Articles | Volume 7, issue 24
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 6085–6098, 2007
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 6085–6098, 2007

  11 Dec 2007

11 Dec 2007

Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results

A. Riccio1, G. Giunta1, and S. Galmarini2 A. Riccio et al.
  • 1Dept. of Applied Science, University of Naples "Parthenope", Napoli, Italy
  • 2European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy

Abstract. In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides.

We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem) and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b).

This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify) model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner.

Final-revised paper