, Ozone Research and Monitoring – GAW Report No. 278, https://ozone.unep.org/system/files/documents/Scientific-Assessment-of-Ozone-Depletion-2022.pdf (last access: 5 March 2025), 2023.
Yi, L., Wu, J., An, M., Xu, W., Fang, X., Yao, B., Li, Y., Gao, D., Zhao, X., and Hu, J.: The atmospheric concentrations and emissions of major halocarbons in China during 2009–2019, Environ. Pollut., 284, 117190, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2021.117190, 2021.
Young, P. J., Harper, A. B., Huntingford, C., Paul, N. D., Morgenstern, O., Newman, P. A., Oman, L. D., Madronich, S., and Garcia, R. R.: The Montreal Protocol protects the terrestrial carbon sink, Nature, 596, 384–388, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03737-3, 2021.
Short summary
This study re-evaluates emissions of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) by employing a bottom-up dynamic material flow analysis model spanning from 1950 to 2100, at both global and regional scales. By investigating variations in the lifespan of end-use products, end-of-life handling practices, and emission factors, we partially reconcile the discrepancies between bottom-up inventories and top-down observational data.
This study re-evaluates emissions of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) by employing a bottom-up...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint