Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4651-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4651-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Opinion: The importance and future development of perturbed parameter ensembles in climate and atmospheric science
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
Leighton A. Regayre
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
Met Office, Exeter, UK
Ulrike Proske
Hydrology and Environmental Hydraulics Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Andrew Gettelman
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
David M. H. Sexton
Met Office, Exeter, UK
Yun Qian
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
Lauren R. Marshall
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
Oliver Wild
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Marcus van Lier-Walqui
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR), The Earth Institute, Columbia University, NY, New York, USA
Annika Oertel
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Troposphere Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
Saloua Peatier
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK
Ben Yang
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
Jill S. Johnson
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
School of Geography and Planning, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
Daniel T. McCoy
Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA
Benjamin M. Sanderson
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Christina J. Williamson
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, University of Helsinki, Finland
Gregory S. Elsaesser
Department of Applied Physics and Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Troposphere Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
Kuniko Yamazaki
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
Ben B. B. Booth
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
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Latest update: 09 Apr 2026
Editorial statement
Climate models are indispensable tools for quantitatively predicting changes in global mean surface temperature in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Despite decades of effort within the modeling community, large uncertainties persist. This opinion paper advocates for prioritizing the use of perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs) as an effective strategy for reducing uncertainty in climate projections, rather than focusing on increases in model complexity or spatial resolution. Based on a synthesis of the existing literature, the authors evaluate the broad applicability and demonstrated effectiveness of PPEs and propose a strategic agenda for their expanded use within the climate modelling community.
Climate models are indispensable tools for quantitatively predicting changes in global mean...
Short summary
A major challenge in climate science is reducing projection uncertainty despite advances in models and observational constraints. Perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs) offer a powerful tool to explore and reduce uncertainty by revealing model weaknesses and guiding development. PPEs are now widely applied across climate systems and scales. We argue they should be prioritized alongside complexity and resolution in model resource planning.
A major challenge in climate science is reducing projection uncertainty despite advances in...
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