Improvement of ozone forecast over Beijing based on ensemble Kalman filter with simultaneous adjustment of initial conditions and emissions
Abstract. In order to improve the surface ozone forecast over Beijing and surrounding regions, data assimilation method integrated into a high-resolution regional air quality model and a regional air quality monitoring network are employed. Several advanced data assimilation strategies based on ensemble Kalman filter are designed to adjust O3 initial conditions, NOx initial conditions and emissions, VOCs initial conditions and emissions separately or jointly through assimilating ozone observations. As a result, adjusting precursor initial conditions demonstrates potential improvement of the 1-h ozone forecast almost as great as shown by adjusting precursor emissions. Nevertheless, either adjusting precursor initial conditions or emissions show deficiency in improving the short-term ozone forecast at suburban areas. Adjusting ozone initial values brings significant improvement to the 1-h ozone forecast, and its limitations lie in the difficulty in improving the 1-h forecast at some urban site. A simultaneous adjustment of the above five variables is found to be able to reduce these limitations and display an overall better performance in improving both the 1-h and 24-h ozone forecast over these areas. The root mean square errors of 1-h ozone forecast at urban sites and suburban sites decrease by 51% and 58% respectively compared with those in free run. Through these experiments, we found that assimilating local ozone observations is determinant for ozone forecast over the observational area, while assimilating remote ozone observations could reduce the uncertainty in regional transport ozone.