Articles | Volume 18, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-18149-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-18149-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Dec 2018
Research article |
| 21 Dec 2018
| 21 Dec 2018
Attribution of recent increases in atmospheric methane through 3-D inverse modelling
Joe McNorton
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Research Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Chris Wilson
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Manuel Gloor
School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Rob J. Parker
National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Earth Observation Science Group, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
Hartmut Boesch
National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Earth Observation Science Group, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
Wuhu Feng
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Ryan Hossaini
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster UK
Martyn P. Chipperfield
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
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45 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Untangling variations in the global methane budget C. Wilson 10.1038/s43247-023-00971-7
- Global atmospheric carbon monoxide budget 2000–2017 inferred from multi-species atmospheric inversions B. Zheng et al. 10.5194/essd-11-1411-2019
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- Interpreting contemporary trends in atmospheric methane A. Turner et al. 10.1073/pnas.1814297116
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- Isotopic signatures of major methane sources in the coal seam gas fields and adjacent agricultural districts, Queensland, Australia X. Lu et al. 10.5194/acp-21-10527-2021
- The impact of spatially varying wetland source signatures on the atmospheric variability ofδD-CH4 A. Stell et al. 10.1098/rsta.2020.0442
- A high-resolution satellite-based map of global methane emissions reveals missing wetland, fossil fuel, and monsoon sources X. Yu et al. 10.5194/acp-23-3325-2023
- Aircraft-based inversions quantify the importance of wetlands and livestock for Upper Midwest methane emissions X. Yu et al. 10.5194/acp-21-951-2021
- The added value of satellite observations of methane forunderstanding the contemporary methane budget P. Palmer et al. 10.1098/rsta.2021.0106
- Rain-fed pulses of methane from East Africa during 2018–2019 contributed to atmospheric growth rate M. Lunt et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abd8fa
- Shipborne measurements of methane and carbon dioxide in the Middle East and Mediterranean areas and the contribution from oil and gas emissions J. Paris et al. 10.5194/acp-21-12443-2021
- Rising methane: A new climate challenge S. Fletcher & H. Schaefer 10.1126/science.aax1828
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- Trends in global tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime since 1850 from AerChemMIP D. Stevenson et al. 10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020
- The consolidated European synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2019 A. Petrescu et al. 10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023
- Quantifying fossil fuel methane emissions using observations of atmospheric ethane and an uncertain emission ratio A. Ramsden et al. 10.5194/acp-22-3911-2022
- Emissions from the Oil and Gas Sectors, Coal Mining and Ruminant Farming Drive Methane Growth over the Past Three Decades N. CHANDRA et al. 10.2151/jmsj.2021-015
- A decade of GOSAT Proxy satellite CH<sub>4</sub> observations R. Parker et al. 10.5194/essd-12-3383-2020
- New contributions of measurements in Europe to the global inventory of the stable isotopic composition of methane M. Menoud et al. 10.5194/essd-14-4365-2022
- Estimating emissions of methane consistent with atmospheric measurements of methane and δ13C of methane S. Basu et al. 10.5194/acp-22-15351-2022
- Atmospheric methane and nitrous oxide: challenges alongthe path to Net Zero E. Nisbet et al. 10.1098/rsta.2020.0457
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- Decreasing seasonal cycle amplitude of methane in the northern high latitudes being driven by lower-latitude changes in emissions and transport E. Dowd et al. 10.5194/acp-23-7363-2023
- The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017 M. Saunois et al. 10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020
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- On the Causes and Consequences of Recent Trends in Atmospheric Methane H. Schaefer 10.1007/s40641-019-00140-z
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- Atmospheric-methane source and sink sensitivity analysis using Gaussian process emulation A. Stell et al. 10.5194/acp-21-1717-2021
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- A Synthesis Inversion to Constrain Global Emissions of Two Very Short Lived Chlorocarbons: Dichloromethane, and Perchloroethylene T. Claxton et al. 10.1029/2019JD031818
- Global distribution of methane emissions, emission trends, and OH concentrations and trends inferred from an inversion of GOSAT satellite data for 2010–2015 J. Maasakkers et al. 10.5194/acp-19-7859-2019
- Advancing Scientific Understanding of the Global Methane Budget in Support of the Paris Agreement A. Ganesan et al. 10.1029/2018GB006065
- Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the interannual variability of methane and tropospheric ozone M. Rowlinson et al. 10.5194/acp-19-8669-2019
- Accelerating methane growth rate from 2010 to 2017: leading contributions from the tropics and East Asia Y. Yin et al. 10.5194/acp-21-12631-2021
- Large Methane Emissions From the Pantanal During Rising Water‐Levels Revealed by Regularly Measured Lower Troposphere CH4 Profiles M. Gloor et al. 10.1029/2021GB006964
- Impact of interannual and multidecadal trends on methane-climate feedbacks and sensitivity C. Cheng & S. Redfern 10.1038/s41467-022-31345-w
- ICLASS 1.1, a variational Inverse modelling framework for the Chemistry Land-surface Atmosphere Soil Slab model: description, validation, and application P. Bosman & M. Krol 10.5194/gmd-16-47-2023
- Variational inverse modeling within the Community Inversion Framework v1.1 to assimilate <i>δ</i><sup>13</sup>C(CH<sub>4</sub>) and CH<sub>4</sub>: a case study with model LMDz-SACS J. Thanwerdas et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-4831-2022
- Atmospheric data support a multi-decadal shift in the global methane budget towards natural tropical emissions A. Drinkwater et al. 10.5194/acp-23-8429-2023
45 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2019 G. Bernhard et al. 10.1039/d0pp90011g
- Quantifying sources of Brazil's CH<sub>4</sub> emissions between 2010 and 2018 from satellite data R. Tunnicliffe et al. 10.5194/acp-20-13041-2020
- Observational constraints reduce model spread but not uncertainty in global wetland methane emission estimates K. Chang et al. 10.1111/gcb.16755
- Untangling variations in the global methane budget C. Wilson 10.1038/s43247-023-00971-7
- Global atmospheric carbon monoxide budget 2000–2017 inferred from multi-species atmospheric inversions B. Zheng et al. 10.5194/essd-11-1411-2019
- Influences of hydroxyl radicals (OH) on top-down estimates of the global and regional methane budgets Y. Zhao et al. 10.5194/acp-20-9525-2020
- Interpreting contemporary trends in atmospheric methane A. Turner et al. 10.1073/pnas.1814297116
- Large and increasing methane emissions from eastern Amazonia derived from satellite data, 2010–2018 C. Wilson et al. 10.5194/acp-21-10643-2021
- Isotopic signatures of major methane sources in the coal seam gas fields and adjacent agricultural districts, Queensland, Australia X. Lu et al. 10.5194/acp-21-10527-2021
- The impact of spatially varying wetland source signatures on the atmospheric variability ofδD-CH4 A. Stell et al. 10.1098/rsta.2020.0442
- A high-resolution satellite-based map of global methane emissions reveals missing wetland, fossil fuel, and monsoon sources X. Yu et al. 10.5194/acp-23-3325-2023
- Aircraft-based inversions quantify the importance of wetlands and livestock for Upper Midwest methane emissions X. Yu et al. 10.5194/acp-21-951-2021
- The added value of satellite observations of methane forunderstanding the contemporary methane budget P. Palmer et al. 10.1098/rsta.2021.0106
- Rain-fed pulses of methane from East Africa during 2018–2019 contributed to atmospheric growth rate M. Lunt et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abd8fa
- Shipborne measurements of methane and carbon dioxide in the Middle East and Mediterranean areas and the contribution from oil and gas emissions J. Paris et al. 10.5194/acp-21-12443-2021
- Rising methane: A new climate challenge S. Fletcher & H. Schaefer 10.1126/science.aax1828
- Constraining the budget of atmospheric carbonyl sulfide using a 3-D chemical transport model M. Cartwright et al. 10.5194/acp-23-10035-2023
- Trends in global tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime since 1850 from AerChemMIP D. Stevenson et al. 10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020
- The consolidated European synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2019 A. Petrescu et al. 10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023
- Quantifying fossil fuel methane emissions using observations of atmospheric ethane and an uncertain emission ratio A. Ramsden et al. 10.5194/acp-22-3911-2022
- Emissions from the Oil and Gas Sectors, Coal Mining and Ruminant Farming Drive Methane Growth over the Past Three Decades N. CHANDRA et al. 10.2151/jmsj.2021-015
- A decade of GOSAT Proxy satellite CH<sub>4</sub> observations R. Parker et al. 10.5194/essd-12-3383-2020
- New contributions of measurements in Europe to the global inventory of the stable isotopic composition of methane M. Menoud et al. 10.5194/essd-14-4365-2022
- Estimating emissions of methane consistent with atmospheric measurements of methane and δ13C of methane S. Basu et al. 10.5194/acp-22-15351-2022
- Atmospheric methane and nitrous oxide: challenges alongthe path to Net Zero E. Nisbet et al. 10.1098/rsta.2020.0457
- The consolidated European synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2017 A. Petrescu et al. 10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021
- How do Cl concentrations matter for the simulation of CH4 and δ13C(CH4) and estimation of the CH4 budget through atmospheric inversions? J. Thanwerdas et al. 10.5194/acp-22-15489-2022
- Decreasing seasonal cycle amplitude of methane in the northern high latitudes being driven by lower-latitude changes in emissions and transport E. Dowd et al. 10.5194/acp-23-7363-2023
- The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017 M. Saunois et al. 10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020
- Quantification of methane emissions from hotspots and during COVID-19 using a global atmospheric inversion J. McNorton et al. 10.5194/acp-22-5961-2022
- Global methane budget and trend, 2010–2017: complementarity of inverse analyses using in situ (GLOBALVIEWplus CH<sub>4</sub> ObsPack) and satellite (GOSAT) observations X. Lu et al. 10.5194/acp-21-4637-2021
- On the Causes and Consequences of Recent Trends in Atmospheric Methane H. Schaefer 10.1007/s40641-019-00140-z
- An increase in methane emissions from tropical Africa between 2010 and 2016 inferred from satellite data M. Lunt et al. 10.5194/acp-19-14721-2019
- Atmospheric-methane source and sink sensitivity analysis using Gaussian process emulation A. Stell et al. 10.5194/acp-21-1717-2021
- Large Methane Emission Fluxes Observed From Tropical Wetlands in Zambia J. Shaw et al. 10.1029/2021GB007261
- A Synthesis Inversion to Constrain Global Emissions of Two Very Short Lived Chlorocarbons: Dichloromethane, and Perchloroethylene T. Claxton et al. 10.1029/2019JD031818
- Global distribution of methane emissions, emission trends, and OH concentrations and trends inferred from an inversion of GOSAT satellite data for 2010–2015 J. Maasakkers et al. 10.5194/acp-19-7859-2019
- Advancing Scientific Understanding of the Global Methane Budget in Support of the Paris Agreement A. Ganesan et al. 10.1029/2018GB006065
- Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the interannual variability of methane and tropospheric ozone M. Rowlinson et al. 10.5194/acp-19-8669-2019
- Accelerating methane growth rate from 2010 to 2017: leading contributions from the tropics and East Asia Y. Yin et al. 10.5194/acp-21-12631-2021
- Large Methane Emissions From the Pantanal During Rising Water‐Levels Revealed by Regularly Measured Lower Troposphere CH4 Profiles M. Gloor et al. 10.1029/2021GB006964
- Impact of interannual and multidecadal trends on methane-climate feedbacks and sensitivity C. Cheng & S. Redfern 10.1038/s41467-022-31345-w
- ICLASS 1.1, a variational Inverse modelling framework for the Chemistry Land-surface Atmosphere Soil Slab model: description, validation, and application P. Bosman & M. Krol 10.5194/gmd-16-47-2023
- Variational inverse modeling within the Community Inversion Framework v1.1 to assimilate <i>δ</i><sup>13</sup>C(CH<sub>4</sub>) and CH<sub>4</sub>: a case study with model LMDz-SACS J. Thanwerdas et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-4831-2022
- Atmospheric data support a multi-decadal shift in the global methane budget towards natural tropical emissions A. Drinkwater et al. 10.5194/acp-23-8429-2023
Discussed (final revised paper)
Discussed (preprint)
Latest update: 10 Dec 2023
Short summary
Since 2007 atmospheric methane (CH4) has been unexpectedly increasing following a 6-year hiatus. We have used an atmospheric model to attribute regional sources and global sinks of CH4 using observations for the 2003–2015 period. Model results show the renewed growth is best explained by decreased atmospheric removal, decreased biomass burning emissions, and an increased energy sector (mainly from Africa–Middle East and Southern Asia–Oceania) and wetland emissions (mainly from northern Eurasia).
Since 2007 atmospheric methane (CH4) has been unexpectedly increasing following a 6-year hiatus....
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Final-revised paper
Preprint