Three-North Shelter Forest Program contribution to long-term increasing trends of biogenic isoprene emissions in northern China

Abstract. To assess the long-term trends of isoprene emissions in northern China and the impact of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program (TNRSF) on these trends, a database of historical biogenic isoprene emissions from 1982 to 2010 was developed for this region using a biogenic emission model for gases and aerosols. The total amount of the biogenic isoprene emissions during the 3 decades was 4.4 Tg in northern China and 1.6 Tg in the TNRSF, with annual emissions ranging from 132 000 to 176 000 t yr⁻¹ and from 45 000 to 70 000 t yr⁻¹, respectively, in the two regions. Isoprene emission fluxes have increased substantially in many areas of the TNRSF over the last 3 decades due to the growing trees and vegetation coverage, especially in the central north China region where the highest emission incline reached to 58 % from 1982 to 2010. Biogenic isoprene emissions produced from anthropogenic forests tended to surpass those produced from natural forests, such as boreal forests in northeastern China. The estimated isoprene emissions suggest that the TNRSF has altered the long-term emission trend in north China from a decreasing trend during 1982 to 2010 (slope  =  −0.533, R² = 0.05) to an increasing trend for the same period of time (slope  =  0.347, R² = 0.014), providing strong evidence for the change in the emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) induced by the human activities on decadal or longer timescales.