The evolution of shipping emissions and the costs of regulation changes in the northern EU area

Abstract. An extensive inventory of marine exhaust emissions is presented in the northern European emission control area (ECA) in 2009 and 2011. The emissions of SO_x, NO_x, CO₂, CO and PM_2.5 were evaluated using the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM). We have combined the information on individual vessel characteristics and position reports generated by the automatic identification system (AIS). The emission limitations from 2009 to 2011 have had a significant impact on reducing the emissions of both SO_x and PM_2.5. The predicted emissions of SO_x originated from IMO (International Maritime Organization)-registered marine traffic have been reduced by 29%, from 320 kt to 231 kt, in the ECA from 2009 to 2011. The corresponding predicted reduction of PM_2.5 emissions was 17%, from 72 kt to 61 kt. The highest CO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions in 2011 were located in the vicinity of the coast of the Netherlands, in the English Channel, near the south-eastern UK and along the busiest shipping lines in the Danish Straits and the Baltic Sea. The changes of emissions and the financial costs caused by various regulative actions since 2005 were also evaluated, based on the increased direct fuel costs. We also simulated the effects and direct costs associated with the forthcoming switch to low-sulfur distillate fuels in 2015. According to the projections for the future, there will be a reduction of 87% in SO_x emissions and a reduction of 48% in PM_2.5 emissions in 2015, compared with the corresponding shipping emissions in 2011 in the ECA. The corresponding relative increase in fuel costs for all IMO-registered shipping varied between 13% and 69%, depending on the development of the prices of fuels and the use of the sulfur scrubber equipment.