Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
ACP
Articles | Volume 24, issue 10
Articles | Volume 24, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6251-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6251-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 24, issue 10
Technical note
 | 
28 May 2024
Technical note |  | 28 May 2024

Technical note: Exploring parameter and meteorological uncertainty via emulation in volcanic ash atmospheric dispersion modelling

James M. Salter, Helen N. Webster, and Cameron Saint

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Latest update: 20 Nov 2024
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Short summary
Models are used to make forecasts of volcanic ash dispersion during eruptions. These models have unknown inputs relating to the eruption itself, physical processes, and meteorological conditions. We use statistical models to predict the output of the expensive physical model and show we can account for the effects of the different inputs. We compare the model to real-world observations and show that accounting for all sources of uncertainty may lead to different conclusions about the inputs.
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