Model calculated global, regional and megacity premature mortality due to air pollution

Abstract. Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃) has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. We estimate the premature mortality rates and the years of human life lost (YLL) caused by anthropogenic PM_2.5 and O₃ in 2005 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). This is based upon high-resolution global model calculations that resolve urban and industrial regions in greater detail compared to previous work. Results indicate that 69% of the global population is exposed to an annual mean anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentration of >10 μg m⁻³ (WHO guideline) and 33% to > 25 μg m⁻³ (EU directive). We applied an epidemiological health impact function and find that especially in large countries with extensive suburban and rural populations, air pollution-induced mortality rates have been underestimated given that previous studies largely focused on the urban environment. We calculate a global respiratory mortality of about 773 thousand/year (YLL ≈ 5.2 million/year), 186 thousand/year by lung cancer (YLL ≈ 1.7 million/year) and 2.0 million/year by cardiovascular disease (YLL ≈ 14.3 million/year). The global mean per capita mortality caused by air pollution is about 0.1% yr⁻¹. The highest premature mortality rates are found in the Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions (about 25% and 46% of the global rate, respectively) where more than a dozen of the most highly polluted megacities are located.