Research article
28 Sep 2016
Research article
| 28 Sep 2016
Future Arctic ozone recovery: the importance of chemistry and dynamics
Ewa M. Bednarz et al.
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Cited
43 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions S. Dhomse et al. 10.1038/s41467-019-13717-x
- Effect of lower stratospheric temperature on total ozone column (TOC) during the ozone depletion and recovery phases S. Ningombam et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104686
- Surface ozone interannual variability, trends, and extremes in CCMI models L. Zhang & Y. Cui 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118841
- The recent signs of total column ozone recovery over mid-latitudes: The effects of the Montreal Protocol mandate S. Ningombam et al. 10.1016/j.jastp.2018.05.011
- Description and Evaluation of the specified-dynamics experiment in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative C. Orbe et al. 10.5194/acp-20-3809-2020
- Contrast Relationships Between Arctic Oscillation and Ozone in the Stratosphere Over the Arctic in Early and Mid‐to‐Late Winter M. Liu & D. Hu 10.1029/2020JD033426
- Inter-model comparison of global hydroxyl radical (OH) distributions and their impact on atmospheric methane over the 2000–2016 period Y. Zhao et al. 10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019
- Review of the global models used within phase 1 of the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) O. Morgenstern et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017
- Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability E. Bednarz et al. 10.5194/acp-19-5209-2019
- Chemical Evolution of the Exceptional Arctic Stratospheric Winter 2019/2020 Compared to Previous Arctic and Antarctic Winters I. Wohltmann et al. 10.1029/2020JD034356
- Seasonality in the Vertical Structure of Long-Term Temperature Trends Over North America N. Thomas et al. 10.1080/07055900.2020.1855409
- Deriving Global OH Abundance and Atmospheric Lifetimes for Long‐Lived Gases: A Search for CH 3 CCl 3 Alternatives Q. Liang et al. 10.1002/2017JD026926
- Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift J. Zhang et al. 10.1038/s41467-017-02565-2
- Recent Arctic ozone depletion: Is there an impact of climate change? J. Pommereau et al. 10.1016/j.crte.2018.07.009
- Association between solar ultraviolet doses and vitamin D clinical routine data in European mid-latitude population between 2006 and 2018 D. Ferrari et al. 10.1039/C9PP00372J
- Brewer–Dobson Circulation: Recent-Past and Near-Future Trends Simulated by Chemistry-Climate Models D. Hu et al. 10.1155/2017/2913895
- On ozone trend detection: using coupled chemistry–climate simulations to investigate early signs of total column ozone recovery J. Keeble et al. 10.5194/acp-18-7625-2018
- Near‐Complete Local Reduction of Arctic Stratospheric Ozone by Severe Chemical Loss in Spring 2020 I. Wohltmann et al. 10.1029/2020GL089547
- Projecting ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models weighted by model performance and independence M. Amos et al. 10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020
- Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone P. von der Gathen et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-24089-6
- Variability and trends in surface solar spectral ultraviolet irradiance in Italy: on the influence of geopotential height and lower-stratospheric ozone I. Fountoulakis et al. 10.5194/acp-21-18689-2021
- Clear-sky ultraviolet radiation modelling using output from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative K. Lamy et al. 10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019
- The Strong Stratospheric Polar Vortex in March 2020 in Sub‐Seasonal to Seasonal Models: Implications for Empirical Prediction of the Low Arctic Total Ozone Extreme J. Rao & C. Garfinkel 10.1029/2020JD034190
- Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends A. Maycock et al. 10.1029/2018GL078035
- Diagnosing the radiative and chemical contributions to future changes in tropical column ozone with the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model J. Keeble et al. 10.5194/acp-17-13801-2017
- Using a virtual machine environment for developing, testing, and training for the UM-UKCA composition-climate model, using Unified Model version 10.9 and above N. Abraham et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-3647-2018
- Analysis of recent lower-stratospheric ozone trends in chemistry climate models S. Dietmüller et al. 10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021
- Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer M. Chipperfield et al. 10.1038/nature23681
- Separating the role of direct radiative heating and photolysis in modulating the atmospheric response to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle forcing E. Bednarz et al. 10.5194/acp-19-9833-2019
- Record low ozone values over the Arctic in boreal spring 2020 M. Dameris et al. 10.5194/acp-21-617-2021
- Dynamical mechanisms for the recent ozone depletion in the Arctic stratosphere linked to North Pacific sea surface temperatures D. Hu et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-06026-x
- Impact of Unmitigated HFC Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone at the End of the 21st Century as Simulated by Chemistry‐Climate Models E. Dupuy et al. 10.1029/2021JD035307
- The effects of stratospheric meridional circulation on surface pressure and tropospheric meridional circulation S. Zhang & W. Tian 10.1007/s00382-019-04968-x
- Ozone Variation Trends under Different CMIP6 Scenarios L. Shang et al. 10.3390/atmos12010112
- Sensitivity of the Southern Hemisphere circumpolar jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: prescribed versus interactive chemistry S. Haase et al. 10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020
- Genetic modification of the flavonoid pathway alters growth and reveals flexible responses to enhanced UVB – Role of foliar condensed tannins P. Thitz et al. 10.1002/pei3.10036
- Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 P. Vargin et al. 10.3390/atmos13010025
- Ozone–climate interactions and effects on solar ultraviolet radiation A. Bais et al. 10.1039/C8PP90059K
- Modelling the potential impacts of the recent, unexpected increase in CFC-11 emissions on total column ozone recovery J. Keeble et al. 10.5194/acp-20-7153-2020
- Near-Surface Ozone Variations in East Asia during Boreal Summer J. Wie et al. 10.3390/atmos11020206
- Simulation of Record Arctic Stratospheric Ozone Depletion in 2020 J. Grooß & R. Müller 10.1029/2020JD033339
- Description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in UKESM1 A. Archibald et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020
- Chemical and dynamical impacts of stratospheric sudden warmings on Arctic ozone variability S. Strahan et al. 10.1002/2016JD025128
42 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions S. Dhomse et al. 10.1038/s41467-019-13717-x
- Effect of lower stratospheric temperature on total ozone column (TOC) during the ozone depletion and recovery phases S. Ningombam et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104686
- Surface ozone interannual variability, trends, and extremes in CCMI models L. Zhang & Y. Cui 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118841
- The recent signs of total column ozone recovery over mid-latitudes: The effects of the Montreal Protocol mandate S. Ningombam et al. 10.1016/j.jastp.2018.05.011
- Description and Evaluation of the specified-dynamics experiment in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative C. Orbe et al. 10.5194/acp-20-3809-2020
- Contrast Relationships Between Arctic Oscillation and Ozone in the Stratosphere Over the Arctic in Early and Mid‐to‐Late Winter M. Liu & D. Hu 10.1029/2020JD033426
- Inter-model comparison of global hydroxyl radical (OH) distributions and their impact on atmospheric methane over the 2000–2016 period Y. Zhao et al. 10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019
- Review of the global models used within phase 1 of the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) O. Morgenstern et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017
- Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability E. Bednarz et al. 10.5194/acp-19-5209-2019
- Chemical Evolution of the Exceptional Arctic Stratospheric Winter 2019/2020 Compared to Previous Arctic and Antarctic Winters I. Wohltmann et al. 10.1029/2020JD034356
- Seasonality in the Vertical Structure of Long-Term Temperature Trends Over North America N. Thomas et al. 10.1080/07055900.2020.1855409
- Deriving Global OH Abundance and Atmospheric Lifetimes for Long‐Lived Gases: A Search for CH 3 CCl 3 Alternatives Q. Liang et al. 10.1002/2017JD026926
- Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift J. Zhang et al. 10.1038/s41467-017-02565-2
- Recent Arctic ozone depletion: Is there an impact of climate change? J. Pommereau et al. 10.1016/j.crte.2018.07.009
- Association between solar ultraviolet doses and vitamin D clinical routine data in European mid-latitude population between 2006 and 2018 D. Ferrari et al. 10.1039/C9PP00372J
- Brewer–Dobson Circulation: Recent-Past and Near-Future Trends Simulated by Chemistry-Climate Models D. Hu et al. 10.1155/2017/2913895
- On ozone trend detection: using coupled chemistry–climate simulations to investigate early signs of total column ozone recovery J. Keeble et al. 10.5194/acp-18-7625-2018
- Near‐Complete Local Reduction of Arctic Stratospheric Ozone by Severe Chemical Loss in Spring 2020 I. Wohltmann et al. 10.1029/2020GL089547
- Projecting ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models weighted by model performance and independence M. Amos et al. 10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020
- Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone P. von der Gathen et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-24089-6
- Variability and trends in surface solar spectral ultraviolet irradiance in Italy: on the influence of geopotential height and lower-stratospheric ozone I. Fountoulakis et al. 10.5194/acp-21-18689-2021
- Clear-sky ultraviolet radiation modelling using output from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative K. Lamy et al. 10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019
- The Strong Stratospheric Polar Vortex in March 2020 in Sub‐Seasonal to Seasonal Models: Implications for Empirical Prediction of the Low Arctic Total Ozone Extreme J. Rao & C. Garfinkel 10.1029/2020JD034190
- Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends A. Maycock et al. 10.1029/2018GL078035
- Diagnosing the radiative and chemical contributions to future changes in tropical column ozone with the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model J. Keeble et al. 10.5194/acp-17-13801-2017
- Using a virtual machine environment for developing, testing, and training for the UM-UKCA composition-climate model, using Unified Model version 10.9 and above N. Abraham et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-3647-2018
- Analysis of recent lower-stratospheric ozone trends in chemistry climate models S. Dietmüller et al. 10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021
- Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer M. Chipperfield et al. 10.1038/nature23681
- Separating the role of direct radiative heating and photolysis in modulating the atmospheric response to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle forcing E. Bednarz et al. 10.5194/acp-19-9833-2019
- Record low ozone values over the Arctic in boreal spring 2020 M. Dameris et al. 10.5194/acp-21-617-2021
- Dynamical mechanisms for the recent ozone depletion in the Arctic stratosphere linked to North Pacific sea surface temperatures D. Hu et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-06026-x
- Impact of Unmitigated HFC Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone at the End of the 21st Century as Simulated by Chemistry‐Climate Models E. Dupuy et al. 10.1029/2021JD035307
- The effects of stratospheric meridional circulation on surface pressure and tropospheric meridional circulation S. Zhang & W. Tian 10.1007/s00382-019-04968-x
- Ozone Variation Trends under Different CMIP6 Scenarios L. Shang et al. 10.3390/atmos12010112
- Sensitivity of the Southern Hemisphere circumpolar jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: prescribed versus interactive chemistry S. Haase et al. 10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020
- Genetic modification of the flavonoid pathway alters growth and reveals flexible responses to enhanced UVB – Role of foliar condensed tannins P. Thitz et al. 10.1002/pei3.10036
- Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 P. Vargin et al. 10.3390/atmos13010025
- Ozone–climate interactions and effects on solar ultraviolet radiation A. Bais et al. 10.1039/C8PP90059K
- Modelling the potential impacts of the recent, unexpected increase in CFC-11 emissions on total column ozone recovery J. Keeble et al. 10.5194/acp-20-7153-2020
- Near-Surface Ozone Variations in East Asia during Boreal Summer J. Wie et al. 10.3390/atmos11020206
- Simulation of Record Arctic Stratospheric Ozone Depletion in 2020 J. Grooß & R. Müller 10.1029/2020JD033339
- Description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in UKESM1 A. Archibald et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
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Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 08 Aug 2022
Short summary
Future trends in springtime Arctic ozone, and its chemical dynamical and radiative drivers, are analysed using a 7-member ensemble of chemistry–climate model integrations, allowing for a detailed assessment of interannual variability. Despite the future long-term recovery of Arctic ozone, there is large interannual variability and episodic reductions in springtime Arctic column ozone. Halogen chemistry will become a smaller but non-negligible driver of Arctic ozone variability over the century.
Future trends in springtime Arctic ozone, and its chemical dynamical and radiative drivers, are...
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