The impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the greater North Sea region – Part 2: Scenarios for 2030

Abstract. Scenarios for future shipping emissions in the North Sea have been developed in the framework of the Clean North Sea Shipping project. The effects of changing NO_x and SO₂ emissions were investigated with the CMAQ chemistry transport model for the year 2030 in the North Sea area. It has been found that, compared to today, the contribution of shipping to the NO₂ and O₃ concentrations will increase due to the expected enhanced traffic by more than 20 and 5 %, respectively, by 2030 if no regulation for further emission reductions is implemented in the North Sea area. PM_2.5 will decrease slightly because the sulfur contents in ship fuels will be reduced as international regulations foresee. The effects differ largely between regions, seasons and date of the implementation of stricter regulations for NO_x emissions from newly built ships.