Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change

Friedel, Marina; Chiodo, Gabriel; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Keeble, James; Peter, Thomas; Seeber, Svenja; Stenke, Andrea; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Rozanov, Eugene; Plummer, David; Jöckel, Patrick; Zeng, Guang; Morgenstern, Olaf; Josse, Béatrice

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023

Articles | Volume 23, issue 17

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 23, issue 17

Research article

|

14 Sep 2023

Research article |

| 14 Sep 2023

Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change

Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, James Keeble, Thomas Peter, Svenja Seeber, Andrea Stenke, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Eugene Rozanov, David Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, and Béatrice Josse

Data sets

The influence of future changes in springtime Arctic ozone on stratospheric and surface climate M. Friedel, G. Chiodo, and S. Seeber https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000627740

Timeslice simulations for the year 2075 simulated with SOCOL-MPIOM and WACCM4 M. Friedel, G. Chiodo, and S. Seeber https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000627743

Model results for ''Robust effect of springtime Arctic ozone depletion on surface climate'' M. Friedel and G. Chiodo https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000527155

Model results for ''Robust effect of springtime Arctic ozone depletion on surface climate'', part 2 M. Friedel and G. Chiodo https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000546039

MERRA-2 tavg1_2d_slv_Nx: 2d,1-Hourly,Time-Averaged,Single-Level,Assimilation,Single-Level Diagnostics V5.12.4 (M2T1NXSLV) GMAO https://doi.org/10.5067/VJAFPLI1CSIV

The Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) database: a long-term database for climate studies (https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/swoosh/) S. M. Davis, K. H. Rosenlof, B. Hassler, D. F. Hurst, W. G. Read, H. Vömel, H. Selkirk, M. Fujiwara, and R. Damadeo https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-461-2016

The IGAC/SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Phase-1 (CCMI-1) model data output CEDA Archive http://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/wcrp-ccmi/data/CCMI-1/output/

ccmi-2022 CEDA Archive https://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ccmi/data/post-cmip6/ccmi-2022

Short summary

Previously, it has been suggested that springtime Arctic ozone depletion might worsen in the coming decades due to climate change, which might counteract the effect of reduced ozone-depleting substances. Here, we show with different chemistry–climate models that springtime Arctic ozone depletion will likely decrease in the future. Further, we explain why models show a large spread in the projected development of Arctic ozone depletion and use the model spread to constrain future projections.