Future Arctic ozone recovery: the importance of chemistry and dynamics

Bednarz, Ewa M.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Abraham, N. Luke; Braesicke, Peter; Dessens, Olivier; Pyle, John A.

doi:10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016

Articles | Volume 16, issue 18

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 18

Research article

|

28 Sep 2016

Research article |

| 28 Sep 2016

Future Arctic ozone recovery: the importance of chemistry and dynamics

Ewa M. Bednarz, Amanda C. Maycock, N. Luke Abraham, Peter Braesicke, Olivier Dessens, and John A. Pyle

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Total article views: 5,627 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	Supplement	BibTeX	EndNote
3,701	1,660	266	5,627	803	184	195

HTML: 3,701
PDF: 1,660
XML: 266
Total: 5,627
Supplement: 803
BibTeX: 184
EndNote: 195

Views and downloads (calculated since 19 Jan 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jan 2016	105	56	0	161
Feb 2016	60	21	2	83
Mar 2016	28	22	0	50
Apr 2016	10	5	0	15
May 2016	8	7	0	15
Jun 2016	11	3	2	16
Jul 2016	15	6	1	22
Aug 2016	8	4	1	13
Sep 2016	117	38	3	158
Oct 2016	86	32	3	121
Nov 2016	22	11	7	40
Dec 2016	11	13	0	24
Jan 2017	25	6	3	34
Feb 2017	16	12	1	29
Mar 2017	35	17	4	56
Apr 2017	29	20	2	51
May 2017	31	37	3	71
Jun 2017	20	19	0	39
Jul 2017	24	21	0	45
Aug 2017	14	18	2	34
Sep 2017	20	21	1	42
Oct 2017	19	28	3	50
Nov 2017	23	24	0	47
Dec 2017	10	20	0	30
Jan 2018	16	17	1	34
Feb 2018	14	20	0	34
Mar 2018	22	23	0	45
Apr 2018	11	24	0	35
May 2018	20	13	1	34
Jun 2018	17	14	1	32
Jul 2018	15	8	2	25
Aug 2018	21	4	0	25
Sep 2018	14	8	0	22
Oct 2018	17	9	2	28
Nov 2018	15	8	2	25
Dec 2018	12	2	0	14
Jan 2019	7	6	1	14
Feb 2019	12	7	1	20
Mar 2019	10	11	0	21
Apr 2019	13	7	1	21
May 2019	15	10	1	26
Jun 2019	12	6	1	19
Jul 2019	9	8	2	19
Aug 2019	9	6	0	15
Sep 2019	6	1	0	7
Oct 2019	15	24	3	42
Nov 2019	13	10	0	23
Dec 2019	8	4	1	13
Jan 2020	9	7	3	19
Feb 2020	14	6	0	20
Mar 2020	2	10	0	12
Apr 2020	6	6	2	14
May 2020	13	26	2	41
Jun 2020	12	22	4	38
Jul 2020	22	34	5	61
Aug 2020	14	19	2	35
Sep 2020	9	22	7	38
Oct 2020	9	22	4	35
Nov 2020	8	10	3	21
Dec 2020	7	13	8	28
Jan 2021	22	14	4	40
Feb 2021	13	14	6	33
Mar 2021	11	11	8	30
Apr 2021	19	15	10	44
May 2021	17	10	6	33
Jun 2021	15	4	6	25
Jul 2021	10	12	0	22
Aug 2021	14	14	1	29
Sep 2021	16	11	2	29
Oct 2021	19	36	1	56
Nov 2021	18	34	2	54
Dec 2021	29	9	0	38
Jan 2022	21	8	4	33
Feb 2022	17	8	2	27
Mar 2022	16	11	1	28
Apr 2022	19	5	1	25
May 2022	14	5	0	19
Jun 2022	22	8	3	33
Jul 2022	12	3	3	18
Aug 2022	20	11	2	33
Sep 2022	14	5	0	19
Oct 2022	20	6	3	29
Nov 2022	28	18	1	47
Dec 2022	29	23	1	53
Jan 2023	35	12	2	49
Feb 2023	27	9	0	36
Mar 2023	30	12	0	42
Apr 2023	18	12	0	30
May 2023	38	10	0	48
Jun 2023	51	6	1	58
Jul 2023	46	5	1	52
Aug 2023	58	8	2	68
Sep 2023	127	5	0	132
Oct 2023	177	8	1	186
Nov 2023	219	6	0	225
Dec 2023	63	9	2	74
Jan 2024	71	15	0	86
Feb 2024	51	16	0	67
Mar 2024	104	12	3	119
Apr 2024	59	10	4	73
May 2024	22	15	5	42
Jun 2024	15	2	2	19
Jul 2024	18	10	4	32
Aug 2024	52	7	5	64
Sep 2024	21	6	1	28
Oct 2024	30	7	1	38
Nov 2024	18	6	4	28
Dec 2024	28	15	2	45
Jan 2025	32	10	5	47
Feb 2025	52	9	6	67
Mar 2025	32	16	1	49
Apr 2025	41	12	0	53
May 2025	36	2	7	45
Jun 2025	57	11	1	69
Jul 2025	53	17	3	73
Aug 2025	58	14	3	75
Sep 2025	47	15	3	65
Oct 2025	33	16	2	51
Nov 2025	43	21	2	66
Dec 2025	27	34	1	62
Jan 2026	58	30	19	107
Feb 2026	49	7	3	59
Mar 2026	53	10	3	66
Apr 2026	22	10	2	34

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 19 Jan 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jan 2016	105	56	0	161
Feb 2016	60	21	2	83
Mar 2016	28	22	0	50
Apr 2016	10	5	0	15
May 2016	8	7	0	15
Jun 2016	11	3	2	16
Jul 2016	15	6	1	22
Aug 2016	8	4	1	13
Sep 2016	117	38	3	158
Oct 2016	86	32	3	121
Nov 2016	22	11	7	40
Dec 2016	11	13	0	24
Jan 2017	25	6	3	34
Feb 2017	16	12	1	29
Mar 2017	35	17	4	56
Apr 2017	29	20	2	51
May 2017	31	37	3	71
Jun 2017	20	19	0	39
Jul 2017	24	21	0	45
Aug 2017	14	18	2	34
Sep 2017	20	21	1	42
Oct 2017	19	28	3	50
Nov 2017	23	24	0	47
Dec 2017	10	20	0	30
Jan 2018	16	17	1	34
Feb 2018	14	20	0	34
Mar 2018	22	23	0	45
Apr 2018	11	24	0	35
May 2018	20	13	1	34
Jun 2018	17	14	1	32
Jul 2018	15	8	2	25
Aug 2018	21	4	0	25
Sep 2018	14	8	0	22
Oct 2018	17	9	2	28
Nov 2018	15	8	2	25
Dec 2018	12	2	0	14
Jan 2019	7	6	1	14
Feb 2019	12	7	1	20
Mar 2019	10	11	0	21
Apr 2019	13	7	1	21
May 2019	15	10	1	26
Jun 2019	12	6	1	19
Jul 2019	9	8	2	19
Aug 2019	9	6	0	15
Sep 2019	6	1	0	7
Oct 2019	15	24	3	42
Nov 2019	13	10	0	23
Dec 2019	8	4	1	13
Jan 2020	9	7	3	19
Feb 2020	14	6	0	20
Mar 2020	2	10	0	12
Apr 2020	6	6	2	14
May 2020	13	26	2	41
Jun 2020	12	22	4	38
Jul 2020	22	34	5	61
Aug 2020	14	19	2	35
Sep 2020	9	22	7	38
Oct 2020	9	22	4	35
Nov 2020	8	10	3	21
Dec 2020	7	13	8	28
Jan 2021	22	14	4	40
Feb 2021	13	14	6	33
Mar 2021	11	11	8	30
Apr 2021	19	15	10	44
May 2021	17	10	6	33
Jun 2021	15	4	6	25
Jul 2021	10	12	0	22
Aug 2021	14	14	1	29
Sep 2021	16	11	2	29
Oct 2021	19	36	1	56
Nov 2021	18	34	2	54
Dec 2021	29	9	0	38
Jan 2022	21	8	4	33
Feb 2022	17	8	2	27
Mar 2022	16	11	1	28
Apr 2022	19	5	1	25
May 2022	14	5	0	19
Jun 2022	22	8	3	33
Jul 2022	12	3	3	18
Aug 2022	20	11	2	33
Sep 2022	14	5	0	19
Oct 2022	20	6	3	29
Nov 2022	28	18	1	47
Dec 2022	29	23	1	53
Jan 2023	35	12	2	49
Feb 2023	27	9	0	36
Mar 2023	30	12	0	42
Apr 2023	18	12	0	30
May 2023	38	10	0	48
Jun 2023	51	6	1	58
Jul 2023	46	5	1	52
Aug 2023	58	8	2	68
Sep 2023	127	5	0	132
Oct 2023	177	8	1	186
Nov 2023	219	6	0	225
Dec 2023	63	9	2	74
Jan 2024	71	15	0	86
Feb 2024	51	16	0	67
Mar 2024	104	12	3	119
Apr 2024	59	10	4	73
May 2024	22	15	5	42
Jun 2024	15	2	2	19
Jul 2024	18	10	4	32
Aug 2024	52	7	5	64
Sep 2024	21	6	1	28
Oct 2024	30	7	1	38
Nov 2024	18	6	4	28
Dec 2024	28	15	2	45
Jan 2025	32	10	5	47
Feb 2025	52	9	6	67
Mar 2025	32	16	1	49
Apr 2025	41	12	0	53
May 2025	36	2	7	45
Jun 2025	57	11	1	69
Jul 2025	53	17	3	73
Aug 2025	58	14	3	75
Sep 2025	47	15	3	65
Oct 2025	33	16	2	51
Nov 2025	43	21	2	66
Dec 2025	27	34	1	62
Jan 2026	58	30	19	107
Feb 2026	49	7	3	59
Mar 2026	53	10	3	66
Apr 2026	22	10	2	34

Latest update: 19 Apr 2026

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Short summary

Future trends in springtime Arctic ozone, and its chemical dynamical and radiative drivers, are analysed using a 7-member ensemble of chemistry–climate model integrations, allowing for a detailed assessment of interannual variability. Despite the future long-term recovery of Arctic ozone, there is large interannual variability and episodic reductions in springtime Arctic column ozone. Halogen chemistry will become a smaller but non-negligible driver of Arctic ozone variability over the century.