Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33049-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33049-2015

  24 Nov 2015

24 Nov 2015

Review status: this preprint has been withdrawn by the authors.

North Atlantic Oscillation model projections and influence on tracer transport

S. Bacer1, T. Christoudias2, and A. Pozzer1 S. Bacer et al.
  • 1Atmospheric Chemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
  • 2Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus

Abstract. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays an important role in the climate variability of the Northern Hemisphere with significant consequences on pollutant transport. We study the influence of the NAO on the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants in the near past and in the future by considering simulations performed by the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) general circulation model. We analyze two model runs: a simulation with circulation dynamics nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data over a period of 35 years (1979–2013) and a simulation with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) boundary conditions over 150 years (1950–2099). The model is shown to reproduce the NAO spatial and temporal variability and to be comparable with observations. We find that the decadal variability in the NAO, which has been pronounced since 1950s until 1990, will continue to dominate in the future considering decadal periods, although no significant trends are present in the long term projection (100–150 years horizon). We do not find in the model projections any significant temporal trend of the NAO for the future, meaning that neither positive or negative phases will dominate. Tracers with idealised decay and emissions are considered to investigate the NAO effects on transport; it is shown that during the positive phase of the NAO, the transport from North America towards northern Europe is stronger and pollutants are shifted northwards over the Arctic and southwards over the Mediterranean and North Africa, with two distinct areas of removal and stagnation of pollutants.

This preprint has been withdrawn.

S. Bacer et al.

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Interactive discussion

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Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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S. Bacer et al.

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This preprint has been withdrawn.

Short summary
We investigate the temporal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern and its relation to the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants in the near past and in the future. We use a global climate circulation model in order to analyze the NAO signal and its correlation with pollutant concentrations. We find that the NAO is influenced by natural climate variability and that the NAO Indices may be used as indicators of (future) pollutant transport over Europe.
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