Articles | Volume 18, issue 9
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6413–6425, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6413-2018
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6413–6425, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6413-2018
Review article
07 May 2018
Review article | 07 May 2018

Assessing the uncertainty of soil moisture impacts on convective precipitation using a new ensemble approach

Olga Henneberg et al.

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Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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Cited articles

Adler, B., Kalthoff, N., and Gantner, L.: The impact of soil moisture inhomogeneities on the modification of a mesoscale convective system: An idealised model study, Atmos. Res., 101, 354–372, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.03.013, 2011.
Barthlott, C. and Kalthoff, N.: A Numerical Sensitivity Study on the Impact of Soil Moisture on Convection-Related Parameters and Convective Precipitation over Complex Terrain, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2971–2987, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-027.1, 2011.
Barthlott, C., Hauck, C., Schädler, G., Kalthoff, N., and Kottmeier, C.: Soil moisture impacts on convective indices and precipitation over complex terrain, Meteorol. Z., 20, 185–197, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2011/0216, 2011.
Bouttier, F., Raynaud, L., Nuissier, O., and Ménétrier, B.: Sensitivity of the AROME ensemble to initial and surface perturbations during HyMeX, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 390–403, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2622, 2016.
Cheng, W. Y. Y. and Cotton, W. R.: Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Simulation of the Genesis of a Mesoscale Convective System to Horizontal Heterogeneities in Soil Moisture Initialization, J. Hydrometeor., 5, 934–958, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2004)005<0934:SOACSO>2.0.CO;2, 2004.
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Soil moisture influences the occurrence of convective precipitation. An accurate knowledge of soil moisture might improve the prediction of convective cells. But the model uncertainty overshadows the impact of soil moisture in convection resolving models. Only drastic soil moisture changes can exhibit the model uncertainties. Both the enhanced and reduced soil moisture result in a reduced precipitation rate. We point out the need for uncertainty estimations in soil moisture studies.
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