Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is often discussed in the
media and in policy circles as a possible action to limit future
increase in global temperatures. Indeed it has been demonstrated in
model simulations that in principle injection could be 'controlled',
using model information, to meet specific targets on the temperature
increase and its spatial distribution. This paper shows
that the simulated climate response to SAI is strongly model-dependent,
reflecting fundamental uncertainties in model representation of key
processes. In particular this means that the SAI determined by the
control algorithms as those required to achieve temperature targets
different significantly from one model to another. Specific mechanisms,
in particular the difference in rapid response in clouds and in
precipitation to an imposed radiative perturbation and the ensuing ocean
circulation response, are identified that contribute to the strong
differences in model response to SAI. There is also a strong sensitivity
to the pre-existing sulphate distribution which will be determined by
future anthropogenic emissions. The authors note that these inter-model
differences are unlikely to be resolved quickly and that controlled SAI,
to achieve specific temperature goals and with well-quantified risks of
unexpected consequences, is likely to remain out of reach for many years.
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is often discussed in the
media and in policy circles as...
The continued high levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increase the likelihood that key climate warming thresholds will be exceeded in the coming decades. Here we examine a recently proposed geoengineering approach using two recently produced climate model experiments. We find the associated latitudinal distribution of aerosol mass to exhibit substantial uncertainty, suggesting the need for significant flexibility in the location and amount of aerosol delivery, if implemented.
The continued high levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increase the likelihood that...