Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming

Li, Donghuan; Zhou, Tianjun; Qi, Youcun; Zou, Liwei; Li, Chao; Zhang, Wenxia; Chen, Xiaolong

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 12

Research article

|

27 Jun 2024

Research article |

| 27 Jun 2024

Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming

Donghuan Li, Tianjun Zhou, Youcun Qi, Liwei Zou, Chao Li, Wenxia Zhang, and Xiaolong Chen

Data sets

The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: enablingthe exploration of climate system variability (https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/mpi-ge/) N. Maher et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001639

The community earth system model (CESM) large ensemble project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability (https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/dataset/ucar.cgd.ccsm4.cesmLE.html) J. E. Kay et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1

Short summary

Two sets of climate model simulations are used to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic factors of future change in cold extremes in East Asia. Dynamic factor accounted for over 80 % of cold-month temperature anomalies in past 50 years. The intensity of cold extreme is expected to decrease by 5 ℃, with thermodynamic factor contributing ~ 75 % by the end of the 21st century. Changes in dynamic factor are driven by an upward trend of positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern.