Articles | Volume 21, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12495-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12495-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Aug 2021
Research article |
| 19 Aug 2021
| 19 Aug 2021
Projections of shipping emissions and the related impact on air pollution and human health in the Nordic region
Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box 358, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
iCLIMATE, Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change at Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
Morten Winther
Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box 358, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
Camilla Andersson
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden
Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen
Atmospheric Composition Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Jørgen Brandt
Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box 358, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
iCLIMATE, Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change at Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
Lise M. Frohn
Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box 358, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
iCLIMATE, Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change at Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box 358, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
iCLIMATE, Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change at Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
Wing Leung
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden
Jesper H. Christensen
Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box 358, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
iCLIMATE, Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change at Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
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- Ship emission projections based on time series forecasting model for sustainable shipping in the strait of Malacca and Singapore K. Ten et al. 10.1088/1757-899X/1294/1/012038
- COMMUNICATING OUTPUTS, OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS OF WASTE-RELATED RESEARCH: THE “EMERGE” CASE STUDY I. Williams et al. 10.31025/2611-4135/2024.19439
- Attenuation of Methane Oxidation by Nitrogen Availability in Arctic Tundra Soils J. Lee et al. 10.1021/acs.est.2c05228
- Pregnancy outcomes as related to in utero exposure to air pollution and greenness: The Life-GAP Project R. Sinsamala et al. 10.1097/EE9.0000000000000318
- Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons as fuel-dependent markers in ship engine emissions using single-particle mass spectrometry L. Anders et al. 10.1039/D4EA00035H
- Source-Specific Air Pollution Including Ultrafine Particles and Risk of Myocardial Infarction: A Nationwide Cohort Study from Denmark A. Poulsen et al. 10.1289/EHP10556
- Present-day and future PM2.5 and O3-related global and regional premature mortality in the EVAv6.0 health impact assessment model U. Im et al. 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114702
- Long-term reanalysis, future scenarios and impacts of nitrogen deposition on northern European ecosystems including the Baltic Sea and the Scandinavian Mountains C. Andersson et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179083
- Detection and analysis of ship emissions using single-particle mass spectrometry: A land-based field study in the port of rostock, Germany E. Rosewig et al. 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100302
- Communicating ocean and human health connections: An agenda for research and practice M. Reamer 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1033905
- Air pollution inequality and its temporal trends in Nordic countries A. Strandell et al. 10.1080/00207233.2024.2403952
- Integrated green technology adoption, ship speed optimization and slot management for shipping alliance under emission limits and uncertain fuel prices Y. Gu et al. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.144939
- Modelling ultrafine particle number concentrations at address resolution in Denmark from 1979-2018 – Part 1: Regional and urban scale modelling and evaluation L. Frohn et al. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118631
- Shifting to Sustainable Shipping: Actors and Power Shifts in Shipping Emissions in the IMO J. Baumann 10.3390/su151712742
- On risk management of shipping system in ice-covered waters: Review, analysis and toolbox based on an eight-year polar project L. Lu et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.113078
- Air pollution emission inventory using national high-resolution spatial parameters for the Nordic countries and analysis of PM2.5 spatial distribution for road transport and machinery and off-road sectors V. Paunu et al. 10.5194/essd-16-1453-2024
- A Real-Time Measurement-Modeling System for Ship Air Pollution Emission Factors F. Zhou et al. 10.3390/jmse10060760
- The inland waterway ship emission inventory modeling: The Yangtze River case X. Peng et al. 10.1016/j.trd.2024.104138
- The recent and future PM2.5-related health burden in China apportioned by emission source J. Liu et al. 10.1038/s44407-025-00006-9
- Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of Arctic shipping black carbon emissions based on AIS data 2016 to 2022 X. Qi et al. 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118318
- Associations of parental air pollution and greenness exposures with offspring asthma outcomes R. Sinsamala et al. 10.1016/j.envres.2025.121328
- Global health benefits of shipping emission reduction in early 2020 W. Sun et al. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120648
- Stability and energy consumption analysis of arctic fleet: modeling and simulation based on future motion of multi-ship K. Xu et al. 10.1007/s11356-023-27787-4
- Present-Day and Future Pm2.5 and O3-Related Global and Regional Premature Mortality in the Evav6.0 Health Impact Assessment Model u. im et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4094648
- Impact of meteorology and aerosol sources on PM2.5 and oxidative potential variability and levels in China J. Liu et al. 10.5194/acp-24-10849-2024
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The variability of mass concentrations and source apportionment analysis of equivalent black carbon across urban Europe M. Savadkoohi et al. 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108081
- Advances in air quality research – current and emerging challenges R. Sokhi et al. 10.5194/acp-22-4615-2022
- Ship emission projections based on time series forecasting model for sustainable shipping in the strait of Malacca and Singapore K. Ten et al. 10.1088/1757-899X/1294/1/012038
- COMMUNICATING OUTPUTS, OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS OF WASTE-RELATED RESEARCH: THE “EMERGE” CASE STUDY I. Williams et al. 10.31025/2611-4135/2024.19439
- Attenuation of Methane Oxidation by Nitrogen Availability in Arctic Tundra Soils J. Lee et al. 10.1021/acs.est.2c05228
- Pregnancy outcomes as related to in utero exposure to air pollution and greenness: The Life-GAP Project R. Sinsamala et al. 10.1097/EE9.0000000000000318
- Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons as fuel-dependent markers in ship engine emissions using single-particle mass spectrometry L. Anders et al. 10.1039/D4EA00035H
- Source-Specific Air Pollution Including Ultrafine Particles and Risk of Myocardial Infarction: A Nationwide Cohort Study from Denmark A. Poulsen et al. 10.1289/EHP10556
- Present-day and future PM2.5 and O3-related global and regional premature mortality in the EVAv6.0 health impact assessment model U. Im et al. 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114702
- Long-term reanalysis, future scenarios and impacts of nitrogen deposition on northern European ecosystems including the Baltic Sea and the Scandinavian Mountains C. Andersson et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179083
- Detection and analysis of ship emissions using single-particle mass spectrometry: A land-based field study in the port of rostock, Germany E. Rosewig et al. 10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100302
- Communicating ocean and human health connections: An agenda for research and practice M. Reamer 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1033905
- Air pollution inequality and its temporal trends in Nordic countries A. Strandell et al. 10.1080/00207233.2024.2403952
- Integrated green technology adoption, ship speed optimization and slot management for shipping alliance under emission limits and uncertain fuel prices Y. Gu et al. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.144939
- Modelling ultrafine particle number concentrations at address resolution in Denmark from 1979-2018 – Part 1: Regional and urban scale modelling and evaluation L. Frohn et al. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118631
- Shifting to Sustainable Shipping: Actors and Power Shifts in Shipping Emissions in the IMO J. Baumann 10.3390/su151712742
- On risk management of shipping system in ice-covered waters: Review, analysis and toolbox based on an eight-year polar project L. Lu et al. 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.113078
- Air pollution emission inventory using national high-resolution spatial parameters for the Nordic countries and analysis of PM2.5 spatial distribution for road transport and machinery and off-road sectors V. Paunu et al. 10.5194/essd-16-1453-2024
- A Real-Time Measurement-Modeling System for Ship Air Pollution Emission Factors F. Zhou et al. 10.3390/jmse10060760
- The inland waterway ship emission inventory modeling: The Yangtze River case X. Peng et al. 10.1016/j.trd.2024.104138
- The recent and future PM2.5-related health burden in China apportioned by emission source J. Liu et al. 10.1038/s44407-025-00006-9
- Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of Arctic shipping black carbon emissions based on AIS data 2016 to 2022 X. Qi et al. 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118318
- Associations of parental air pollution and greenness exposures with offspring asthma outcomes R. Sinsamala et al. 10.1016/j.envres.2025.121328
- Global health benefits of shipping emission reduction in early 2020 W. Sun et al. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120648
- Stability and energy consumption analysis of arctic fleet: modeling and simulation based on future motion of multi-ship K. Xu et al. 10.1007/s11356-023-27787-4
- Present-Day and Future Pm2.5 and O3-Related Global and Regional Premature Mortality in the Evav6.0 Health Impact Assessment Model u. im et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4094648
- Impact of meteorology and aerosol sources on PM2.5 and oxidative potential variability and levels in China J. Liu et al. 10.5194/acp-24-10849-2024
Latest update: 02 Jul 2025
Short summary
In this study, we set up new shipping emissions scenarios and use two chemistry transport models and a health assessment model to assess the development of air quality and related health impacts in the Nordic region. Shipping alone is associated with about 850 premature deaths during present-day conditions, decreasing to approximately 550–600 cases in the 2050 scenarios.
In this study, we set up new shipping emissions scenarios and use two chemistry transport models...
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