Articles | Volume 18, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15471-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15471-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Oct 2018
Research article |
| 29 Oct 2018
| 29 Oct 2018
The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous US at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways
Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
Tanya L. Spero
Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
Jared H. Bowden
Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
Megan S. Mallard
Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
Patrick D. Dolwick
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
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Cited
37 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Rapid Estimation of Climate–Air Quality Interactions in Integrated Assessment Using a Response Surface Model S. Eastham et al. 10.1021/acsenvironau.2c00054
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- Evaluation effect climate parameters change on hydropower production and energy demand by RCPs scenarios and the Developed Pathfinder (DPA) algorithm J. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.egyr.2021.08.136
- Characterizing Changes in Eastern U.S. Pollution Events in a Warming World A. Fiore et al. 10.1029/2021JD035985
- Spatial distributed lag data fusion for estimating ambient air pollution J. Warren et al. 10.1214/20-AOAS1399
- Climate Change and Air Pollution: Translating Their Interplay into Present and Future Mortality Risk for Rome and Milan Municipalities M. Michetti et al. 10.2139/ssrn.3977590
- Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach A. Jalowska et al. 10.1038/s41612-021-00176-9
- Modeling future asthma attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in a changing climate: a health impact assessment N. Nassikas et al. 10.1007/s11869-022-01155-6
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- The Role of Ozone as a Mediator of the Relationship Between Heat Waves and Mortality in 15 French Urban Areas A. Alari et al. 10.1093/aje/kwad032
- Climate Change Penalty to Ozone Air Quality: Review of Current Understandings and Knowledge Gaps T. Fu & H. Tian 10.1007/s40726-019-00115-6
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- Regional temperature-ozone relationships across the U.S. under multiple climate and emissions scenarios C. Nolte et al. 10.1080/10962247.2021.1970048
- Shift in Peaks of PAH‐Associated Health Risks From East Asia to South Asia and Africa in the Future S. Lou et al. 10.1029/2022EF003185
- Associations Between Simulated Future Changes in Climate, Air Quality, and Human Health N. Fann et al. 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.32064
- Projected increases in wildfires may challenge regulatory curtailment of PM2.5 over the eastern US by 2050 C. Sarangi et al. 10.5194/acp-23-1769-2023
- Projections of Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed P. Campbell et al. 10.1029/2019JG005203
- Assessing the impact of climate change on summertime tropospheric ozone in the Eastern Mediterranean: Insights from meteorological and air quality modeling R. Rezaei et al. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121036
- Review on Polymeric, Inorganic, and Composite Materials for Air Filters: From Processing to Properties L. Henning et al. 10.1002/aesr.202100005
- Changes in concentrations of fine and coarse particles under the CO2-induced global warming D. Yang et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104637
- Characterizing and quantifying uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts on air quality J. East et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8d17
- Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas I. Losada Carreño et al. 10.1007/s10584-020-02891-3
- Decadal Application of WRF/Chem under Future Climate and Emission Scenarios: Impacts of Technology-Driven Climate and Emission Changes on Regional Meteorology and Air Quality C. Jena et al. 10.3390/atmos14020225
- Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models P. Zanis et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34
- Modeling the Air Pollution and Aerosol‐PBL Interactions Over China Using a Variable‐Resolution Global Model M. Yue et al. 10.1029/2023JD039130
- Resolving and Predicting Neighborhood Vulnerability to Urban Heat and Air Pollution: Insights From a Pilot Project of Community Science J. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021GH000575
- Modeling past and future spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen across the contiguous United States X. Ren et al. 10.3389/falgy.2022.959594
- Impact of climate change on paediatric respiratory health: pollutants and aeroallergens K. Domingo et al. 10.1183/16000617.0249-2023
- Development of a semi-mechanistic allergenic pollen emission model T. Cai et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.243
- Projections of future wildfires impacts on air pollutants and air toxics in a changing climate over the western United States C. Yang et al. 10.1016/j.envpol.2022.119213
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- The impact of emissions and climate change on future ozone concentrations in the USA M. Moghani & C. Archer 10.1007/s11869-020-00900-z
- Meteorology and Climate Influences on Tropospheric Ozone: a Review of Natural Sources, Chemistry, and Transport Patterns X. Lu et al. 10.1007/s40726-019-00118-3
34 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Rapid Estimation of Climate–Air Quality Interactions in Integrated Assessment Using a Response Surface Model S. Eastham et al. 10.1021/acsenvironau.2c00054
- Estimating PM2.5-related premature mortality and morbidity associated with future wildfire emissions in the western US J. Neumann et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abe82b
- Assessing the climate and air quality effects of future aerosol mitigation in India using a global climate model combined with statistical downscaling T. Miinalainen et al. 10.5194/acp-23-3471-2023
- Evaluation effect climate parameters change on hydropower production and energy demand by RCPs scenarios and the Developed Pathfinder (DPA) algorithm J. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.egyr.2021.08.136
- Characterizing Changes in Eastern U.S. Pollution Events in a Warming World A. Fiore et al. 10.1029/2021JD035985
- Spatial distributed lag data fusion for estimating ambient air pollution J. Warren et al. 10.1214/20-AOAS1399
- Climate Change and Air Pollution: Translating Their Interplay into Present and Future Mortality Risk for Rome and Milan Municipalities M. Michetti et al. 10.2139/ssrn.3977590
- Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach A. Jalowska et al. 10.1038/s41612-021-00176-9
- Modeling future asthma attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in a changing climate: a health impact assessment N. Nassikas et al. 10.1007/s11869-022-01155-6
- Climate change and air pollution: Translating their interplay into present and future mortality risk for Rome and Milan municipalities M. Michetti et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154680
- CO2 fertilization of crops offsets yield losses due to future surface ozone damage and climate change F. Leung et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac7246
- Evidence of air pollution-related ocular signs and altered inflammatory cytokine profile of the ocular surface in Beijing D. Jing et al. 10.1038/s41598-022-23294-7
- The Role of Ozone as a Mediator of the Relationship Between Heat Waves and Mortality in 15 French Urban Areas A. Alari et al. 10.1093/aje/kwad032
- Climate Change Penalty to Ozone Air Quality: Review of Current Understandings and Knowledge Gaps T. Fu & H. Tian 10.1007/s40726-019-00115-6
- Technical note: An assessment of the performance of statistical bias correction techniques for global chemistry–climate model surface ozone fields C. Staehle et al. 10.5194/acp-24-5953-2024
- Ozone-related asthma emergency department visits in the US in a warming climate N. Nassikas et al. 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109206
- Regional temperature-ozone relationships across the U.S. under multiple climate and emissions scenarios C. Nolte et al. 10.1080/10962247.2021.1970048
- Shift in Peaks of PAH‐Associated Health Risks From East Asia to South Asia and Africa in the Future S. Lou et al. 10.1029/2022EF003185
- Associations Between Simulated Future Changes in Climate, Air Quality, and Human Health N. Fann et al. 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.32064
- Projected increases in wildfires may challenge regulatory curtailment of PM2.5 over the eastern US by 2050 C. Sarangi et al. 10.5194/acp-23-1769-2023
- Projections of Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed P. Campbell et al. 10.1029/2019JG005203
- Assessing the impact of climate change on summertime tropospheric ozone in the Eastern Mediterranean: Insights from meteorological and air quality modeling R. Rezaei et al. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121036
- Review on Polymeric, Inorganic, and Composite Materials for Air Filters: From Processing to Properties L. Henning et al. 10.1002/aesr.202100005
- Changes in concentrations of fine and coarse particles under the CO2-induced global warming D. Yang et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104637
- Characterizing and quantifying uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts on air quality J. East et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8d17
- Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas I. Losada Carreño et al. 10.1007/s10584-020-02891-3
- Decadal Application of WRF/Chem under Future Climate and Emission Scenarios: Impacts of Technology-Driven Climate and Emission Changes on Regional Meteorology and Air Quality C. Jena et al. 10.3390/atmos14020225
- Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models P. Zanis et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34
- Modeling the Air Pollution and Aerosol‐PBL Interactions Over China Using a Variable‐Resolution Global Model M. Yue et al. 10.1029/2023JD039130
- Resolving and Predicting Neighborhood Vulnerability to Urban Heat and Air Pollution: Insights From a Pilot Project of Community Science J. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021GH000575
- Modeling past and future spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen across the contiguous United States X. Ren et al. 10.3389/falgy.2022.959594
- Impact of climate change on paediatric respiratory health: pollutants and aeroallergens K. Domingo et al. 10.1183/16000617.0249-2023
- Development of a semi-mechanistic allergenic pollen emission model T. Cai et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.243
- Projections of future wildfires impacts on air pollutants and air toxics in a changing climate over the western United States C. Yang et al. 10.1016/j.envpol.2022.119213
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Natural Variability in Projections of Climate Change Impacts on Fine Particulate Matter Pollution B. Pienkosz et al. 10.1029/2019EF001195
- The impact of emissions and climate change on future ozone concentrations in the USA M. Moghani & C. Archer 10.1007/s11869-020-00900-z
- Meteorology and Climate Influences on Tropospheric Ozone: a Review of Natural Sources, Chemistry, and Transport Patterns X. Lu et al. 10.1007/s40726-019-00118-3
Latest update: 13 Jul 2025
Short summary
Changes in air pollution in the United States are simulated under three near-future climate scenarios. Widespread increases in average ozone levels are projected, with the largest increases during summer under the highest warming scenario. Increases are driven by higher temperatures and emissions from vegetation and are magnified at the upper end of the ozone distribution. The increases in ozone have potentially important implications for efforts to protect human health.
Changes in air pollution in the United States are simulated under three near-future climate...
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