Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4801-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4801-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The future ozone trends in changing climate simulated with SOCOLv4
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC), ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
Eugene Rozanov
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC), ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
Ozone Layer and Upper Atmosphere Research Laboratory (O3Lab), Saint Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russia
Timofei Sukhodolov
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland
Ozone Layer and Upper Atmosphere Research Laboratory (O3Lab), Saint Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russia
Tatiana Egorova
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland
Jan Sedlacek
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland
Thomas Peter
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC), ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
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Cited
10 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Stratospheric injection of solid particles reduces side effects on circulation and climate compared to SO2 injections F. Stefanetti et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad9f93
- An Investigation of the SOCOLv4 Model’s Suitability for Predicting the Future Evolution of the Total Column Ozone G. Nerobelov et al. 10.3390/atmos15121491
- Russian Studies of Atmospheric Ozone and Its Precursors in 2019–2022 V. Andreev et al. 10.1134/S0001433823150021
- Environmental & health impacts of ultraviolet radiation: current trends and mitigation strategies G. Mmbando & K. Ngongolo 10.1007/s43621-024-00698-1
- The Effect of Climate Change on Allergen and Irritant Exposure S. Kim et al. 10.1016/j.jaip.2024.12.019
- Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone: Scientific History and Shifts in Early Perspectives Regarding the Impact on Human Health M. Alvim-Ferraz et al. 10.3390/atmos15121504
- Cyclic and Multi-Year Characterization of Surface Ozone at the WMO/GAW Coastal Station of Lamezia Terme (Calabria, Southern Italy): Implications for Local Environment, Cultural Heritage, and Human Health F. D’Amico et al. 10.3390/environments11100227
- Continuing benefits of the Montreal Protocol and protection of the stratospheric ozone layer for human health and the environment S. Madronich et al. 10.1007/s43630-024-00577-8
- Russian Investigations of Atmospheric Ozone and its Precursors in 2019–2022 V. Andreev et al. 10.31857/S0002351523070027
- Arctic stratosphere changes in the 21st century in the Earth system model SOCOLv4 P. Vargin et al. 10.3389/feart.2023.1214418
8 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Stratospheric injection of solid particles reduces side effects on circulation and climate compared to SO2 injections F. Stefanetti et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad9f93
- An Investigation of the SOCOLv4 Model’s Suitability for Predicting the Future Evolution of the Total Column Ozone G. Nerobelov et al. 10.3390/atmos15121491
- Russian Studies of Atmospheric Ozone and Its Precursors in 2019–2022 V. Andreev et al. 10.1134/S0001433823150021
- Environmental & health impacts of ultraviolet radiation: current trends and mitigation strategies G. Mmbando & K. Ngongolo 10.1007/s43621-024-00698-1
- The Effect of Climate Change on Allergen and Irritant Exposure S. Kim et al. 10.1016/j.jaip.2024.12.019
- Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone: Scientific History and Shifts in Early Perspectives Regarding the Impact on Human Health M. Alvim-Ferraz et al. 10.3390/atmos15121504
- Cyclic and Multi-Year Characterization of Surface Ozone at the WMO/GAW Coastal Station of Lamezia Terme (Calabria, Southern Italy): Implications for Local Environment, Cultural Heritage, and Human Health F. D’Amico et al. 10.3390/environments11100227
- Continuing benefits of the Montreal Protocol and protection of the stratospheric ozone layer for human health and the environment S. Madronich et al. 10.1007/s43630-024-00577-8
Latest update: 04 Feb 2025
Short summary
The future ozone evolution in SOCOLv4 simulations under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios has been assessed for the period 2015–2099 and subperiods using the DLM approach. The SOCOLv4 projects a decline in tropospheric ozone in the 2030s in SSP2-4.5 and in the 2060s in SSP5-8.5. The stratospheric ozone increase is ~3 times higher in SSP5-8.5, confirming the important role of GHGs in ozone evolution. We also showed that tropospheric ozone strongly impacts the total column in the tropics.
The future ozone evolution in SOCOLv4 simulations under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios has been...
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