Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4651-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4651-2026
Opinion
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09 Apr 2026
Opinion | Highlight paper |  | 09 Apr 2026

Opinion: The importance and future development of perturbed parameter ensembles in climate and atmospheric science

Ken S. Carslaw, Leighton A. Regayre, Ulrike Proske, Andrew Gettelman, David M. H. Sexton, Yun Qian, Lauren R. Marshall, Oliver Wild, Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Annika Oertel, Saloua Peatier, Ben Yang, Jill S. Johnson, Sihan Li, Daniel T. McCoy, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Christina J. Williamson, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Kuniko Yamazaki, and Ben B. B. Booth

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Editorial statement
Climate models are indispensable tools for quantitatively predicting changes in global mean surface temperature in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Despite decades of effort within the modeling community, large uncertainties persist. This opinion paper advocates for prioritizing the use of perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs) as an effective strategy for reducing uncertainty in climate projections, rather than focusing on increases in model complexity or spatial resolution. Based on a synthesis of the existing literature, the authors evaluate the broad applicability and demonstrated effectiveness of PPEs and propose a strategic agenda for their expanded use within the climate modelling community.
Short summary
A major challenge in climate science is reducing projection uncertainty despite advances in models and observational constraints. Perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs) offer a powerful tool to explore and reduce uncertainty by revealing model weaknesses and guiding development. PPEs are now widely applied across climate systems and scales. We argue they should be prioritized alongside complexity and resolution in model resource planning.
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