COMET: a Lagrangian transport model for greenhouse gas emission estimation – forward model technique and performance for methane

Abstract. The Lagrangian transport model COMET has been developed to evaluate emission estimates based on atmospheric concentration observations. This paper describes the model and its application in modelling the methane concentrations at the European stations Cabauw and Macehead. The COMET model captures in most cases both synoptic and diurnal variations of the concentrations as a function of time and in absolute size quite well. The explained variability by COMET of the mixed layer concentration for Cabauw varies from 50% to 84%; for all hourly observations in 2002 the explained variability is 71% with a RMSE of 112 ppb. The explained variability for Macehead is 48%. The most important model parameters were tested for their influence on model performance, but in general the model is not very sensitive to variations within acceptable limits. For a regionally and locally polluted continental site the COMET model shows only a small bias and a moderate random error, and therefore is considered to capture the influence of the sources on the concentration variations quite well. It is therefore concluded that inverse methods and more specifically the COMET model is suitable to be applied in deriving independent estimates of greenhouse gas emissions using Source-Receptor relationships.