Articles | Volume 22, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021
Roger Teoh
Centre for Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Ulrich Schumann
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und
Raumfahrt, 82234 Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Edward Gryspeerdt
Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College
London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Marc Shapiro
Orca Sciences, Kirkland, WA 98033, USA
Jarlath Molloy
NATS, Whiteley, Fareham, Hampshire PO15 7FL, UK
George Koudis
NATS, Whiteley, Fareham, Hampshire PO15 7FL, UK
Christiane Voigt
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und
Raumfahrt, 82234 Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, University Mainz, 55099 Mainz,
Germany
Marc E. J. Stettler
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre for Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
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- The ice supersaturation biases limiting contrail modelling are structured around extratropical depressions O. Driver et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16411-2025
- Modeling and verifying ice supersaturated regions in the ARPEGE model for persistent contrail forecast S. Arriolabengoa et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18051-2025
- Feasibility test of per-flight contrail avoidance in commercial aviation A. Sonabend-W et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44172-024-00329-7
- Most long-lived contrails form within cirrus clouds with uncertain climate impact A. Petzold et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65532-2
- The Intersection of Civil Aviation and the Tourism Industry: A Bibliometric Analysis M. Kınıklı & Ç. Kızılgeçi https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1772203
- Ground-based contrail observations: comparisons with reanalysis weather data and contrail model simulations J. Low et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-37-2025
- Substantial aircraft contrail formation at low soot emission levels C. Voigt et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10286-0
- Reducing emissions and fuel consumption in supersonic aviation with ammonia hybrid engines M. Khan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2025.150540
- Trade-offs in aviation impacts on climate favour non-CO2 mitigation M. Prather et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09198-2
- Rebuttal to Correspondence on “Sustainable Aviation Fuel Deployment Strategies in Europe: Supply Chain Implications and Climate Benefits” E. Woeldgen et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c11376
- On the Weather Impact of Contrails: New Insights from Coupled ICON–CoCiP Simulations U. Schumann & A. Seifert https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18571-2025
- Opinion: Eliminating aircraft soot emissions U. Trivanovic & S. Pratsinis https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-2-207-2024
- Variability of ice supersaturated regions at flight altitudes: evaluation of ERA5 reanalysis using IAGOS in situ measurements K. Hildebrandt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6449-2026
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- Thermodynamic evaluation of contrail formation from a conventional jet fuel and an ammonia-based aviation propulsion system T. Cannon et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44172-024-00312-2
- Quantification of the radiative forcing of contrails embedded in cirrus clouds T. Seelig et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66231-8
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Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 09 Jun 2026
Short summary
Aircraft condensation trails (contrails) contribute to over half of the climate forcing attributable to aviation. This study uses historical air traffic and weather data to simulate contrails in the North Atlantic over 5 years, from 2016 to 2021. We found large intra- and inter-year variability in contrail radiative forcing and observed a 66 % reduction due to COVID-19. Most warming contrails predominantly result from night-time flights in winter.
Aircraft condensation trails (contrails) contribute to over half of the climate forcing...
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Final-revised paper
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