Articles | Volume 22, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Aug 2022
Research article |
| 29 Aug 2022
| 29 Aug 2022
Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021
Roger Teoh
Centre for Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Ulrich Schumann
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und
Raumfahrt, 82234 Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Edward Gryspeerdt
Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College
London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Marc Shapiro
Orca Sciences, Kirkland, WA 98033, USA
Jarlath Molloy
NATS, Whiteley, Fareham, Hampshire PO15 7FL, UK
George Koudis
NATS, Whiteley, Fareham, Hampshire PO15 7FL, UK
Christiane Voigt
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und
Raumfahrt, 82234 Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, University Mainz, 55099 Mainz,
Germany
Marc E. J. Stettler
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre for Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
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- GCxGC-Based iso-Alkane Subgrouping for Enhanced Compositional Analysis of Sustainable Aviation Fuels H. Lüdtke et al. 10.1021/acs.energyfuels.4c05573
- Global aviation contrail climate effects from 2019 to 2021 R. Teoh et al. 10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024
- Contrail Polarization Scattering Characteristics Simulation Based on Jet Flow Field G. Sui et al. 10.1109/LPT.2023.3330896
- Measurement report: In-flight and ground-based measurements of nitrogen oxide emissions from latest-generation jet engines and 100 % sustainable aviation fuel T. Harlass et al. 10.5194/acp-24-11807-2024
- Segregated supply of Sustainable Aviation Fuel to reduce contrail energy forcing – demonstration and potentials G. Quante et al. 10.1016/j.jatrs.2024.100049
- High-resolution thermal infrared contrails images identification and classification method based on SDGSAT-1 J. Yu et al. 10.1016/j.jag.2024.103980
- Climate-optimized flight planning can effectively reduce the environmental footprint of aviation in Europe at low operational costs A. Simorgh & M. Soler 10.1038/s43247-025-02031-8
- National climate change mitigation efforts for aviation: Lessons from post-Covid state action plans A. Pachai & L. Besco 10.1080/15568318.2024.2435558
- Factors limiting contrail detection in satellite imagery O. Driver et al. 10.5194/amt-18-1115-2025
- Differences in microphysical properties of cirrus at high and mid-latitudes E. De La Torre Castro et al. 10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023
- Addressing Global Warming: Challenges and Solutions in the Aviation Industry Z. Zhou 10.54097/3q2tf172
- Uncertainties in mitigating aviation non-CO2 emissions for climate and air quality using hydrocarbon fuels D. Lee et al. 10.1039/D3EA00091E
- The effect of uncertainty in humidity and model parameters on the prediction of contrail energy forcing J. Platt et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6ee5
- Upper-tropospheric slightly ice-subsaturated regions: frequency of occurrence and statistical evidence for the appearance of contrail cirrus Y. Li et al. 10.5194/acp-23-2251-2023
- Towards a more reliable forecast of ice supersaturation: concept of a one-moment ice-cloud scheme that avoids saturation adjustment D. Sperber & K. Gierens 10.5194/acp-23-15609-2023
- Machine learning for improvement of upper-tropospheric relative humidity in ERA5 weather model data Z. Wang et al. 10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025
- Contrail Detection on GOES-16 ABI With the OpenContrails Dataset J. Ng et al. 10.1109/TGRS.2023.3345226
- The importance of an informed choice of CO2-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance A. Borella et al. 10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024
- Comparison of Actual and Time-Optimized Flight Trajectories in the Context of the In-Service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) Programme O. Boucher et al. 10.3390/aerospace10090744
- Calibration of Upper Air Water Vapour Profiles Using the IPRAL Raman Lidar and ERA5 Model Results and Comparison to GRUAN Radiosonde Observations D. Alraddawi et al. 10.3390/atmos16030351
- The high-resolution Global Aviation emissions Inventory based on ADS-B (GAIA) for 2019–2021 R. Teoh et al. 10.5194/acp-24-725-2024
- Real-Time Contrail Monitoring and Mitigation Using CubeSat Constellations N. Pushparaj et al. 10.3390/atmos15121543
- A scalable system to measure contrail formation on a per-flight basis S. Geraedts et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ad11ab
- Powering aircraft with 100 % sustainable aviation fuel reduces ice crystals in contrails R. Märkl et al. 10.5194/acp-24-3813-2024
- Contrail minimization through altitude diversions: A feasibility study leveraging global data E. Roosenbrand et al. 10.1016/j.trip.2023.100953
- Regional and seasonal impact of hydrogen propulsion systems on potential contrail cirrus cover S. Kaufmann et al. 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100298
- Linear Contrails Detection, Tracking and Matching with Aircraft Using Geostationary Satellite and Air Traffic Data R. Chevallier et al. 10.3390/aerospace10070578
- Emission location affects impacts on atmosphere and climate from alternative fuels for Norwegian domestic aviation J. Klenner et al. 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100301
- Observations of microphysical properties and radiative effects of a contrail cirrus outbreak over the North Atlantic Z. Wang et al. 10.5194/acp-23-1941-2023
- Correction of ERA5 temperature and relative humidity biases by bivariate quantile mapping for contrail formation analysis K. Wolf et al. 10.5194/acp-25-157-2025
- Jet aircraft lubrication oil droplets as contrail ice-forming particles J. Ponsonby et al. 10.5194/acp-24-2045-2024
- Feasibility of contrail avoidance in a commercial flight planning system: an operational analysis A. Martin Frias et al. 10.1088/2634-4505/ad310c
- Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: the CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0 Z. Engberg et al. 10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025
- The Application of a Convolutional Neural Network for the Detection of Contrails in Satellite Imagery J. Hoffman et al. 10.3390/rs15112854
- Sooting tendencies: Combustion science for designing sustainable fuels with improved properties L. Pfefferle et al. 10.1016/j.proci.2024.105750
- Measurements of particle emissions of an A350-941 burning 100 % sustainable aviation fuels in cruise R. Dischl et al. 10.5194/acp-24-11255-2024
- How well can persistent contrails be predicted? An update S. Hofer et al. 10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024
- Characterizing the Full Climate Impact of Individual Real-World Flights Using a Linear Temperature Response Model M. Awde & C. Stuart 10.3390/aerospace12020121
- Feasibility test of per-flight contrail avoidance in commercial aviation A. Sonabend-W et al. 10.1038/s44172-024-00329-7
- Ground-based contrail observations: comparisons with reanalysis weather data and contrail model simulations J. Low et al. 10.5194/amt-18-37-2025
- Opinion: Eliminating aircraft soot emissions U. Trivanovic & S. Pratsinis 10.5194/ar-2-207-2024
- Investigating an indirect aviation effect on mid-latitude cirrus clouds – linking lidar-derived optical properties to in situ measurements S. Groß et al. 10.5194/acp-23-8369-2023
- Thermodynamic evaluation of contrail formation from a conventional jet fuel and an ammonia-based aviation propulsion system T. Cannon et al. 10.1038/s44172-024-00312-2
- Operational differences lead to longer lifetimes of satellite detectable contrails from more fuel efficient aircraft E. Gryspeerdt et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5b78
- Targeted Use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel to Maximize Climate Benefits R. Teoh et al. 10.1021/acs.est.2c05781
- Liquid Hydrogen: A Mirage or Potent Solution for Aviation’s Climate Woes? T. Miller et al. 10.1021/acs.est.2c06286
- The Ethics of Unintentional Geoengineering A. Lee & M. Shapiro 10.1080/21550085.2023.2217498
- Design Principles for a Contrail-Minimizing Trial in the North Atlantic J. Molloy et al. 10.3390/aerospace9070375
45 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Sustainable aviation in the context of the Paris Agreement: A review of prospective scenarios and their technological mitigation levers S. Delbecq et al. 10.1016/j.paerosci.2023.100920
- GCxGC-Based iso-Alkane Subgrouping for Enhanced Compositional Analysis of Sustainable Aviation Fuels H. Lüdtke et al. 10.1021/acs.energyfuels.4c05573
- Global aviation contrail climate effects from 2019 to 2021 R. Teoh et al. 10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024
- Contrail Polarization Scattering Characteristics Simulation Based on Jet Flow Field G. Sui et al. 10.1109/LPT.2023.3330896
- Measurement report: In-flight and ground-based measurements of nitrogen oxide emissions from latest-generation jet engines and 100 % sustainable aviation fuel T. Harlass et al. 10.5194/acp-24-11807-2024
- Segregated supply of Sustainable Aviation Fuel to reduce contrail energy forcing – demonstration and potentials G. Quante et al. 10.1016/j.jatrs.2024.100049
- High-resolution thermal infrared contrails images identification and classification method based on SDGSAT-1 J. Yu et al. 10.1016/j.jag.2024.103980
- Climate-optimized flight planning can effectively reduce the environmental footprint of aviation in Europe at low operational costs A. Simorgh & M. Soler 10.1038/s43247-025-02031-8
- National climate change mitigation efforts for aviation: Lessons from post-Covid state action plans A. Pachai & L. Besco 10.1080/15568318.2024.2435558
- Factors limiting contrail detection in satellite imagery O. Driver et al. 10.5194/amt-18-1115-2025
- Differences in microphysical properties of cirrus at high and mid-latitudes E. De La Torre Castro et al. 10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023
- Addressing Global Warming: Challenges and Solutions in the Aviation Industry Z. Zhou 10.54097/3q2tf172
- Uncertainties in mitigating aviation non-CO2 emissions for climate and air quality using hydrocarbon fuels D. Lee et al. 10.1039/D3EA00091E
- The effect of uncertainty in humidity and model parameters on the prediction of contrail energy forcing J. Platt et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6ee5
- Upper-tropospheric slightly ice-subsaturated regions: frequency of occurrence and statistical evidence for the appearance of contrail cirrus Y. Li et al. 10.5194/acp-23-2251-2023
- Towards a more reliable forecast of ice supersaturation: concept of a one-moment ice-cloud scheme that avoids saturation adjustment D. Sperber & K. Gierens 10.5194/acp-23-15609-2023
- Machine learning for improvement of upper-tropospheric relative humidity in ERA5 weather model data Z. Wang et al. 10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025
- Contrail Detection on GOES-16 ABI With the OpenContrails Dataset J. Ng et al. 10.1109/TGRS.2023.3345226
- The importance of an informed choice of CO2-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance A. Borella et al. 10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024
- Comparison of Actual and Time-Optimized Flight Trajectories in the Context of the In-Service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) Programme O. Boucher et al. 10.3390/aerospace10090744
- Calibration of Upper Air Water Vapour Profiles Using the IPRAL Raman Lidar and ERA5 Model Results and Comparison to GRUAN Radiosonde Observations D. Alraddawi et al. 10.3390/atmos16030351
- The high-resolution Global Aviation emissions Inventory based on ADS-B (GAIA) for 2019–2021 R. Teoh et al. 10.5194/acp-24-725-2024
- Real-Time Contrail Monitoring and Mitigation Using CubeSat Constellations N. Pushparaj et al. 10.3390/atmos15121543
- A scalable system to measure contrail formation on a per-flight basis S. Geraedts et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ad11ab
- Powering aircraft with 100 % sustainable aviation fuel reduces ice crystals in contrails R. Märkl et al. 10.5194/acp-24-3813-2024
- Contrail minimization through altitude diversions: A feasibility study leveraging global data E. Roosenbrand et al. 10.1016/j.trip.2023.100953
- Regional and seasonal impact of hydrogen propulsion systems on potential contrail cirrus cover S. Kaufmann et al. 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100298
- Linear Contrails Detection, Tracking and Matching with Aircraft Using Geostationary Satellite and Air Traffic Data R. Chevallier et al. 10.3390/aerospace10070578
- Emission location affects impacts on atmosphere and climate from alternative fuels for Norwegian domestic aviation J. Klenner et al. 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100301
- Observations of microphysical properties and radiative effects of a contrail cirrus outbreak over the North Atlantic Z. Wang et al. 10.5194/acp-23-1941-2023
- Correction of ERA5 temperature and relative humidity biases by bivariate quantile mapping for contrail formation analysis K. Wolf et al. 10.5194/acp-25-157-2025
- Jet aircraft lubrication oil droplets as contrail ice-forming particles J. Ponsonby et al. 10.5194/acp-24-2045-2024
- Feasibility of contrail avoidance in a commercial flight planning system: an operational analysis A. Martin Frias et al. 10.1088/2634-4505/ad310c
- Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: the CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0 Z. Engberg et al. 10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025
- The Application of a Convolutional Neural Network for the Detection of Contrails in Satellite Imagery J. Hoffman et al. 10.3390/rs15112854
- Sooting tendencies: Combustion science for designing sustainable fuels with improved properties L. Pfefferle et al. 10.1016/j.proci.2024.105750
- Measurements of particle emissions of an A350-941 burning 100 % sustainable aviation fuels in cruise R. Dischl et al. 10.5194/acp-24-11255-2024
- How well can persistent contrails be predicted? An update S. Hofer et al. 10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024
- Characterizing the Full Climate Impact of Individual Real-World Flights Using a Linear Temperature Response Model M. Awde & C. Stuart 10.3390/aerospace12020121
- Feasibility test of per-flight contrail avoidance in commercial aviation A. Sonabend-W et al. 10.1038/s44172-024-00329-7
- Ground-based contrail observations: comparisons with reanalysis weather data and contrail model simulations J. Low et al. 10.5194/amt-18-37-2025
- Opinion: Eliminating aircraft soot emissions U. Trivanovic & S. Pratsinis 10.5194/ar-2-207-2024
- Investigating an indirect aviation effect on mid-latitude cirrus clouds – linking lidar-derived optical properties to in situ measurements S. Groß et al. 10.5194/acp-23-8369-2023
- Thermodynamic evaluation of contrail formation from a conventional jet fuel and an ammonia-based aviation propulsion system T. Cannon et al. 10.1038/s44172-024-00312-2
- Operational differences lead to longer lifetimes of satellite detectable contrails from more fuel efficient aircraft E. Gryspeerdt et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5b78
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Targeted Use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel to Maximize Climate Benefits R. Teoh et al. 10.1021/acs.est.2c05781
- Liquid Hydrogen: A Mirage or Potent Solution for Aviation’s Climate Woes? T. Miller et al. 10.1021/acs.est.2c06286
- The Ethics of Unintentional Geoengineering A. Lee & M. Shapiro 10.1080/21550085.2023.2217498
- Design Principles for a Contrail-Minimizing Trial in the North Atlantic J. Molloy et al. 10.3390/aerospace9070375
Latest update: 01 Apr 2025
Short summary
Aircraft condensation trails (contrails) contribute to over half of the climate forcing attributable to aviation. This study uses historical air traffic and weather data to simulate contrails in the North Atlantic over 5 years, from 2016 to 2021. We found large intra- and inter-year variability in contrail radiative forcing and observed a 66 % reduction due to COVID-19. Most warming contrails predominantly result from night-time flights in winter.
Aircraft condensation trails (contrails) contribute to over half of the climate forcing...
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