Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 599–609, 2011
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 599–609, 2011

  20 Jan 2011

20 Jan 2011

Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature

N. P. Gillett1, H. Akiyoshi2, S. Bekki3, P. Braesicke4, V. Eyring5, R. Garcia6, A. Yu. Karpechko7, C. A. McLinden8, O. Morgenstern4,9, D. A. Plummer1, J. A. Pyle4, E. Rozanov10,11, J. Scinocca1, and K. Shibata12 N. P. Gillett et al.
  • 1Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
  • 2National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
  • 3Service d'Aéronomie, Institut Pierre-Simone Laplace, Paris, France
  • 4University of Cambridge, Department of Chemistry, Cambridge/National Centre for Atmospheric Science, UK
  • 5Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
  • 6National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 7Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
  • 8Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada
  • 9National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand
  • 10Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
  • 11Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 12Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

Abstract. Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climate models with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and with anthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observed stratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection and attribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozone depleting substances and to natural forcings is detectable in observations, but the total column ozone response to greenhouse gas changes is not separately detectable. In the middle and upper stratosphere, simulated and observed SBUV/SAGE ozone changes are broadly consistent, and separate anthropogenic and natural responses are detectable in observations. The influence of ozone depleting substances and natural forcings can also be detected separately in observed lower stratospheric temperature, and the magnitudes of the simulated and observed responses to these forcings and to greenhouse gas changes are found to be consistent. In the mid and upper stratosphere the simulated natural and combined anthropogenic responses are detectable and consistent with observations, but the influences of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances could not be separately detected in our analysis.

Final-revised paper