Ozone prediction based on meteorological variables: a fuzzy inductive reasoning approach

Abstract. MILAGRO project was conducted in Mexico City during March 2006 with the main objective of study the local and global impact of pollution generated by megacities. The research presented in this paper is framed in MILAGRO project and is focused on the study and development of modeling methodologies that allow the forecasting of daily ozone concentrations. The present work aims to develop Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning (FIR) models using the Visual-FIR platform. FIR offers a model-based approach to modeling and predicting either univariate or multivariate time series. Visual-FIR offers an easy-friendly environment to perform this task. In this research, long term prediction of maximum ozone concentration in the downtown of Mexico City Metropolitan Area is performed. The data were registered every hour and include missing values. Two modeling perspectives are analyzed, i.e. monthly and seasonal models. The results show that the developed models are able to predict the diurnal variation of ozone, including its maximum daily value in an accurate manner.