Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
15 Jun 2018
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 15 Jun 2018
| 15 Jun 2018
Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT,
UK
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado,
USA
Martyn P. Chipperfield
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT,
UK
National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Ross J. Salawitch
Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland, College
Park, Maryland, USA
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland,
College Park, Maryland, USA
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland,
College Park, Maryland, USA
Irene Cionni
Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l'energia e lo Sviluppo
Economica Sostenible (ENEA), Bologna, Italy
Michaela I. Hegglin
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
N. Luke Abraham
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Lensfield Road,
Cambridge, CB2 1EW, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Cambridge, UK
Hideharu Akiyoshi
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba,
305-8506,
Japan
Alex T. Archibald
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Lensfield Road,
Cambridge, CB2 1EW, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Cambridge, UK
Ewa M. Bednarz
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Lensfield Road,
Cambridge, CB2 1EW, UK
Slimane Bekki
IPSL/CNRS, 75252 Paris, France
Peter Braesicke
IMK-ASF, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany
Neal Butchart
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Martin Dameris
Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut fur Physik der
Atmosphare, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Makoto Deushi
Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan
Stacey Frith
Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, USA
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Steven C. Hardiman
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Birgit Hassler
Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut fur Physik der
Atmosphare, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Larry W. Horowitz
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
Rong-Ming Hu
IPSL/CNRS, 75252 Paris, France
Patrick Jöckel
Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut fur Physik der
Atmosphare, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Beatrice Josse
Meteo-France, Toulouse, France
Oliver Kirner
Steinbuch Centre for Computing (SCC), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
(KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Stefanie Kremser
Bodeker Scientific, Alexandra, New Zealand
Ulrike Langematz
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universitat Berlin, Berlin,
Germany
Jared Lewis
Bodeker Scientific, Alexandra, New Zealand
Marion Marchand
IPSL/CNRS, 75252 Paris, France
Meiyun Lin
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ
08540, USA
Eva Mancini
Dept. of Physical and Chemical Sciences and Center of Excellence CETEMPS, Università dell'Aquila, 67100 L'Aquila, Italy
Virginie Marécal
Meteo-France, Toulouse, France
Martine Michou
Meteo-France, Toulouse, France
Olaf Morgenstern
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington,
New Zealand
Fiona M. O'Connor
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Luke Oman
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Giovanni Pitari
Dept. of Physical and Chemical Sciences, Università dell'Aquila, 67100 L'Aquila, Italy
David A. Plummer
Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada,
Montreal, Canada
John A. Pyle
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Lensfield Road,
Cambridge, CB2 1EW, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Cambridge, UK
Laura E. Revell
Bodeker Scientific, Alexandra, New Zealand
ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich,
Switzerland
Eugene Rozanov
ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich,
Switzerland
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation
Centre, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Robyn Schofield
School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Sydney, Australia
Andrea Stenke
ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich,
Switzerland
Kane Stone
School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Sydney, Australia
now at: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Boston, Massachusetts,
USA
Kengo Sudo
Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya,
Japan
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC),
Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Simone Tilmes
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado,
USA
Daniele Visioni
Dept. of Physical and Chemical Sciences and Center of Excellence CETEMPS, Università dell'Aquila, 67100 L'Aquila, Italy
Yousuke Yamashita
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba,
305-8506,
Japan
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC),
Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Guang Zeng
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington,
New Zealand
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Latest update: 08 Nov 2025
Short summary
We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return...
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