Articles | Volume 16, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Sep 2016
Research article |
| 28 Sep 2016
Future Arctic ozone recovery: the importance of chemistry and dynamics
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Amanda C. Maycock
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science – Climate, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
now at: School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds,
Leeds, UK
N. Luke Abraham
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science – Climate, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Peter Braesicke
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science – Climate, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
now at: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for
Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
Olivier Dessens
University College London, London, UK
John A. Pyle
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science – Climate, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
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- A connection from Siberian snow cover to Arctic stratospheric ozone Q. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107507
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- Chemical and dynamical impacts of stratospheric sudden warmings on Arctic ozone variability S. Strahan et al. 10.1002/2016JD025128
51 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions S. Dhomse et al. 10.1038/s41467-019-13717-x
- Surface ozone interannual variability, trends, and extremes in CCMI models L. Zhang & Y. Cui 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118841
- Description and Evaluation of the specified-dynamics experiment in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative C. Orbe et al. 10.5194/acp-20-3809-2020
- Inter-model comparison of global hydroxyl radical (OH) distributions and their impact on atmospheric methane over the 2000–2016 period Y. Zhao et al. 10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019
- Seasonality in the Vertical Structure of Long-Term Temperature Trends Over North America N. Thomas et al. 10.1080/07055900.2020.1855409
- Deriving Global OH Abundance and Atmospheric Lifetimes for Long‐Lived Gases: A Search for CH3CCl3 Alternatives Q. Liang et al. 10.1002/2017JD026926
- Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift J. Zhang et al. 10.1038/s41467-017-02565-2
- Recent Arctic ozone depletion: Is there an impact of climate change? J. Pommereau et al. 10.1016/j.crte.2018.07.009
- Description and evaluation of the new UM–UKCA (vn11.0) Double Extended Stratospheric–Tropospheric (DEST vn1.0) scheme for comprehensive modelling of halogen chemistry in the stratosphere E. Bednarz et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-6187-2023
- Brewer–Dobson Circulation: Recent-Past and Near-Future Trends Simulated by Chemistry-Climate Models D. Hu et al. 10.1155/2017/2913895
- On ozone trend detection: using coupled chemistry–climate simulations to investigate early signs of total column ozone recovery J. Keeble et al. 10.5194/acp-18-7625-2018
- Clear-sky ultraviolet radiation modelling using output from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative K. Lamy et al. 10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019
- The Strong Stratospheric Polar Vortex in March 2020 in Sub‐Seasonal to Seasonal Models: Implications for Empirical Prediction of the Low Arctic Total Ozone Extreme J. Rao & C. Garfinkel 10.1029/2020JD034190
- Diagnosing the radiative and chemical contributions to future changes in tropical column ozone with the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model J. Keeble et al. 10.5194/acp-17-13801-2017
- Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer M. Chipperfield et al. 10.1038/nature23681
- Separating the role of direct radiative heating and photolysis in modulating the atmospheric response to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle forcing E. Bednarz et al. 10.5194/acp-19-9833-2019
- Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 P. Vargin et al. 10.3390/atmos13010025
- Simulation of Record Arctic Stratospheric Ozone Depletion in 2020 J. Grooß & R. Müller 10.1029/2020JD033339
- Signal‐To‐Noise Calculations of Emergence and De‐Emergence of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion F. Robertson et al. 10.1029/2023GL104246
- Effect of lower stratospheric temperature on total ozone column (TOC) during the ozone depletion and recovery phases S. Ningombam et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104686
- The recent signs of total column ozone recovery over mid-latitudes: The effects of the Montreal Protocol mandate S. Ningombam et al. 10.1016/j.jastp.2018.05.011
- How does the latitude of stratospheric aerosol injection affect the climate in UKESM1? M. Henry et al. 10.5194/acp-24-13253-2024
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- Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability E. Bednarz et al. 10.5194/acp-19-5209-2019
- Relative Effects of the Greenhouse Gases and Stratospheric Ozone Increases on Temperature and Circulation in the Stratosphere over the Arctic D. Hu & Z. Guan 10.3390/rs14143447
- Chemical Evolution of the Exceptional Arctic Stratospheric Winter 2019/2020 Compared to Previous Arctic and Antarctic Winters I. Wohltmann et al. 10.1029/2020JD034356
- Association between solar ultraviolet doses and vitamin D clinical routine data in European mid-latitude population between 2006 and 2018 D. Ferrari et al. 10.1039/c9pp00372j
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- Long-term variability of human health-related solar ultraviolet-B radiation doses from the 1980s to the end of the 21st century C. Zerefos et al. 10.1152/physrev.00031.2022
- Integrated ozone depletion as a metric for ozone recovery J. Pyle et al. 10.1038/s41586-022-04968-8
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- Projecting ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models weighted by model performance and independence M. Amos et al. 10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020
- Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone P. von der Gathen et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-24089-6
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- The effects of stratospheric meridional circulation on surface pressure and tropospheric meridional circulation S. Zhang & W. Tian 10.1007/s00382-019-04968-x
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- Modelling the potential impacts of the recent, unexpected increase in CFC-11 emissions on total column ozone recovery J. Keeble et al. 10.5194/acp-20-7153-2020
- Near-Surface Ozone Variations in East Asia during Boreal Summer J. Wie et al. 10.3390/atmos11020206
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- Description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in UKESM1 A. Archibald et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
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Latest update: 26 Jul 2025
Short summary
Future trends in springtime Arctic ozone, and its chemical dynamical and radiative drivers, are analysed using a 7-member ensemble of chemistry–climate model integrations, allowing for a detailed assessment of interannual variability. Despite the future long-term recovery of Arctic ozone, there is large interannual variability and episodic reductions in springtime Arctic column ozone. Halogen chemistry will become a smaller but non-negligible driver of Arctic ozone variability over the century.
Future trends in springtime Arctic ozone, and its chemical dynamical and radiative drivers, are...
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