Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Golaz, J.-C.; Mauzerall, D. L.

doi:10.5194/acp-15-12681-2015

Articles | Volume 15, issue 22

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12681-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12681-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 22

Research article

|

16 Nov 2015

Research article |

| 16 Nov 2015

Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

D. M. Westervelt, L. W. Horowitz, V. Naik, J.-C. Golaz, and D. L. Mauzerall

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Total article views: 12,344 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	Supplement	BibTeX	EndNote
5,359	6,609	376	12,344	928	215	275

HTML: 5,359
PDF: 6,609
XML: 376
Total: 12,344
Supplement: 928
BibTeX: 215
EndNote: 275

Views and downloads (calculated since 27 Mar 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Mar 2015	128	58	5	191
Apr 2015	123	77	5	205
May 2015	14	28	3	45
Jun 2015	20	10	4	34
Jul 2015	24	12	1	37
Aug 2015	11	3	3	17
Sep 2015	10	15	6	31
Oct 2015	16	10	0	26
Nov 2015	214	165	14	393
Dec 2015	63	88	5	156
Jan 2016	75	74	4	153
Feb 2016	40	53	3	96
Mar 2016	48	55	1	104
Apr 2016	19	37	1	57
May 2016	18	35	0	53
Jun 2016	10	34	2	46
Jul 2016	13	25	3	41
Aug 2016	12	15	0	27
Sep 2016	16	21	0	37
Oct 2016	25	21	0	46
Nov 2016	16	23	0	39
Dec 2016	7	17	0	24
Jan 2017	26	26	6	58
Feb 2017	21	17	7	45
Mar 2017	25	31	5	61
Apr 2017	28	23	6	57
May 2017	28	19	8	55
Jun 2017	37	20	6	63
Jul 2017	23	6	4	33
Aug 2017	14	33	4	51
Sep 2017	11	17	1	29
Oct 2017	16	26	3	45
Nov 2017	16	33	2	51
Dec 2017	12	74	5	91
Jan 2018	13	43	4	60
Feb 2018	14	38	3	55
Mar 2018	16	38	5	59
Apr 2018	11	47	2	60
May 2018	16	69	1	86
Jun 2018	8	71	7	86
Jul 2018	11	51	3	65
Aug 2018	22	60	2	84
Sep 2018	21	56	5	82
Oct 2018	26	80	5	111
Nov 2018	15	82	3	100
Dec 2018	11	43	3	57
Jan 2019	8	38	4	50
Feb 2019	9	42	2	53
Mar 2019	11	46	4	61
Apr 2019	6	65	1	72
May 2019	12	30	9	51
Jun 2019	10	40	1	51
Jul 2019	22	43	4	69
Aug 2019	9	31	4	44
Sep 2019	17	47	1	65
Oct 2019	24	37	4	65
Nov 2019	13	39	2	54
Dec 2019	13	105	3	121
Jan 2020	9	80	3	92
Feb 2020	13	134	2	149
Mar 2020	12	77	2	91
Apr 2020	6	63	0	69
May 2020	12	92	0	104
Jun 2020	32	34	1	67
Jul 2020	36	19	7	62
Aug 2020	14	28	2	44
Sep 2020	7	62	1	70
Oct 2020	21	31	2	54
Nov 2020	17	40	1	58
Dec 2020	12	29	6	47
Jan 2021	24	44	3	71
Feb 2021	13	52	2	67
Mar 2021	7	50	6	63
Apr 2021	10	48	1	59
May 2021	26	50	5	81
Jun 2021	23	43	4	70
Jul 2021	7	44	3	54
Aug 2021	22	51	3	76
Sep 2021	20	54	1	75
Oct 2021	13	74	5	92
Nov 2021	20	66	0	86
Dec 2021	21	35	3	59
Jan 2022	21	30	1	52
Feb 2022	12	37	3	52
Mar 2022	27	40	2	69
Apr 2022	19	48	5	72
May 2022	28	46	1	75
Jun 2022	17	58	0	75
Jul 2022	59	73	5	137
Aug 2022	56	24	0	80
Sep 2022	52	52	1	105
Oct 2022	73	32	4	109
Nov 2022	76	43	0	119
Dec 2022	68	36	0	104
Jan 2023	71	46	1	118
Feb 2023	89	56	0	145
Mar 2023	73	44	1	118
Apr 2023	37	54	0	91
May 2023	54	66	0	120
Jun 2023	68	31	1	100
Jul 2023	64	60	1	125
Aug 2023	73	45	2	120
Sep 2023	106	93	3	202
Oct 2023	214	64	3	281
Nov 2023	186	48	3	237
Dec 2023	74	66	4	144
Jan 2024	60	122	0	182
Feb 2024	87	73	0	160
Mar 2024	78	67	1	146
Apr 2024	88	108	4	200
May 2024	54	64	3	121
Jun 2024	60	56	3	119
Jul 2024	40	47	2	89
Aug 2024	55	77	1	133
Sep 2024	34	88	0	122
Oct 2024	44	66	1	111
Nov 2024	33	60	2	95
Dec 2024	53	67	0	120
Jan 2025	52	111	4	167
Feb 2025	67	38	5	110
Mar 2025	75	34	8	117
Apr 2025	73	39	0	112
May 2025	81	22	0	103
Jun 2025	99	37	2	138
Jul 2025	72	37	2	111
Aug 2025	83	41	7	131
Sep 2025	102	29	2	133
Oct 2025	84	60	0	144
Nov 2025	75	52	5	132
Dec 2025	78	94	1	173
Jan 2026	100	78	13	191
Feb 2026	82	75	6	163
Mar 2026	19	33	1	53

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 27 Mar 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Mar 2015	128	58	5	191
Apr 2015	123	77	5	205
May 2015	14	28	3	45
Jun 2015	20	10	4	34
Jul 2015	24	12	1	37
Aug 2015	11	3	3	17
Sep 2015	10	15	6	31
Oct 2015	16	10	0	26
Nov 2015	214	165	14	393
Dec 2015	63	88	5	156
Jan 2016	75	74	4	153
Feb 2016	40	53	3	96
Mar 2016	48	55	1	104
Apr 2016	19	37	1	57
May 2016	18	35	0	53
Jun 2016	10	34	2	46
Jul 2016	13	25	3	41
Aug 2016	12	15	0	27
Sep 2016	16	21	0	37
Oct 2016	25	21	0	46
Nov 2016	16	23	0	39
Dec 2016	7	17	0	24
Jan 2017	26	26	6	58
Feb 2017	21	17	7	45
Mar 2017	25	31	5	61
Apr 2017	28	23	6	57
May 2017	28	19	8	55
Jun 2017	37	20	6	63
Jul 2017	23	6	4	33
Aug 2017	14	33	4	51
Sep 2017	11	17	1	29
Oct 2017	16	26	3	45
Nov 2017	16	33	2	51
Dec 2017	12	74	5	91
Jan 2018	13	43	4	60
Feb 2018	14	38	3	55
Mar 2018	16	38	5	59
Apr 2018	11	47	2	60
May 2018	16	69	1	86
Jun 2018	8	71	7	86
Jul 2018	11	51	3	65
Aug 2018	22	60	2	84
Sep 2018	21	56	5	82
Oct 2018	26	80	5	111
Nov 2018	15	82	3	100
Dec 2018	11	43	3	57
Jan 2019	8	38	4	50
Feb 2019	9	42	2	53
Mar 2019	11	46	4	61
Apr 2019	6	65	1	72
May 2019	12	30	9	51
Jun 2019	10	40	1	51
Jul 2019	22	43	4	69
Aug 2019	9	31	4	44
Sep 2019	17	47	1	65
Oct 2019	24	37	4	65
Nov 2019	13	39	2	54
Dec 2019	13	105	3	121
Jan 2020	9	80	3	92
Feb 2020	13	134	2	149
Mar 2020	12	77	2	91
Apr 2020	6	63	0	69
May 2020	12	92	0	104
Jun 2020	32	34	1	67
Jul 2020	36	19	7	62
Aug 2020	14	28	2	44
Sep 2020	7	62	1	70
Oct 2020	21	31	2	54
Nov 2020	17	40	1	58
Dec 2020	12	29	6	47
Jan 2021	24	44	3	71
Feb 2021	13	52	2	67
Mar 2021	7	50	6	63
Apr 2021	10	48	1	59
May 2021	26	50	5	81
Jun 2021	23	43	4	70
Jul 2021	7	44	3	54
Aug 2021	22	51	3	76
Sep 2021	20	54	1	75
Oct 2021	13	74	5	92
Nov 2021	20	66	0	86
Dec 2021	21	35	3	59
Jan 2022	21	30	1	52
Feb 2022	12	37	3	52
Mar 2022	27	40	2	69
Apr 2022	19	48	5	72
May 2022	28	46	1	75
Jun 2022	17	58	0	75
Jul 2022	59	73	5	137
Aug 2022	56	24	0	80
Sep 2022	52	52	1	105
Oct 2022	73	32	4	109
Nov 2022	76	43	0	119
Dec 2022	68	36	0	104
Jan 2023	71	46	1	118
Feb 2023	89	56	0	145
Mar 2023	73	44	1	118
Apr 2023	37	54	0	91
May 2023	54	66	0	120
Jun 2023	68	31	1	100
Jul 2023	64	60	1	125
Aug 2023	73	45	2	120
Sep 2023	106	93	3	202
Oct 2023	214	64	3	281
Nov 2023	186	48	3	237
Dec 2023	74	66	4	144
Jan 2024	60	122	0	182
Feb 2024	87	73	0	160
Mar 2024	78	67	1	146
Apr 2024	88	108	4	200
May 2024	54	64	3	121
Jun 2024	60	56	3	119
Jul 2024	40	47	2	89
Aug 2024	55	77	1	133
Sep 2024	34	88	0	122
Oct 2024	44	66	1	111
Nov 2024	33	60	2	95
Dec 2024	53	67	0	120
Jan 2025	52	111	4	167
Feb 2025	67	38	5	110
Mar 2025	75	34	8	117
Apr 2025	73	39	0	112
May 2025	81	22	0	103
Jun 2025	99	37	2	138
Jul 2025	72	37	2	111
Aug 2025	83	41	7	131
Sep 2025	102	29	2	133
Oct 2025	84	60	0	144
Nov 2025	75	52	5	132
Dec 2025	78	94	1	173
Jan 2026	100	78	13	191
Feb 2026	82	75	6	163
Mar 2026	19	33	1	53

Latest update: 09 Mar 2026

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Short summary

Decreases in aerosols over the 21st century as projected by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) lead to increases up to 0.5 - 1 ºC in global temperature and up to 0.05 - 0.1 mm/day in global precipitation, depending strongly on present-day aerosol radiative forcing. In East Asia, future aerosol decreases could be responsible for 10-20% of the total temperature increase (30-40% with strong present-day aerosol forcing), even under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5).