Articles | Volume 15, issue 10
Research article 29 May 2015
Research article | 29 May 2015
Temporal and spatial scaling impacts on extreme precipitation
B. Eggert et al.
No articles found.
Dmitry V. Sein, Anton Y. Dvornikov, Stanislav D. Martyanov, William Cabos, Vladimir A. Ryabchenko, Matthias Gröger, Daniela Jacob, Alok Kumar Mishra, and Pankaj Kumar
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss.,
Preprint under review for ESDShort summary
The effect of the marine biogeochemical variability upon the South Asian regional climate has been investigated. In the experiment where its full impact is activated, the average sea surface temperature is lower over most of the ocean. Including the biogeochemical coupling, the main impacts include the enhanced phytoplankton primary production, a shallower thermocline, decreased SST and water temperature in subsurface layers.
Katja Weigel, Lisa Bock, Bettina K. Gier, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Kemisola Adeniyi, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Peter Berg, Louis-Philippe Caron, Irene Cionni, Susanna Corti, Niels Drost, Alasdair Hunter, Llorenç Lledó, Christian Wilhelm Mohr, Aytaç Paçal, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Valeriu Predoi, Marit Sandstad, Jana Sillmann, Andreas Sterl, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3159–3184,Short summary
This work presents new diagnostics for the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 on the hydrological cycle, extreme events, impact assessment, regional evaluations, and ensemble member selection. The ESMValTool v2.0 diagnostics are developed by a large community of scientists aiming to facilitate the evaluation and comparison of Earth system models (ESMs) with a focus on the ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
Jonas Olsson, Peter Berg, and Remco van de Beek
Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 59–64,Short summary
We have developed a tool to visualize rainfall observations, based on a combination of meteorological stations and weather radars, over Sweden in near real-time. By accumulating the rainfall in time (1–12 h) and space (hydrological basins), the tool is designed mainly for hydrological applications, e.g. to support flood forecasters and to facilitate post-event analyses. Despite evident uncertainties, different users have confirmed an added value of the tool in case studies.
Kevin Sieck, Christine Nam, Laurens M. Bouwer, Diana Rechid, and Daniela Jacob
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 457–468,Short summary
This paper presents new estimates of future extreme weather in Europe, including extreme heat, extreme rainfall and meteorological drought. These new estimates were achieved by repeating model calculations many times, thereby reducing uncertainties of these rare events at low levels of global warming at 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial temperature levels. These results are important, as they help to assess which weather extremes could increase at moderate warming levels and where.
Peter Berg, Fredrik Almén, and Denica Bozhinova
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1531–1545,Short summary
HydroGFD3.0 (Hydrological Global Forcing Data) is a data set of daily precipitation and temperature intended for use in hydrological modelling. The method uses different observational data sources to correct the variables from a model estimation of precipitation and temperature. An openly available data set covers the years 1979–2019, and times after this are available by request.
Torben Schmith, Peter Thejll, Peter Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Bo Christiansen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Marianne Sloth Madsen, and Christian Steger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 273–290,Short summary
European extreme precipitation is expected to change in the future; this is based on climate model projections. But, since climate models have errors, projections are uncertain. We study this uncertainty in the projections by comparing results from an ensemble of 19 climate models. Results can be used to give improved estimates of future extreme precipitation for Europe.
Marc Schleiss, Jonas Olsson, Peter Berg, Tero Niemi, Teemu Kokkonen, Søren Thorndahl, Rasmus Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen, Denica Bozhinova, and Seppo Pulkkinen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3157–3188,Short summary
A multinational assessment of radar's ability to capture heavy rain events is conducted. In total, six different radar products in Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland and Sweden were considered. Results show a fair agreement, with radar underestimating by 17 %-44 % on average compared with gauges. Despite being adjusted for bias, five of six radar products still exhibited strong conditional biases with intensities of 1–2% per mm/h. Median peak intensity bias was significantly higher, reaching 44 %–67%.
Peter Berg, Ole B. Christensen, Katharina Klehmet, Geert Lenderink, Jonas Olsson, Claas Teichmann, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 957–971,Short summary
A state-of-the-art regional climate model ensemble for Europe is investigated for extreme precipitation intensities. The models poorly reproduce short duration events of less than a few hours. Further, there is poor connection to some known hotspots for extreme cases. The model performance is much improved at 12 h durations. Projected future increases scale with seasonal mean temperature change, within a range from a few percent to over 10 percent per degree Celsius.
Stephen Blenkinsop, Hayley J. Fowler, Renaud Barbero, Steven C. Chan, Selma B. Guerreiro, Elizabeth Kendon, Geert Lenderink, Elizabeth Lewis, Xiao-Feng Li, Seth Westra, Lisa Alexander, Richard P. Allan, Peter Berg, Robert J. H. Dunn, Marie Ekström, Jason P. Evans, Greg Holland, Richard Jones, Erik Kjellström, Albert Klein-Tank, Dennis Lettenmaier, Vimal Mishra, Andreas F. Prein, Justin Sheffield, and Mari R. Tye
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 117–126,Short summary
Measurements of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) rainfall totals are essential if we are to understand short, intense bursts of rainfall that cause flash floods. We might expect the intensity of such events to increase in a warming climate but these are poorly realised in projections of future climate change. The INTENSE project is collating a global dataset of hourly rainfall measurements and linking with new developments in climate models to understand the characteristics and causes of these events.
Erik Kjellström, Grigory Nikulin, Gustav Strandberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Daniela Jacob, Klaus Keuler, Geert Lenderink, Erik van Meijgaard, Christoph Schär, Samuel Somot, Silje Lund Sørland, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 459–478,Short summary
Based on high-resolution regional climate models we investigate European climate change at 1.5 and 2 °C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels. Considerable near-surface warming exceeding that of the global mean is found for most of Europe, already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming level. Changes in precipitation and near-surface wind speed are identified. The 1.5 °C of warming level shows significantly less change compared to the 2 °C level, indicating the importance of mitigation.
Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Tiina Markkanen, Kevin Sieck, Daniela Jacob, Johanna Korhonen, Petri Räisänen, Yao Gao, Jaakko Ahola, Hannele Korhonen, Ari Laaksonen, and Jussi Kaurola
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1321–1342,Short summary
The regional climate model REMO was coupled with the FLake lake model to include an interactive treatment of lakes. Using this new version, the Fenno-Scandinavian climate and lake characteristics were studied. Our results show that overall the new model version improves the representation of the Fenno-Scandinavian climate in terms of 2 m temperature and precipitation and that the model can reproduce surface water temperature, ice depth and ice season length with reasonably high accuracy.
Peter Berg, Chantal Donnelly, and David Gustafsson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 989–1000,Short summary
A new product (Global Forcing Data, GFD) that provides bias-adjusted meteorological forcing data for impact models, such as hydrological models, is presented. The main novelty with the product is the near-real time updating of the data which allows more up-to-date impact modeling. This is performed by combining climatological data sets with climate monitoring data sets. The potential in using the data to initialize hydrological forecasts is further investigated.
Susanne Schuck-Zöller, Jörg Cortekar, and Daniela Jacob
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 305–312,Short summary
Climate services and other fields, that are used to integrate the users in research activities (co-creation), are pledging for existing evaluation methods to be widened up. The authors harmonize the different elements of evaluation in an evaluation
cascade, scaling down from very general evaluation dimensions to tangible assessment methods and suggest how to proceed in developing evaluation criteria and indicators. Two examples demonstrate how co-creation of knowledge could be assessed.
Rieke Heinze, Christopher Moseley, Lennart Nils Böske, Shravan Kumar Muppa, Vera Maurer, Siegfried Raasch, and Bjorn Stevens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7083–7109,Short summary
High-resolution multi-week simulations of a measurement campaign are evaluated with respect to mean boundary layer quantities and turbulence statistics. Two models are used in a semi-idealized setup through forcing, with output from a coarser-scale model to account for the larger-scale conditions. The boundary layer depth is in principal agreement with observations. Turbulence statistics like variance profiles agree satisfactorily with measurements.
William J. Gutowski Jr., Filippo Giorgi, Bertrand Timbal, Anne Frigon, Daniela Jacob, Hyun-Suk Kang, Krishnan Raghavan, Boram Lee, Christopher Lennard, Grigory Nikulin, Eleanor O'Rourke, Michel Rixen, Silvina Solman, Tannecia Stephenson, and Fredolin Tangang
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4087–4095,Short summary
The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is a diagnostic MIP in CMIP6. CORDEX builds on a foundation of previous downscaling intercomparison projects to provide a common framework for downscaling activities around the world. The CORDEX Regional Challenges provide a focus for downscaling research and a basis for making use of CMIP6 global output to produce downscaled projected changes in regional climates, and assess sources of uncertainties in the projections.
E. Katragkou, M. García-Díez, R. Vautard, S. Sobolowski, P. Zanis, G. Alexandri, R. M. Cardoso, A. Colette, J. Fernandez, A. Gobiet, K. Goergen, T. Karacostas, S. Knist, S. Mayer, P. M. M. Soares, I. Pytharoulis, I. Tegoulias, A. Tsikerdekis, and D. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 603–618,
P. Berg, R. Döscher, and T. Koenigk
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 849–859,
Related subject area
Subject: Clouds and Precipitation | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)Statistical properties of a stochastic model of eddy hoppingUnderstanding the model representation of clouds based on visible and infrared satellite observationsImpact of high- and low-vorticity turbulence on cloud–environment mixing and cloud microphysics processesPreconditioning of overcast-to-broken cloud transitions by riming in marine cold air outbreaksAitken mode particles as CCN in aerosol- and updraft-sensitive regimes of cloud droplet formationIce multiplication from ice–ice collisions in the high Arctic: sensitivity to ice habit, rimed fraction, ice type and uncertainties in the numerical description of the processThe climate impact of COVID-19-induced contrail changesA large-eddy simulation study of deep-convection initiation through the collision of two sea-breeze frontsSupersaturation, buoyancy, and moist convective dynamicsSoot PCF: pore condensation and freezing framework for soot aggregatesEnvironmental sensitivities of shallow-cumulus dilution – Part 2: Vertical wind profileAir traffic and contrail changes over Europe during COVID-19: a model studyIs a more physical representation of aerosol activation needed for simulations of fog?Microphysical processes producing high ice water contents (HIWCs) in tropical convective clouds during the HAIC-HIWC field campaign: evaluation of simulations using bulk microphysical schemesOverview towards improved understanding of the mechanisms leading to heavy precipitation in the Western Mediterranean: lessons learned from HyMeXImpacts of secondary ice production on Arctic mixed-phase clouds based on ARM observations and CAM6 single-column model simulationsThe temperature dependence of ice-nucleating particle concentrations affects the radiative properties of tropical convective cloud systemsThe behavior of high-CAPE (convective available potential energy) summer convection in large-domain large-eddy simulations with ICONCloud droplet diffusional growth in homogeneous isotropic turbulence: bin microphysics versus Lagrangian super-droplet simulationsThe importance of Aitken mode aerosol particles for cloud sustenance in the summertime high Arctic – a simulation study supported by observational dataSensitivity of mixed-phase moderately deep convective clouds to parameterizations of ice formation – an ensemble perspectiveShallow cumulus cloud feedback in large eddy simulations – bridging the gap to storm-resolving modelsImpacts of cloud microphysics parameterizations on simulated aerosol–cloud interactions for deep convective clouds over HoustonCold cloud microphysical process rates in a global chemistry–climate modelPrecipitation enhancement in stratocumulus clouds through airborne seeding: sensitivity analysis by UCLALES-SALSASecondary ice production in summer clouds over the Antarctic coast: an underappreciated process in atmospheric modelsOpinion: Cloud-phase climate feedback and the importance of ice-nucleating particlesOn the ice-nucleating potential of warm hydrometeors in mixed-phase cloudsThe enhancement of droplet collision by electric charges and atmospheric electric fieldsCloud adjustments dominate the overall negative aerosol radiative effects of biomass burning aerosols in UKESM1 climate model simulations over the south-eastern AtlanticDependence of predictability of precipitation in the northwestern Mediterranean coastal region on the strength of synoptic controlThe decomposition of cloud–aerosol forcing in the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1)Sensitivity of warm clouds to large particles in measured marine aerosol size distributions – a theoretical studyHectometric-scale simulations of a Mediterranean heavy-precipitation event during the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) first Special Observation Period (SOP1)Urbanization-induced land and aerosol impacts on sea-breeze circulation and convective precipitationSnow-induced buffering in aerosol–cloud interactionsEnvironmental sensitivities of shallow-cumulus dilution – Part 1: Selected thermodynamic conditionsEmploying airborne radiation and cloud microphysics observations to improve cloud representation in ICON at kilometer-scale resolution in the ArcticAn idealized model sensitivity study on Dead Sea desertification with a focus on the impact on convectionModelling mixed-phase clouds with the large-eddy model UCLALES–SALSADevelopment of aerosol activation in the double-moment Unified Model and evaluation with CLARIFY measurementsSize dependence in chord characteristics from simulated and observed continental shallow cumulusImpact of aerosols and turbulence on cloud droplet growth: an in-cloud seeding case study using a parcel–DNS (direct numerical simulation) approachDiffusional growth of cloud droplets in homogeneous isotropic turbulence: DNS, scaled-up DNS, and stochastic modelDifferences in tropical high clouds among reanalyses: origins and radiative impactsVertical redistribution of moisture and aerosol in orographic mixed-phase cloudsImproving the Southern Ocean cloud albedo biases in a general circulation modelEvaluation of Southern Ocean cloud in the HadGEM3 general circulation model and MERRA-2 reanalysis using ship-based observationsEnsemble daily simulations for elucidating cloud–aerosol interactions under a large spread of realistic environmental conditionsAerosol indirect effects on the temperature–precipitation scaling
Izumi Saito, Takeshi Watanabe, and Toshiyuki Gotoh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13119–13130,Short summary
We provide various statistical properties for the stochastic model of eddy hopping, which is a novel cloud microphysical model that accounts for the effect of the supersaturation fluctuation at unresolved scales on the growth of cloud droplets and on spectral broadening in a turbulent cloud. Our results indicate that the model can be improved to have better fidelity to the reference data and to require less computational cost.
Stefan Geiss, Leonhard Scheck, Alberto de Lozar, and Martin Weissmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12273–12290,Short summary
This study demonstrates the benefits of using both visible and infrared satellite channels to evaluate clouds in numerical weather prediction models. Combining these highly resolved observations provides significantly more and complementary information than using only infrared observations. The visible observations are particularly sensitive to subgrid water clouds, which are not well constrained by other observations.
Bipin Kumar, Rahul Ranjan, Man-Kong Yau, Sudarsan Bera, and Suryachandra A. Rao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12317–12329,Short summary
The characteristics of turbulent clouds are affected by the entrainment of ambient dry air and its subsequent mixing. A turbulent flow generates vorticities of different intensities, and regions with high vorticity (HV) and low vorticity (LV) exist. This study provides a detailed analysis of different properties of turbulent flows and cloud droplets in the HV and LV regions in order to understand the impact of vorticity production on cloud microphysical and mixing processes.
Florian Tornow, Andrew S. Ackerman, and Ann M. Fridlind
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12049–12067,Short summary
Cold air outbreaks affect the local energy budget by forming bright boundary layer clouds that, once it rains, evolve into dimmer, broken cloud fields that are depleted of condensation nuclei – an evolution consistent with closed-to-open cell transitions. We find that cloud ice accelerates this evolution, primarily via riming prior to rain onset, which (1) reduces liquid water, (2) reduces condensation nuclei, and (3) leads to early precipitation cooling and moistening below cloud.
Mira L. Pöhlker, Minghui Zhang, Ramon Campos Braga, Ovid O. Krüger, Ulrich Pöschl, and Barbara Ervens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11723–11740,Short summary
Clouds cool our atmosphere. The role of small aerosol particles in affecting them represents one of the largest uncertainties in current estimates of climate change. Traditionally it is assumed that cloud droplets only form particles of diameters ~ 100 nm (
accumulation mode). Previous studies suggest that this can also occur in smaller particles (
Aitken mode). Our study provides a general framework to estimate under which aerosol and cloud conditions Aitken mode particles affect clouds.
Georgia Sotiropoulou, Luisa Ickes, Athanasios Nenes, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9741–9760,Short summary
Mixed-phase clouds are a large source of uncertainty in projections of the Arctic climate. This is partly due to the poor representation of the cloud ice formation processes. Implementing a parameterization for ice multiplication due to mechanical breakup upon collision of two ice particles in a high-resolution model improves cloud ice phase representation; however, cloud liquid remains overestimated.
Andrew Gettelman, Chieh-Chieh Chen, and Charles G. Bardeen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9405–9416,Short summary
The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant economic disruption in 2020 and severely impacted air traffic. We use a climate model to evaluate the effect of the reductions in aviation on climate in 2020. Contrails, in general, warm the planet, and COVID-19-related reductions in contrails cooled the land surface in 2020. The timing of reductions in aviation was important, and this may change how we think about the future effects of contrails.
Shizuo Fu, Richard Rotunno, Jinghua Chen, Xin Deng, and Huiwen Xue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9289–9308,Short summary
Deep-convection initiation (DCI) determines when and where deep convection develops and hence affects both weather and climate. However, our understanding of DCI is still limited. Here, we simulate DCI over a peninsula using large-eddy simulation and high-output frequency. We find that DCI is accomplished through the development of multiple generations of convection, and the earlier generation affects the later generation by producing downdrafts and cold pools.
Wojciech W. Grabowski and Hugh Morrison
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ACPShort summary
The manuscript provide a discussion of key elements of moist convective dynamics: cloud buoyancy, latent heating, precipitation, and entrainment. The motivation comes from recent discussions concerning differences of convective dynamics in polluted and pristine environments.
Claudia Marcolli, Fabian Mahrt, and Bernd Kärcher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7791–7843,Short summary
Pores are aerosol particle features that trigger ice nucleation, as they take up water by capillary condensation below water saturation that freezes at low temperatures. The pore ice can then grow into macroscopic ice crystals making up cirrus clouds. Here, we investigate the pores in soot aggregates responsible for pore condensation and freezing (PCF). Moreover, we present a framework to parameterize soot PCF that is able to predict the ice nucleation activity based on soot properties.
Sonja Drueke, Daniel J. Kirshbaum, and Pavlos Kollias
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ACPShort summary
This numerical study provides insights into the sensitivity of shallow-cumulus dilution to geostrophic vertical wind profile. The cumulus dilution is strongly sensitive to vertical wind shear in the cloud layer, with shallow cumuli being more diluted in sheared environments. On the other hand, wind shear in the subcloud layer leads to less diluted cumuli. The sensitivities are explained by jointly considering the impacts of vertical velocity and the properties of the entrained air.
Ulrich Schumann, Ian Poll, Roger Teoh, Rainer Koelle, Enrico Spinielli, Jarlath Molloy, George S. Koudis, Robert Baumann, Luca Bugliaro, Marc Stettler, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7429–7450,Short summary
The roughly 70 % reduction of air traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic from March–August 2020 compared to 2019 provides a test case for the relationship between air traffic density, contrails, and their radiative forcing of climate change. This paper investigates the induced traffic and contrail changes in a model study. Besides strong weather changes, the model results indicate aviation-induced cirrus and top-of-the-atmosphere irradiance changes, which can be tested with observations.
Craig Poku, Andrew N. Ross, Adrian A. Hill, Alan M. Blyth, and Ben Shipway
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7271–7292,Short summary
We present a new aerosol activation scheme suitable for modelling both fog and convective clouds. Most current activation schemes are designed for convective clouds, and we demonstrate that using them to model fog can negatively impact its life cycle. Our scheme has been used to model an observed fog case in the UK, where we demonstrate that a more physically based representation of aerosol activation is required to capture the transition to a deeper layer – more in line with observations.
Yongjie Huang, Wei Wu, Greg M. McFarquhar, Xuguang Wang, Hugh Morrison, Alexander Ryzhkov, Yachao Hu, Mengistu Wolde, Cuong Nguyen, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Jason Milbrandt, Alexei V. Korolev, and Ivan Heckman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6919–6944,Short summary
Numerous small ice crystals in the tropical convective storms are difficult to detect and could be potentially hazardous for commercial aircraft. This study evaluated the numerical models against the airborne observations and investigated the potential cloud processes that could lead to the production of these large numbers of small ice crystals. It is found that key microphysical processes are still lacking or misrepresented in current numerical models to realistically simulate the phenomenon.
Samira Khodayar, Silvio Davolio, Paolo Di Girolamo, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Emmanouil Flaounas, Nadia Fourrie, Keun-Ok Lee, Didier Ricard, Benoit Vie, Francois Bouttier, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, and Veronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ACPShort summary
Heavy precipitation (HP) constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Every year, recurrent events affect the area with fatal consequences. Despite this being a well-known issue, still open questions remain. The understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the modelling representation of the events must be improved. In this article we present the most recent lessons learned from the Hydrological cYcle in the Mediterranean eXperiment (HyMeX).
Xi Zhao, Xiaohong Liu, Vaughan T. J. Phillips, and Sachin Patade
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5685–5703,Short summary
Arctic mixed-phase clouds significantly influence the energy budget of the Arctic. We show that a climate model considering secondary ice production (SIP) can explain the observed cloud ice number concentrations, vertical distribution pattern, and probability density distribution of ice crystal number concentrations. The mixed-phase cloud occurrence and phase partitioning are also improved.
Rachel E. Hawker, Annette K. Miltenberger, Jonathan M. Wilkinson, Adrian A. Hill, Ben J. Shipway, Zhiqiang Cui, Richard J. Cotton, Ken S. Carslaw, Paul R. Field, and Benjamin J. Murray
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5439–5461,Short summary
The impact of aerosols on clouds is a large source of uncertainty for future climate projections. Our results show that the radiative properties of a complex convective cloud field in the Saharan outflow region are sensitive to the temperature dependence of ice-nucleating particle concentrations. This means that differences in the aerosol source or composition, for the same aerosol size distribution, can cause differences in the outgoing radiation from regions dominated by tropical convection.
Harald Rybka, Ulrike Burkhardt, Martin Köhler, Ioanna Arka, Luca Bugliaro, Ulrich Görsdorf, Ákos Horváth, Catrin I. Meyer, Jens Reichardt, Axel Seifert, and Johan Strandgren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4285–4318,Short summary
Estimating the impact of convection on the upper-tropospheric water budget remains a problem for models employing resolutions of several kilometers or more. A sub-kilometer high-resolution model is used to study summertime convection. The results suggest mostly close agreement with ground- and satellite-based observational data while slightly overestimating total frozen water path and anvil lifetime. The simulations are well suited to supplying information for parameterization development.
Wojciech W. Grabowski and Lois Thomas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4059–4077,Short summary
This paper presents a modeling study that investigates the impact of cloud turbulence on the diffusional growth of cloud droplets and compares modeling results to analytic solutions published in the past. The focus is on comparing the two microphysics modeling methodologies – the Eulerian bin microphysics and Lagrangian particle-based microphysics – and exposing their limitations.
Ines Bulatovic, Adele L. Igel, Caroline Leck, Jost Heintzenberg, Ilona Riipinen, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3871–3897,Short summary
We use detailed numerical modelling to show that small aerosol particles (diameters ~25–80 nm; so-called Aitken mode particles) significantly influence low-level cloud properties in the clean summertime high Arctic. The small particles can help sustain clouds when the concentration of larger particles is low (<10–20 cm-3). Measurements from four different observational campaigns in the high Arctic support the modelling results as they indicate that Aitken mode aerosols are frequently activated.
Annette K. Miltenberger and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3627–3642,Short summary
The formation of ice in clouds is an important processes in mixed-phase and ice-phase clouds. However, the representation of ice formation in numerical models is highly uncertain. In the last decade, several new parameterizations for heterogeneous freezing have been proposed. Here, we investigate the impact of the parameterization choice on the representation of the convective cloud field and compare the impact to that of initial condition uncertainty.
Jule Radtke, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Cathy Hohenegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3275–3288,Short summary
Shallow trade wind clouds are a key source of uncertainty to projections of the Earth's changing climate. We perform high-resolution simulations of trade cumulus and investigate how the representation and climate feedback of these clouds depend on the specific grid spacing. We find that the cloud feedback is positive when simulated with kilometre but near zero when simulated with hectometre grid spacing. These findings suggest that storm-resolving models may exaggerate the trade cloud feedback.
Yuwei Zhang, Jiwen Fan, Zhanqing Li, and Daniel Rosenfeld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2363–2381,Short summary
Impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on deep convective clouds (DCCs) and precipitation are examined using both the Morrison bulk and spectral bin microphysics (SBM) schemes. With the SBM scheme, anthropogenic aerosols notably invigorate convective intensity and precipitation, causing better agreement between the simulated DCCs and observations; this effect is absent with the Morrison scheme, mainly due to limitations of the saturation adjustment approach for droplet condensation and evaporation.
Sara Bacer, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Odran Sourdeval, Holger Tost, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1485–1505,Short summary
We investigate the relative importance of the rates of both microphysical processes and unphysical correction terms that act as sources or sinks of ice crystals in cold clouds. By means of numerical simulations performed with a global chemistry–climate model, we assess the relevance of these rates at global and regional scales. This estimation is of fundamental importance to assign priority to the development of microphysics parameterizations and compare model output with observations.
Juha Tonttila, Ali Afzalifar, Harri Kokkola, Tomi Raatikainen, Hannele Korhonen, and Sami Romakkaniemi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1035–1048,Short summary
The focus of this study is on rain enhancement by deliberate injection of small particles into clouds (
cloud seeding). The particles, usually released from an aircraft, are expected to enhance cloud droplet growth, but its practical feasibility is somewhat uncertain. To improve upon this, we simulate the seeding effects with a numerical model. The model reproduces the main features seen in field observations, with a strong sensitivity to the total mass of the injected particle material.
Georgia Sotiropoulou, Étienne Vignon, Gillian Young, Hugh Morrison, Sebastian J. O'Shea, Thomas Lachlan-Cope, Alexis Berne, and Athanasios Nenes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 755–771,Short summary
Summer clouds have a significant impact on the radiation budget of the Antarctic surface and thus on ice-shelf melting. However, these are poorly represented in climate models due to errors in their microphysical structure, including the number of ice crystals that they contain. We show that breakup from ice particle collisions can substantially magnify the ice crystal number concentration with significant implications for surface radiation. This process is currently missing in climate models.
Benjamin J. Murray, Kenneth S. Carslaw, and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 665–679,Short summary
The balance between the amounts of ice and supercooled water in clouds over the world's oceans strongly influences how much these clouds can dampen or amplify global warming. Aerosol particles which catalyse ice formation can dramatically reduce the amount of supercooled water in clouds; hence we argue that we need a concerted effort to improve our understanding of these ice-nucleating particles if we are to improve our predictions of climate change.
Michael Krayer, Agathe Chouippe, Markus Uhlmann, Jan Dušek, and Thomas Leisner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 561–575,Short summary
We address the phenomenon of ice enhancement in the vicinity of warm hydrometeors using highly accurate flow simulation techniques. It is found that the transiently supersaturated zones induced by the hydrometeor's wake are by far larger than what has been previously estimated. The ice enhancement is quantified on the micro- and macroscale, and its relevance is discussed. The results provided may contribute to a (currently unavailable) parametrization of the phenomenon.
Shian Guo and Huiwen Xue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 69–85,Short summary
Observations in previous studies show that cloud droplets carry electric charges. We are curious about whether the electric interaction enhances the collision of cloud droplets. The effect of the electric charge and atmospheric electric field on the raindrop-formation process is studied numerically. Results indicate that a cloud with a small droplet size is more sensitive to an electric charge and field, which could significantly trigger droplet collision and accelerate raindrop formation.
Haochi Che, Philip Stier, Hamish Gordon, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Lucia Deaconu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17–33,Short summary
The south-eastern Atlantic is semi-permanently covered by some of the largest stratocumulus clouds and is influenced by one-third of the biomass burning emissions from African fires. A UKEMS1 model simulation shows that the absorption effect of biomass burning aerosols is the most significant on clouds and radiation. The dominate cooling and rapid adjustments induced by the radiative effects of biomass burning aerosols result in an overall cooling in the south-eastern Atlantic.
Christian Keil, Lucie Chabert, Olivier Nuissier, and Laure Raynaud
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15851–15865,Short summary
During strong synoptic control, which dominates the weather on 80 % of the days in the 2-month HyMeX-SOP1 period, the domain-integrated precipitation predictability assessed with the normalized ensemble standard deviation is above average, the wet bias is smaller and the forecast quality is generally better. In contrast, the spatial forecast quality of the most intense precipitation in the afternoon, as quantified with its 95th percentile, is superior during weakly forced synoptic regimes.
Daniel P. Grosvenor and Kenneth S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15681–15724,Short summary
Particles arising from human activity interact with clouds and affect how much of the Sun's energy is reflected away. Lack of understanding about how to represent this in models leads to large uncertainties in climate predictions. We quantify cloud responses to particles in the latest UK Met Office climate model over the North Atlantic Ocean, showing that, in contrast to suggestions elsewhere, increases in cloud coverage and thickness are important over large areas.
Tom Dror, J. Michel Flores, Orit Altaratz, Guy Dagan, Zev Levin, Assaf Vardi, and Ilan Koren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15297–15306,Short summary
We used in situ aerosol measurements over the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Pacific to initialize a cloud model and study the impact of aerosol concentration and sizes on warm clouds. We show that high aerosol concentration increases cloud mass and reduces surface rain when giant particles (diameter > 9 µm) are present. The large aerosols changed the timing and magnitude of internal cloud processes and resulted in an enhanced evaporation below cloud base and dramatically reduced surface rain.
Olivier Nuissier, Fanny Duffourg, Maxime Martinet, Véronique Ducrocq, and Christine Lac
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14649–14667,Short summary
This present article demonstrates how numerical simulations with very high horizontal resolution (150 m) can contribute to better understanding the key physical processes (turbulence and microphysics) that lead to Mediterranean heavy precipitation.
Jiwen Fan, Yuwei Zhang, Zhanqing Li, Jiaxi Hu, and Daniel Rosenfeld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14163–14182,Short summary
We investigate the urbanization-induced land and aerosol impacts on convective clouds and precipitation over Houston. We find that Houston urbanization notably enhances storm intensity and precipitation, with the anthropogenic aerosol effect more significant. Urban land effect strengthens sea-breeze circulation, leading to a faster development of warm cloud into mixed-phase cloud and earlier rain. The anthropogenic aerosol effect accelerates the development of storms into deep convection.
Takuro Michibata, Kentaroh Suzuki, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13771–13780,Short summary
This work reveals that prognostic precipitation significantly reduces the magnitude of aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci), mainly due to the collection process associated with snowflakes and underlying cloud droplets. This precipitation-driven buffering effect, which is missing in traditional GCMs, can explain the model–observation discrepancy in ERFaci. These results underscore the necessity for a prognostic precipitation framework in GCMs for more reliable climate simulations.
Sonja Drueke, Daniel J. Kirshbaum, and Pavlos Kollias
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13217–13239,Short summary
This numerical study provides insights into selected environmental sensitivities of shallow-cumulus dilution. Among the parameters under consideration, the dilution of the cloud cores is strongly sensitive to continentality and cloud-layer relative humidity and weakly sensitive to subcloud- and cloud-layer depths. The impacts of all four parameters are interpreted using a similarity theory of shallow cumulus and buoyancy-sorting arguments.
Jan Kretzschmar, Johannes Stapf, Daniel Klocke, Manfred Wendisch, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13145–13165,Short summary
This study compares simulations with the ICON model at the kilometer scale to airborne radiation and cloud microphysics observations that have been derived during the ACLOUD aircraft campaign around Svalbard, Norway, in May/June 2017. We find an overestimated surface warming effect of clouds compared to the observations in our setup. This bias was reduced by considering subgrid-scale vertical motion in the activation of cloud condensation nuclei in the two-moment microphysical scheme used.
Samiro Khodayar and Johannes Hoerner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12011–12031,
Jaakko Ahola, Hannele Korhonen, Juha Tonttila, Sami Romakkaniemi, Harri Kokkola, and Tomi Raatikainen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11639–11654,Short summary
In this study, we present an improved cloud model that reproduces the behaviour of mixed-phase clouds containing liquid droplets and ice crystals in more detail than before. This model is a convenient computational tool that enables the study of phenomena that cannot fit into a laboratory. These clouds have a significant role in climate, but they are not yet properly understood. Here, we show the advantages of the new model in a case study focusing on Arctic mixed-phase clouds.
Hamish Gordon, Paul R. Field, Steven J. Abel, Paul Barrett, Keith Bower, Ian Crawford, Zhiqiang Cui, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Adrian A. Hill, Jonathan Taylor, Jonathan Wilkinson, Huihui Wu, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10997–11024,Short summary
The Met Office's Unified Model is widely used both for weather forecasting and climate prediction. We present the first version of the model in which both aerosol and cloud particle mass and number concentrations are allowed to evolve separately and independently, which is important for studying how aerosols affect weather and climate. We test the model against aircraft observations near Ascension Island in the Atlantic, focusing on how aerosols can "activate" to become cloud droplets.
Philipp J. Griewank, Thijs Heus, Neil P. Lareau, and Roel A. J. Neggers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10211–10230,Short summary
The idea that larger shallow cumulus clouds have stronger updrafts than small shallow cumulus clouds is as intuitive as it is old. In this paper we gather years of upward-pointing laser measurements from a plain in Oklahoma and combine them with 28 d of high-resolution simulations. Our approach, which has much more data than previous studies, confirms that updraft strength and cloud size are linked and that the simulations reproduce the observed cloud wind and moisture structure.
Sisi Chen, Lulin Xue, and Man-Kong Yau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10111–10124,Short summary
This study employs a parcel–DNS (direct numerical simulation) modeling framework to accurately resolve the aerosol–droplet–turbulence interactions in an ascending air parcel. The effect of turbulence, aerosol hygroscopicity, and aerosol mass loading on droplet growth and rain formation is investigated through a series of in-cloud seeding experiments in which hygroscopic particles were seeded near the cloud base.
Lois Thomas, Wojciech W. Grabowski, and Bipin Kumar
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9087–9100,Short summary
This work presents an extension of a classical small-scale modeling approach, direct numerical simulation (DNS), to large computational volumes, tens and hundreds of meters on the side. Diffusional growth of cloud droplets is more significantly affected by large scales of turbulent motions because vertical velocity perturbations associated with those scales result in larger and longer-lasting supersaturation perturbations that affect the spread of the droplet spectrum.
Jonathon S. Wright, Xiaoyi Sun, Paul Konopka, Kirstin Krüger, Bernard Legras, Andrea M. Molod, Susann Tegtmeier, Guang J. Zhang, and Xi Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8989–9030,Short summary
High clouds are influential in tropical climate. Although reanalysis cloud fields are essentially model products, they are indirectly constrained by observations and offer global coverage with direct links to advanced water and energy cycle metrics, giving them many useful applications. We describe how high cloud fields are generated in reanalyses, assess their realism and reliability in the tropics, and evaluate how differences in these fields affect other aspects of the reanalysis state.
Annette K. Miltenberger, Paul R. Field, Adrian H. Hill, and Andrew J. Heymsfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7979–8001,Short summary
Orographic wave clouds offer a natural laboratory to investigate cloud microphysical processes and their representation in atmospheric models. They impact the larger-scale flow by a vertical redistribution of moisture and aerosol. We use detailed observations from the ICE-L campaign to evaluate the representation of these clouds in a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model and explore the impact of environmental conditions on the vertical redistribution of moisture.
Vidya Varma, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Field, Kalli Furtado, Jonny Williams, and Patrick Hyder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7741–7751,Short summary
The present generation of global climate models has an insufficiently reflected short-wave radiation, especially over the Southern Ocean. This leads to an excessive heating of the ocean surface in the model, creating sea surface temperature biases and subsequent problems with atmospheric dynamics. Misrepresentation of clouds could be attributed to this radiation bias; we try to address this issue by slowing the growth rate of ice crystals and improving the supercooled liquid clouds in the model.
Peter Kuma, Adrian J. McDonald, Olaf Morgenstern, Simon P. Alexander, John J. Cassano, Sally Garrett, Jamie Halla, Sean Hartery, Mike J. Harvey, Simon Parsons, Graeme Plank, Vidya Varma, and Jonny Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6607–6630,Short summary
We evaluate clouds over the Southern Ocean in the climate model HadGEM3 and reanalysis MERRA-2 using ship-based ceilometer and radiosonde observations. We find the models underestimate cloud cover by 18–25 %, with clouds below 2 km dominant in reality but lacking in the models. We find a strong link between clouds, atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature in observations but not in the models, implying that sub-grid processes do not generate enough cloud in response to these conditions.
Guy Dagan and Philip Stier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6291–6303,Short summary
Ensemble daily simulations for two separate month-long periods over a region near Barbados were conducted to investigate aerosol effects on cloud properties and the atmospheric energy budget. For each day, two simulations were conducted with low and high cloud droplet number concentrations representing clean and polluted conditions, respectively. These simulations are used to distinguish between properties that are robustly affected by changes in aerosol concentrations and those that are not.
Nicolas Da Silva, Sylvain Mailler, and Philippe Drobinski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6207–6223,Short summary
Microphysical effects of aerosols were found to weaken precipitation in a Euro-Mediterranean area. The present numerical study quantifies the processes that may be involved through the use of the temperature–precipitation relationship. It shows larger aerosol effects at low temperatures. At these temperatures, the process that contributes most is the increase in atmospheric stability through an enhanced aerosol cooling effect in the lower troposphere compared to the upper troposphere.
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