Articles | Volume 25, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9031-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9031-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Aug 2025
Research article |
| 21 Aug 2025
| 21 Aug 2025
Climate forcing due to future ozone changes: an intercomparison of metrics and methods
William J. Collins
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Fiona M. O'Connor
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Rachael E. Byrom
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Øivind Hodnebrog
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Patrick Jöckel
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Mariano Mertens
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Section Operations & Environment, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Gunnar Myhre
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Matthias Nützel
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Meteorologisches Institut München, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
Dirk Olivié
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 0313 Oslo, Norway
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Laura Stecher
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Yusuf Hamied Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Larry W. Horowitz
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Vaishali Naik
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Gregory Faluvegi
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, iClimate, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
Lee T. Murray
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, USA
Drew Shindell
Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
Kostas Tsigaridis
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Nathan Luke Abraham
Yusuf Hamied Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Cambridge, CB2 1EW, United Kingdom
James Keeble
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
Data sets
Data repository in support of “Climate Forcing due to Future Ozone Changes: An intercomparison of metrics and methods”, F. O'Connor https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15828602
CMIP6 Data Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) https://esgf-metagrid.cloud.dkrz.de/search
NIWA-BS Total Column Ozone Database V3.4.1 (3.4.1) G. E. Bodeker et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1346424
ciceroOslo/Radiative-kernels: v1.0.0 Ø. Hodnebrog et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16759214
Short summary
We used 7 climate models that include atmospheric chemistry and find that in a scenario with weak controls on air quality, the warming effects (over 2015 to 2050) of decreases in ozone-depleting substances and increases in air quality pollutants are approximately equal and would make ozone the second highest contributor to warming over this period. We find that for stratospheric ozone recovery, the standard measure of climate effects underestimates a more comprehensive measure.
We used 7 climate models that include atmospheric chemistry and find that in a scenario with...
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