Articles | Volume 21, issue 17
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12835–12853, 2021
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12835–12853, 2021

Research article 31 Aug 2021

Research article | 31 Aug 2021

Does the coupling of the semiannual oscillation with the quasi-biennial oscillation provide predictability of Antarctic sudden stratospheric warmings?

Viktoria J. Nordström and Annika Seppälä

Data sets

MERRA-2 inst6_3d_ana_Np: 3d,6-Hourly,Instantaneous,Pressure-Level,Analysis,Analyzed Meteorological Fields V5.12.4 Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)

Multivariate ENSO Index Version 2 (MEI.v2) NOAA

Madden-Julian oscillation index (MJO) NOAA

Short summary
The winter winds over Antarctica form a stable vortex. However, in 2019 the vortex was disrupted and the temperature in the polar stratosphere rose by 50°C. This event, called a sudden stratospheric warming, is a rare event in the Southern Hemisphere, with the only known major event having taken place in 2002. The 2019 event helps us unravel its causes, which are largely unknown. We have discovered a unique behaviour of the equatorial winds in 2002 and 2019 that may signal an impending SH SSW.
Final-revised paper