Present-day correlations are insufficient to predict cloud albedo change by anthropogenic aerosols in E3SM v2

Mahfouz, Naser; Mülmenstädt, Johannes; Burrows, Susannah

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7253-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7253-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7253-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 12

Research article

|

25 Jun 2024

Research article |

| 25 Jun 2024

Present-day correlations are insufficient to predict cloud albedo change by anthropogenic aerosols in E3SM v2

Naser Mahfouz, Johannes Mülmenstädt, and Susannah Burrows

Data sets

Data used to calculate cloud albedo susceptibility in E3SM v2 Naser Mahfouz https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10436618

Model code and software

Model used to calculate cloud albedo susceptibility in E3SM v2 Naser Mahfouz https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10436543

Code used to calculate cloud albedo susceptibility in E3SM v2 Naser Mahfouz https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10971987

Energy Exascale Earth System Model (Version 2.1.0) E3SM Project https://doi.org/10.11578/E3SM/dc.20230110.5

Short summary

Climate models are our primary tool to probe past, present, and future climate states unlike the more recent observation record. By constructing a hypothetical model configuration, we show that present-day correlations are insufficient to predict a persistent uncertainty in climate projection (how much sun because clouds will reflect in a changing climate). We hope our result will contribute to the scholarly conversation on better utilizing observations to constrain climate uncertainties.