Articles | Volume 23, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15305-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Climate intervention using marine cloud brightening (MCB) compared with stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) in the UKESM1 climate model
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- Final revised paper (published on 14 Dec 2023)
- Preprint (discussion started on 17 Jul 2023)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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- RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1611', Michael Diamond, 07 Aug 2023
- RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1611', Anonymous Referee #2, 24 Aug 2023
- RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1611', Anonymous Referee #3, 25 Aug 2023
- AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1611', J.M. Haywood, 06 Oct 2023
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by J.M. Haywood on behalf of the Authors (06 Oct 2023)
Author's response
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ED: Publish as is (14 Oct 2023) by Yuan Wang
AR by J.M. Haywood on behalf of the Authors (01 Nov 2023)
Manuscript
In this manuscript, the authors devise a new “G6MCB” experiment that parallels the GeoMIP-endorsed G6sulfur experiment but uses sea salt emissions in four regions of the Pacific rather than sulfur emissions in the tropical stratosphere to achieve a reduction in global mean surface temperatures to that of the SSP2-4.5 scenario from a background of SSP5-8.5. For lower levels of spraying with accumulation-mode particles, cloud brightening and the direct effect both produce a substantial cooling effect; at higher levels, cloud forcing saturates and even reverses with all of the cooling coming from the direct effect. The La Niña-like pattern induced by G6MCB produces marked differences in climate response from the warming and SAI scenarios to which it is compared. Perhaps the most striking result is that sea levels over the vulnerable western Pacific basin rise more in G6MCB than in ssp585 due to the La Niña-like dynamic adjustment to eastern Pacific cooling. The paper is well-written and executed and makes an interesting and important contribution to the literature surrounding MCB and SRM more broadly — it merits prompt publication following minor revisions (see specific points below). -Michael Diamond
General point: At low-ish forcings (~1 W m-2), MCB dominates over MSB. The MSB findings may well be a result of pushing the system further than MCB can go. One conclusion may be that MCB is more feasible for a smaller scenario (e.g., sustaining historical peak aerosol cooling) but is infeasible for a more ambitious scenario (multiple degrees of cooling). It may be worth considering this point more explicitly in the discussion.
Specific points:
1. Why is the experiment named “G6MCB” instead of “G6sea-salt”, which would be more parallel with the G4 naming system? I appreciate that this experiment is not officially within the GeoMIP umbrella, but it still seems like highlighting the sea-salt aspect may be more appropriate, especially as MSB dominates forcing by the end of the century.
2. Lines 16-18: This is true at high emissions rates; at lower emissions rates and with smaller particles the cloud effect dominated. This is probably worth clarifying, as the “lower” emission rates still produce forcings that may be policy relevant (e.g., targeting 1 W m-2 of cooling to maintain peak 20th century aerosol forcing).
3. Section 3.1: It may be useful to mention or highlight the likely dependence on activation scheme here. This issue is dealt with nicely in the discussion, so perhaps you could just add an allusion to further information about the activation scheme question that will come later.
4. Figure 3 caption: I don’t understand the caveat about points that don’t meet G6 standards. Could you clarify here or in the text?
5. Figure 4: Could you also plot the net forcing difference and perhaps the zero line? It’s easy enough to eyeball but still could be useful for readers.
6. Line 274: I agree with this point and it’s important to make, but perhaps it should more specifically refer to generalizability when comparing MCB/MSB strategies with substantially different spatial patterns of forcing. The current (on-going) intercomparison seems to suggest that results are more generalizable when using a standardized protocol.
7. La Niña section: A useful figure would be a comparison of G6MCB-SSP585 and the La Niña signal in UKESM1 from interannual variability (e.g., regression on detrended SOI or using some detrended Niño3.4-like index) in terms of variables like temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and perhaps circulation anomalies like surface winds.
8. Figure 15a: Put definition of the thin lines (two sigma?) in the figure caption.
9. Lines 371-372: But isn’t mean warming believed to be El Niño-like?
10. Line 377: Is “locking into La Niña” the right description? I’m interpreting the results here as showing a strong mean-state climate change pattern resembling La Niña, but in terms of interannual variability, do the frequency or intensity of El Niño and La Niña events change after adjusting for the changing mean state temperature/pressure?
11. Lines 399-401: This makes sense, but given the inertia in the climate system, I’m not convinced it’s correct. See, e.g., the results in MacMartin et al. (2022) that find a 10-year phase-out doesn’t really differ from sudden termination in CESM2-WACCM.
MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Kravitz, B., Richter, J. H., Felgenhauer, T., Lee, W. R., Morrow, D. R., Parson, E. A., and Sugiyama, M.: Scenarios for modeling solar radiation modification, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 119, e2202230119, 10.1073/pnas.2202230119, 2022.
12. Data availability: I believe that the G6MCB data, minimally that needed to recreate the figures in the paper, need to be posted publicly to a data repository before publication, or “a detailed explanation of why” it is not available must be provided, to be compliant with the stated ACP data policy (https://www.atmospheric-chemistry-and-physics.net/policies/data_policy.html).