Health and Economic Impacts of Ozone Pollution in China: a provincial level analysis

Abstract. Many studies have reported associations between ozone pollution and morbidity and mortality, but few studies focus on the health and economic effects at China's regional level. This study evaluates the ozone pollution-related health impacts on China's national and provincial economy and compares them with the impacts from PM_2.5. We also explore the mitigation potential across 30 provinces of China. An integrated approach is developed that combines an air pollutant emission projection model (GAINS), an air quality model (GEOS-Chem), a health model using the latest exposure-response functions, medical prices and value of statistical life (VSL), and a general equilibrium model (CGE). Results show that lower income western provinces encounter severer health impacts and economic burdens due to high natural background levels of ozone pollution, whereas the impact in southern and central provinces is relatively lower. Without a control policy, in 2030 China will experience a 4.24 billion USD Gross Domestic Production (GDP) loss (equivalent to 0.034 %), and a 285 billion USD (equivalent to 2.34 % of GDP) life loss. In contrast, with a control policy, the GDP and VSLs loss will be reduced to 3.72 (0.030 %) and 242 billion USD (1.99 %), respectively. We conclude that health and economic impacts of ozone pollution are significantly lower than PM_2.5, but are much more difficult to mitigate. The Chinese government should promote the air pollution control policies that jointly reduce both PM_2.5 pollution and ozone pollution, and the public should adjust their lifestyle according to the air quality information.